币圈罗盘

Last night, Bitcoin dropped 8% in a 15-minute candlestick, and my community instantly exploded. Some wailed, 'Half the profits are gone,' while others rubbed their hands together, ready to buy the dip. This kind of scenario has played out six times in the past three months, but each time, new traders get thrown off the bus.

To be honest, when I first started playing with cryptocurrencies, I also fell for these rapid drops and rises. In a bull market, a sudden drop causes panic selling, and in a bear market, a rebound leads to chasing high prices and getting trapped. It wasn't until I paid a six-figure math fee that I realized: the cruelty of the market lies in its ability to strike at the most painful points of human nature.

1. Why does the bull market always love to 'look back three steps'?

Yesterday, Bitcoin plunged to $86104 in a bearish candle, with over 150,000 people liquidated across the network, and my community erupted. Some lamented 'the principal halved,' while others secretly bought the dip. But to be honest, this kind of volatility for veteran investors is like catching a cold and fever; it's unpleasant, yet it's the market's immune system at work.

1. The Truth Behind the Crash: The 'Chain Reaction' of Leverage Liquidation
This decline appears to be driven by macroeconomic pressures (U.S. stocks falling, oil prices rising in a risk-off sentiment), but in reality, it's the domino effect of high-leverage positions collapsing. The worst off are those who chased the surge with over 20 times leverage; if Bitcoin fluctuates by just 5%, their accounts are wiped out.

美联储主席鲍威尔的任期还剩最后五个月，这场牵动全球市场神经的“继任者之战”却在圣诞节前突然转向,原本稳坐钓鱼台的白宫经济顾问哈塞特支持率重新飙升，而此前猛追的前美联储理事沃什意外退热。

最新预测市场数据显示，哈塞特获提名概率已达52%，沃什则降至25%，美联储理事沃勒维持在13%。特朗普已在12月17日紧急面试沃勒，但核心圈层仍将“两位凯文”视为最优选择。
一、人事博弈：哈塞特为何重新领跑？
这场逆转背后，是特朗普核心圈层的战略调整。此前哈塞特因“与总统关系过近”引发独立性担忧，支持率一度暴跌。但最近华尔街传出关键信号：若沃什上台，可能优先推动资产负债表改革而非快速降息，这触碰了特朗普的“低利率底线”。
哈塞特迅速展开形象修复，公开强调“总统的意见没有任何权重，美联储决策只基于数据”。这种表态反而让市场意识到,他比沃什更懂得在政治忠诚与政策独立之间找平衡。
更关键的是，特朗普需要的是一个既能推动降息，又不会引发债券市场恐慌的候选人。哈塞特作为白宫内部人士，对特朗普政策路线的理解远超沃什，能更精准地把握降息节奏。
二、三位候选人的“加密立场”画像

哈塞特（概率52%）：宽松加速器​
若他上任，可能更快启动“财政化货币”实验,将利率快速降至特朗普期望的1%甚至更低。短期利好风险资产，但长期可能因通胀反弹引发政策急转弯。
沃什（概率25%）：平衡派​
作为前美联储理事，他主张降息需与资产负债表改革同步推进。政策可预测性强，但可能错失刺激经济的最佳窗口，对加密市场影响偏中性。
沃勒（概率13%）：黑马角色​
虽是特朗普一手提拔的美联储理事，但9月投票支持“鹰派降息”展现独立性。若意外上位，市场将解读为美联储独立性获胜，短期利好美元，压制加密资产。

三、对加密市场的连锁反应

美联储主席人选通过三个渠道影响加密市场：

流动性预期​
哈塞特领先意味着2026年可能降息75-100个基点，直接提升市场风险偏好。历史数据显示，降息周期中比特币等加密资产表现显著优于传统资产。
美元汇率传导​
沃什若上台，其稳健风格可能推动美元反弹，对以美元计价的加密资产形成压力。需警惕重演11月比特币失守9万美元的流动性冲击。
政策不确定性溢价​
特朗普明确要求“主席应就利率决策征询总统意见”，若哈塞特被迫屈从政治压力，可能引发市场对政策可信度的质疑，放大加密市场波动率。

四、加密投资者的应对策略

短期（1-3个月）：紧盯利率信号​

12月FOMC会议后，市场对2026年降息预期已调整至2-3次。若哈塞特提名确认，可适度增加比特币配置权重，目标位看至10-12万美元区间。
中期（3-6个月）：防范流动性反复​
2026年最大风险是“降息暂停+政府停摆”双重冲击。建议将仓位分为三部分：5成主流币（BTC/ETH）、3成现金（USDT/USDC）、2成低估值山寨币，保留机动资金。
长期（1年以上）：聚焦实用价值资产​
无论谁执掌美联储，数字资产向实用价值转型的趋势不变。重点布局RWA（真实资产代币化）、链上国债等产生现金流的协议，这类资产能在流动性紧缩时展现抗跌性。

