Let me share my view:
Last night the rate hike was implemented—25 bps, in line with expectations. After the announcement, the market didn’t see much volatility. There was a prior expectation of a drop, which is why I exited earlier in the 79–75K area, but last night BTC was able to hold above 75K even with Vosh’s (Waller’s) more hawkish press conference tone. This suggests BTC has relatively better downside resilience, but that is only in the short term.
Looking ahead: in September, another 25 bps rate hike is expected. Based on current conditions, the matrix suggests there will be at least one more hike this year. Out of 18 officials, 16 gave this expectation. In his remarks, Vosh also said that the current U.S. economy is strong, and rate hikes won’t affect the economy. Inflation has been too high for too long, and overall his tone was hawkish. As of now, the probability of a rate hike by October is around 50%.
Under the current environment, the near-term market is more likely to trade sideways. Bulls need to wait for a clearer positive catalyst. If in late September geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices fall, and things improve in October, that would be better—but we don’t have those signals yet.
For the current $BTC 行情, it’s trading range-bound. 75K is holding. Near-term resistance is at 77,300 and 78,400. Going forward, we should also pay close attention to the bond market. If 2Y and 10Y yields continue rising, and the 10Y stays above 5%, BTC will likely struggle to hold above 77K. Then we should be careful for a move down toward 75K–73K. Conversely, if 10Y yields start to fall and are suppressed back below 5%, and BTC re-establishes above 77K, you can continue to look for bearish pressure squeezing prices up toward 78–79K.
As for $XAU , the 4-hour chart is still in a downward correction phase. It currently doesn’t have the conditions for bottom-picking. Watch the watershed around 4380.
For $CL , watch news on geopolitical developments. Once there’s information about negotiations or a resolution, go short decisively—nobody likes high oil prices.
Last night the rate hike was implemented—25 bps, in line with expectations. After the announcement, the market didn’t see much volatility. There was a prior expectation of a drop, which is why I exited earlier in the 79–75K area, but last night BTC was able to hold above 75K even with Vosh’s (Waller’s) more hawkish press conference tone. This suggests BTC has relatively better downside resilience, but that is only in the short term.
Looking ahead: in September, another 25 bps rate hike is expected. Based on current conditions, the matrix suggests there will be at least one more hike this year. Out of 18 officials, 16 gave this expectation. In his remarks, Vosh also said that the current U.S. economy is strong, and rate hikes won’t affect the economy. Inflation has been too high for too long, and overall his tone was hawkish. As of now, the probability of a rate hike by October is around 50%.
Under the current environment, the near-term market is more likely to trade sideways. Bulls need to wait for a clearer positive catalyst. If in late September geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices fall, and things improve in October, that would be better—but we don’t have those signals yet.
For the current $BTC 行情, it’s trading range-bound. 75K is holding. Near-term resistance is at 77,300 and 78,400. Going forward, we should also pay close attention to the bond market. If 2Y and 10Y yields continue rising, and the 10Y stays above 5%, BTC will likely struggle to hold above 77K. Then we should be careful for a move down toward 75K–73K. Conversely, if 10Y yields start to fall and are suppressed back below 5%, and BTC re-establishes above 77K, you can continue to look for bearish pressure squeezing prices up toward 78–79K.
As for $XAU , the 4-hour chart is still in a downward correction phase. It currently doesn’t have the conditions for bottom-picking. Watch the watershed around 4380.
For $CL , watch news on geopolitical developments. Once there’s information about negotiations or a resolution, go short decisively—nobody likes high oil prices.
