Open the market software, with a screen full of colorful codes and thousands of choices, doesn’t it feel like looking for diamonds in a junkyard? Beginners think any option can rise, while veterans see pitfalls everywhere. Today, I won’t give you the 'wealth code', but I will provide you with a set of 'filters' and 'magnifying glasses' that I use myself, teaching you how to act like a detective and sift through the vast array of projects to find that 1% worth diving deeper into or even betting on.
Remember, our goal is to improve the win rate, not to hit the target every time. With this method, filter out 99% of the noise and focus on that 1% possibility.
Ten Key Points: From 'Watching the Excitement' to 'Seeing the Essence' of the Selection Technique
Key Point One: First Barrier: Track Filter, Fishing in a Pond with Many Fish
Don't first look at the specific fish (project); first look at which pond (track) has many fish and vibrant water. Choosing a track that is early, has real demand, and has significant future potential is ten times more important than struggling to find a 'micro-innovation' project in a red ocean track. For example, early DeFi, NFTs, and later Layer 2, AI + blockchain. In an ascending elevator, you are more likely to go up. Spend time studying the track first, then find the leaders within it.
Key Point Two: Team Detective Method, Investing is Investing in 'People'
White papers can be written by others, and code can be copied, but the background and capabilities of the team are hard to fake. I will dig deep like a detective:
Core members: Do they have successful entrepreneurial or well-known project experience? Is LinkedIn/GitHub verifiable?
Technical background: Does the CTO or core developer have a solid computer science/cryptography background?
Sustainable operation: Is the team anonymous or real-name? Anonymous projects require extreme caution, unless the code strength is extraordinary.
A reliable and execution-oriented team is the greatest guarantee for a project to navigate through bull and bear markets.
Key Point Three: Code 'Health Check Report,' Letting Data Speak
For projects with a certain technical threshold, I will check their GitHub repository:
Submission activity: Is the code continuously and regularly updated? A project that has been silent for months is dangerous.
Number of developers: Are there just a few people committing, or is there an active developer community?
Number of followers (Stars) and forks: This represents the attention and willingness to participate from the developer community.
Code does not lie; it is the most authentic reflection of a project's vitality.
Key Point Four: Token Model 'Three Soul Questions'
When you see any token, immediately ask yourself three questions:
What is its use? Is it for paying network fees? Participating in governance? Or is it just a 'ticket'? The more direct and strong the value capture logic, the better.
Who does it give to? In the token distribution plan, how much is reserved for the team and investors (is there a long unlock period causing selling pressure)? How much is for community incentives and ecological construction?
How 'hard' is it? What is the inflation rate? Is there unlimited issuance or a deflationary mechanism? An asset that is continuously diluted is difficult to appreciate in the long term.
Key Point Five: Quality of the Ecological 'Friend Circle'
When looking at a project, don't just look at itself; consider who it is 'playing' with.
Investment institutions: Are there any well-known, legitimate VC investments? VC endorsements are an important quality filter.
Partners: Who are its important partnerships with public chains, protocols, and companies? Is it deep cooperation or superficial 'poster collaboration'?
Community atmosphere: What are users discussing in its official community and forum? Is it technology, ecology, or are they just asking 'when will the price pump'? A high-quality ecology attracts high-quality users and developers.
Key Point Six: Financial 'Health Check'
A project is not charity; it needs money to survive. I will pay attention to:
Treasury status: How much money does the project team have left (usually measured in stablecoins or mainstream coins)? According to the current spending rate, how long can it survive? A project that runs out of funds can die suddenly at any time.
Revenue model: Does the project have real, sustainable income (such as transaction fees, service fees)? Or is it purely reliant on token issuance for financing? Projects that can generate their own revenue are more resilient.
Key Point Seven: First 'Simulated Holding,' then 'Real Money'
After the above screening, you may find a few 'desired candidates.' Don't rush to buy! Create an 'observation list,' add them to your watchlist, virtually buy them, and track them for 1-3 months. See if their price trends and project developments align with your judgment. This can help you avoid the 'FOMO' impulse and validate your insight over time.
Key Point Eight: Listening to the 'Opposition's' Voice
Don't just stay in the project's 'fan group.' Actively search for and read criticisms, doubts, and negative analyses about this project. A mature investor seriously considers opposing opinions. If you cannot counter these doubts, or if the project team cannot provide reasonable explanations, then you need to be highly cautious. Listening to both sides brings clarity, while bias leads to darkness.
Key Point Nine: Waiting for a 'Good Price'
Even if you find a perfect project, you must buy it at a 'good price.' What is a good price?
The market is generally in a bear market or a downturn.
The project itself is facing short-term negative news (non-lethal), and its price has been mistakenly killed.
The price is near a key long-term support level.
Buying something worth 1 yuan for 0.5 yuan is your only privilege as an investor.
Key Point Ten: Accepting 'Missed Opportunities'
Even after using all the above methods, you may still miss a hundredfold token. This is very normal! Your goal is to capture the portion of profits you can understand, not to capture all profits. Missing one token means the market has another opportunity. But if you rush into a project you don't understand because of FOMO and lose your capital, you may never have another chance. Missing out is always part of investing.
Finding potential stocks is a funnel-like selection process from 'surface' (track) to 'line' (team, technology) and then to 'point' (price, timing). It requires patience, research, and restraint. With this method, you may not find the one with the highest growth, but you will definitely avoid most pitfalls and find a few quality targets that allow you to sleep soundly.
If you think this 'macro to micro' selection framework is valuable and want to see how I specifically analyze a track or project, please follow me.@币圈罗盘 . In the next article, we will talk about (DCA: How I use the most 'foolish' method to beat 99% of 'smart people').
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