结语：人事博弈下的加密市场新逻辑

美联储主席之争的本质，是货币政策主导权的争夺。对加密市场而言，哈塞特领先意味着更宽松的流动性环境，但也埋下通胀反弹的隐患。

聪明的投资者不会押注单一结果，而是做好预案：若哈塞特上台，抓住降息初期的风险资产狂欢；若沃什逆袭，耐心等待市场错杀带来的抄底机会。
在这个不确定性成为新常态的时代，活下来比赚快钱重要得多。

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一、恐慌指数已经说明一切

加密恐惧与贪婪指数再次跌破20，进入极度恐惧区间。这意味着什么？历史上，当这个指标低于20时，往往对应阶段性底部。

回顾过去七年的数据，市场共经历了239次指数低于20的“极度恐慌”时刻。而这些时刻，大多数都成为了短期的阶段性底部。
特别是当恐慌集中在一段时间内持续时（比如2020年3-4月持续43天低于20，2022年5-7月持续65天低于20），往往都是市场接近底部的特征。这就是“物极必反”的市场哲理。

二、真正的底部信号在哪里？

很多人问我如何判断市场底部，我总结三个关键信号：

链上数据从不撒谎。当比特币的MVRV比率（市值与已实现价值比）低于1.0时，说明币价已低于平均持币成本，这是深度低估区域。此时长期持有者持仓比例通常在创新高，表明市场正从投机转向储备。
杠杆清算接近尾声。当暴跌后出现大规模杠杆头寸被清除，特别是单日清算量超过10亿美元后，市场杠杆率会明显下降。这意味着泡沫被挤出，为新一轮健康上涨奠定基础。
资金悄然布局。聪明钱总是在市场恐慌时默默积累筹码。当散户恐慌抛售时，巨鲸地址却在持续买入。近期数据显示，即使市场情绪悲观，机构资金仍在通过ETF等渠道持续流入。

三、我的个人操作策略

我从不追求买在最低点，那需要运气。我追求的是“高性价比区域”，即风险收益比显著有利的区间。

目前市场环境下，我采取分批建仓策略：将资金分为3-5份，在关键支撑位分批买入。单次抄底资金不超过总资产的30%，永远保留一定现金应对黑天鹅事件。
我特别关注那些在熊市中依然保持强劲基本面的项目。真正的优质资产在牛市结束时往往率先下跌，但在熊市中会展现出更强韧性。
设定明确的止损位。抄底不是盲目接飞刀，我给自己设定严格的止损纪律，通常为买入价下跌15%自动平仓。这保证即使判断错误，也不会伤及本金。

四、未来属于理性者

市场周期永恒不变，熊牛交替如同昼夜更迭。每次熊市都会让人觉得“这次不一样”，但历史反复证明，没有永远的熊市，只有暂时的情绪失控。

当社交媒体被悲观情绪淹没，当所有利空消息被无限放大，你需要做的不是跟随恐慌，而是冷静问自己：这个资产的基本面是否发生根本性改变？如果不是，那么恐慌带来的往往是机会而非风险。
真正的投资高手不是永远正确，而是在关键时刻敢于与大众逆向而行。当大多数人被情绪驱动时，他们始终坚持自己的判断框架和交易纪律。
在这个市场里，最昂贵的教训就是：每一次集体性恐慌过后，总会迎来报复性反弹，但大多数人在黎明前夜选择了放弃。
当大多数人都在恐慌割肉时，我选择贪婪；当市场一片萧条时，我看到的却是未来收获的种子。周期永远在，人性永远在，这就是市场最大的确定性。

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市场在恐惧中贪婪，在贪婪中恐惧。当前的加密市场，正是这句话最真实的写照。
12月的加密货币市场就像一场惊心动魄的过山车。比特币在12月1日闪崩跌破8.7万美元，短短几小时后却又强势反弹至9.2万美元上方。

一跌一涨之间，近30万人爆仓，爆仓金额逼近10亿美元。这种极端行情下，无数投资者在问：市场触底了吗？现在是该抄底还是继续等待？
作为一名历经多次牛熊的分析师，我要告诉你：底部区域正在形成，但盲目抄底等于自杀。

01 三大信号揭示市场真相

杠杆清算接近尾声。期货市场的未平仓合约量已回落至四月低点，表明疯狂的杠杆头寸大多已被出清。每次市场触底前，都会有高杠杆被清洗的过程，现在这一过程已接近完成。

关键指标显示，比特币的MVRV（市值与已实现价值的比率）接近1.10，历史上该点位长期投资未来一年平均收益达40%。
资金悄然布局。12月3日早间，1800枚比特币（约8210万美元）从富达托管地址转入匿名钱包，这通常是机构进行仓位调整的信号。
同时，贝莱德IBIT ETF半小时交易量突破10亿美元，Vanguard解除比特币ETF投资禁令后首日即引发资金涌入。
技术面与情绪面出现背离。尽管价格仍在低位震荡，但以太坊Fusaka升级已成功激活，将Layer2交易费用降低30%-50%。
更关键的是，恐惧贪婪指数已降至20的极度恐惧区间，历史表明，这正是聪明资金悄然布局的良机。

02 8.4万美元：比特币的生死线

链上数据清晰指出，8.4万美元是当前比特币的生死线。这一位置是近期大量买入群体的成本区间，一旦失守，可能引发短期持有者的恐慌性抛售。

12月1日当价格触及8.3万美元时，市场恐慌情绪急剧升温，但随后快速反弹。这说明有大量买盘在该支撑位附近等待入场。
我的观点很明确：只要比特币守在8.4万美元以上，市场结构就保持完整。一旦放量跌破，就必须重新评估整个市场前景。

03 未来30天，紧盯这三件大事

12月10日的美联储议息会议。目前市场对降息25个基点的预期概率已飙升至85%以上。如果降息落地，将直接推动美元走弱，为比特币等风险资产提供流动性支撑。

美联储主席人选公布。特朗普可能在圣诞节前宣布提名，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特目前领跑。他不仅是降息派，还是比特币的坚定支持者，曾公开主张将比特币纳入国家战略储备资产。
11月非农数据。将于12月16日发布。如果数据疲软，可能进一步强化2026年初的降息预期，为加密市场提供额外支撑。
未来的路已经清晰：12月10日美联储会议将是第一个重要转折点。如果降息落地，比特币很可能快速测试10万美元阻力位；即使推迟降息，市场也已部分定价，下行空间有限。
真正的专业投资者不是在市场明朗时跟风，而是在迷雾中识别真相。我已在8.4万美元上方分批布局，止损设定在8.7万美元。
市场总会奖励那些有独立判断力的投资者。
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1. Short-term bearish: The three major pits are swallowing retail investors

Long-term holders are collectively cashing out, and the selling pressure is far from over
On-chain data shows that in the past two months, at least 1.6 million Bitcoins that had been dormant for two years have been activated for sale, worth about $140 billion. What does the retreat of these 'diamond hands' mean?
Early whales are cashing out at high levels using the liquidity from ETFs
What’s even scarier is that the selling scale in the past 30 days has reached a five-year high. Do you think it has hit the bottom? It might just be halfway down!
The macro knife hangs over the head, and liquidity continues to dry up
The Federal Reserve's 'hawkish rate cut' caught the market off guard, and tonight's US CPI data is a key variable. If inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed may tighten further, putting risk assets in the line of fire. At the same time, potential tightening by the Bank of Japan could trigger a return of carry trade funds, historically leading to an average drop of 20% in Bitcoin—this market simply cannot withstand such turmoil!

1. The funding rate is no longer 'balanced'; it is the market maker's ATM!

The funding rate was originally the 'stabilizing force' for perpetual contracts, designed to keep the contract price closely aligned with the spot price. In simple terms, when the contract price is higher than the spot price, the longs have to 'pay rent' to the shorts (positive rate); conversely, the shorts have to subsidize the longs (negative rate). This mechanism is relatively mild for mainstream coins like Bitcoin, usually settling every 8 hours with rates mostly below 0.01%.

But once it comes to the altcoin market, the rules change completely! The market makers use high control and high-frequency settlements to turn the fee rates into a 'sucking tool'. For example, for certain altcoins, the market makers compress the settlement cycle to 1 hour, with rates soaring to 2% at a time. Let's do the math: If 2% is deducted every hour, that's 48% in a day. Even if the price doesn't move, the long position's margin can be drained. Is this really a 'balancing fee'? It's clearly a 'toll fee' collecting money for the passage!

Today I want to talk to you not about some 'foolproof but 100% profitable' secret (to be honest, there is no such thing as a 100% profitable strategy in this market), but about thoughts on how to survive rationally in a frenzy.
💡 Understanding the market: High returns inevitably come with high risks.
The idea you mentioned is centered around contract trading and chasing hot coins. This is indeed a common approach in the market, but we must be clear about its nature: it exploits high leverage to fight against short-term price fluctuations, which carries extremely high risks.
It is repeatedly emphasized in the search materials that for beginners, contract trading is extremely dangerous. The price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are severe, with 20% increases or decreases in a single day being very common. The 'steady strategy to gradually accumulate capital' you envision may be very fragile in the face of unexpected market 'waterfalls' or 'spikes'. Many experienced traders have been defeated in the contract market.

Use the simplest methods to earn the most reliable profits
Brothers, I just finished my coffee and glanced at the market, and I couldn't help but think of the bits and pieces from these years in the crypto world. I can't be considered a big shot, just someone who has stumbled through a few more pitfalls than a newbie. Today, I won't talk about complicated technical indicators; let's chat about how to hold on and earn steadily in a bull market.
My view is very clear: in a bull market, most people's operations yield negative returns. The smarter you think you are, the easier it is to miss out. On the contrary, those investors who 'hold on for dear life' after finding the trend end up making a fortune.

I have been playing in Lijiang and Dali, not buying houses or cars. Monthly expenses are 3,500.
How I make money:
1. With a principal of 50,000, I did projects in college, affiliate marketing, taking orders, deliveries, and various small tasks, and saved 50,000 yuan.
2. Entering the cryptocurrency market, I think BTC is too expensive, so I kept playing with ETH. ETH has leverage, and then there are altcoins and spot trading. Choose coins and manage positions well. Just stick to this simple approach. When the market is bad, I take small losses; when the market comes, I make good profits.
Why enter the circle?
If you want to change your fate, you must try the cryptocurrency circle. If you can't make money in this circle, ordinary people will have no chance in their lifetime.

To all the old friends and new sprouts in the cryptocurrency circle, I am the 'old grilled sprout' who went from liquidation to recovery. After 3600 days, ten years of hard work, two houses, and an eight-figure fortune, I didn't rely on insider information, nor did I gamble on myths of hundredfold returns; I relied solely on a method that many people dismiss as 'too stupid'. Today, I’m sharing some valuable insights from the heart, suitable for ordinary people who don’t want to be liquidated and seek stable profits.
1. In a bull market, don't be a 'gambling god', be a 'sharpshooter'​
When the market is hot, opportunities are everywhere, but more people lose due to 'greed'. My principle is: focus on the main trend and hold onto the major upward wave.

Buying at the bottom while halfway up the hill is not as good as quietly observing the changes. The most profitable periods in the crypto space are often the shortest and most intense. As a veteran of the crypto market with nearly ten years of experience, I have witnessed three transitions between bull and bear markets. Each market cycle is like an expensive economics class, with a hefty tuition fee, but it has gradually helped me discern the true rhythm of the market. The current wave that started in October 2023 is in a typical halftime phase. Bitcoin is fluctuating in the 110000-120000 dollar range, while Ethereum has strongly broken through its previous high, which is a classic sign of the mid-stage of a bull market as funds begin to rotate from Bitcoin to high-quality assets.

Having mixed in the cryptocurrency circle for a full decade, counting this wave, it’s already the fourth time accompanying the market through bull and bear phases. To be honest, the biological clock of this circle is too accurate; it’s a four-year cycle, with three years of grinding at the bottom, and only one year can you truly feast.
Moreover, this year's bull market particularly emphasizes 'rhythm'. The first eight months were basically all 'fakes', rising for two days and falling for three, cleansing those who lacked patience. Many people, after enduring until now, left cursing, feeling that 'this is not a bull market, it’s even more tormenting than a bear market'. But if you truly hold on, you will understand what 'pulling onions from dry ground' means in the last two months, where the final two months are about slowly building a top, giving you the final signal to get on or off the bus.

Talk honestly with everyone, I've been in the crypto space for almost eight years, and I've seen too many young people with three to five thousand in principal wanting to get rich quickly. They either buy high and get trapped or face liquidation on contracts. Today, I'm sharing my practical plan, which has no fancy tricks, but I know people who have really turned ten thousand into a million with this; the core is just two words: execution.
1. Don't think about buying coins yet, solidify your first bucket of gold.
Don't come in thinking about 'borrowing a chicken to lay an egg'. The most taboo thing with small funds is inflated principal. Listen to me, first calm down and work steadily for two months, whether it's running deliveries on weekends, driving at night, or taking some online part-time jobs, the goal is simple: save up ten thousand in principal.

When people around me collapsed due to altcoins going to zero, I survived by relying on five 'counter-intuitive' strategies, and even doubled my assets during the bear market.
During the crash of LUNA in 2022, the FTX collapse in 2023, and the plunge of altcoins in 2024... In these crises, I not only preserved my principal but also achieved counter-trend growth. The secret is not profound theory, but five seemingly simple yet extremely effective 'dumb methods'.
1. Cutting losses ingrained in DNA: 3% iron rule and 'crocodile tail cutting'
In the early days, I always fantasized about 'holding onto a position to break even', but small losses turned into huge losses. Later, I established a strict rule that no single loss should exceed 3% of the principal, and I would cut my losses immediately if the direction was wrong. For example, before the crash of LUNA in 2023, I discovered through on-chain data that whale addresses were continuously selling, so I cut my losses early and avoided a disaster, while my friends who held onto their positions have not yet recovered.

When friends around me collapse one by one due to altcoins going to zero, I survived with five "counterintuitive" strategies, quietly positioning myself during the bear market, and ultimately doubled my assets.
The LUNA crash in 2022, the FTX explosion in 2023, and the collective plunge of altcoins in 2024... During these crises, I not only preserved my principal but also achieved counter-trend growth. What I'm sharing today is not some profound theory, but five seemingly simple yet extremely effective "foolish methods".
Method 1: The "Three No Principles" for project selection​
I set strict rules for myself: I don't invest in coins with anonymous teams, I don't touch coins with no code updates, and I don't look at coins with infinite issuance economic models. This set of standards helped me avoid 90% of the coins going to zero.

There are always people saying the cryptocurrency world is a casino, but with ten years of blood and tears experience, I can confirm: this is actually a 'cognitive battleground' that specializes in treating all forms of disbelief.
In 2015, when I first entered the cryptocurrency world, like most inexperienced investors, I experienced the darkest moments of chasing highs and selling lows, leveraged liquidation, and the zeroing out of altcoins. The worst time was when my account shrank by 70%, and I spent late nights smoking while staring at the candlestick charts. But what truly helped me turn around was not mystical indicators, but rather 'anti-human' actions taken after three painful reflections.
Key to the comeback: engrave 'stop-loss' into your DNA.
In the early days, I often fantasized about 'holding on to recover losses,' but what started as small losses turned into huge ones. Later, I established a strict rule that no single loss should exceed 2% of the principal, and I would cut my losses immediately if the direction was wrong. The most impressive moment was during the LUNA crash in 2023, where I managed to stop-loss in advance and avoided a disaster, while my friends who held on are still trapped.

​When the waterfall-like crash came, I survived by relying on five "anti-instinct" actions, and my assets multiplied fivefold during the subsequent rebound.
The crash in July 2025 is still fresh in many people's memories: Bitcoin dropped over 40% in a single week, Ethereum fell below key support levels, and the entire market was in despair. Not only did I manage to preserve most of my profits, but I also boldly bought at the bottom, ultimately doubling my assets. Today, what I want to share isn't some profound theory, but five seemingly simple yet extremely effective "dumb habits."
Habit 1: The "Three-Three System" of layered positions​

Last week, when Xiao Li sent the position screenshot, I almost thought he had sent it by mistake. This is the same young man who cried six months ago about being cheated out of 200,000 by an AI stock trading robot. Now, the total value of his FET and AGIX has quadrupled, and he has even paid off half of his mortgage early. His comeback wasn't based on luck; it was all about stepping through the pitfalls of AI and cryptocurrency to seize the tail of 'real technology.'
In the cryptocurrency world of 2025, 'AI' has become the hottest traffic password: social media is filled with 'AI quantitative passive income' and 'AI coin selection tools.' New coins can surge 50% just by having an 'AI' label at launch. But the truth is that 90% of 'AI + cryptocurrency' is just a guise for scams. Either they are fake robots like the one Xiao Li encountered, charging an annual fee of 2888 yuan while miscalculating basic K-lines, or they are air coins filled with AI terminology in the white paper but haven't updated their actual code in three months.

The development of the cryptocurrency space has long surpassed the realm of digital currency. While the soaring value of Bitcoin continues to make headlines, a potentially more significant development is emerging: AI cryptocurrency.
For enterprises, the integration of AI and blockchain technology presents unique opportunities. These new AI tokens are not just for trading; they are designed to power the next generation of AI infrastructure, from distributed computing networks to secure data markets. As global organizations heavily invest in AI capabilities, understanding these blockchain-based systems becomes increasingly important for technology leaders looking to build more efficient, secure, and scalable AI operations.