币圈罗盘
✅博主公众号：币圈罗盘｜交易即反人性博弈 ，擅长运用各种交易指标拿下过结果的人，顺势而为和风险控制，用自己的经历分享实战经验！
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Ethereum's '3K Defense Battle': A Dual Game of Liquidation and Confidence
Recently, the price of Ethereum has been repeatedly rubbing against the psychological barrier of $3000. Above, $3350 is stacked with a massive amount of short positions waiting to explode; below, $3030 is piled up with a huge volume of long positions waiting to be cut. The market is like tug-of-war, competing within this space of over two hundred dollars.
Many people ask me, 'Old Luo, can ETH hold $3000? Is it going to crash?'
Today we won't guess the direction; instead, we will analyze the mechanical structure behind the '3K Defense Battle'. This is not only a contest between long and short funds but also a pressure test for Ethereum's 'value narrative'.
Many people ask me, 'Old Luo, can ETH hold $3000? Is it going to crash?'
Today we won't guess the direction; instead, we will analyze the mechanical structure behind the '3K Defense Battle'. This is not only a contest between long and short funds but also a pressure test for Ethereum's 'value narrative'.
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The End of the Layer2 Battle: Why Do I Say 'Application Chains' Are the Next Peak?
Recently, the battlefield of Layer2 seems to have calmed down. The landscape of giants like Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync has been established, with some launching tokens and others building ecosystems. Many people feel that the story of Layer2 has come to an end, and it's time to look for new hotspots.
But today, I want to present a viewpoint that might make you frown: the war of Layer2 has never ended; it has merely evolved from the 'bottom layer protocol war' to the 'upper layer application war.' And the real crown does not belong to any generic L2 but to the 'super application chains' that emerge from them.
Don't understand? To put it simply: the competition between Android and iOS systems is about the same, but the competition for 'national applications' like WeChat, Douyin, and Genshin Impact within their respective systems is the key to where we spend our time each day.
But today, I want to present a viewpoint that might make you frown: the war of Layer2 has never ended; it has merely evolved from the 'bottom layer protocol war' to the 'upper layer application war.' And the real crown does not belong to any generic L2 but to the 'super application chains' that emerge from them.
Don't understand? To put it simply: the competition between Android and iOS systems is about the same, but the competition for 'national applications' like WeChat, Douyin, and Genshin Impact within their respective systems is the key to where we spend our time each day.
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When the 'Panic Index' Becomes a Contrarian Indicator: When Others Are Fearful, Should I Be Greedy?
Today, the famous 'Fear and Greed Index' has once again fallen into the 'panic' zone. The community is wailing, as if it were the end of the world. But as I stare at this number, I am reminded of Buffett's overused old saying: 'When others are fearful, I am greedy.'
But today, I want to tell you a harsher truth: in the cryptocurrency world, simply following 'when others are fearful, I am greedy' may lead to a tragic end for you. Because the market will use 'persistent panic' and 'endless downturns' to grind away all your greed and principal.
1. Understand the quality of 'panic': there is real gold, and there is gold-plated.
But today, I want to tell you a harsher truth: in the cryptocurrency world, simply following 'when others are fearful, I am greedy' may lead to a tragic end for you. Because the market will use 'persistent panic' and 'endless downturns' to grind away all your greed and principal.
1. Understand the quality of 'panic': there is real gold, and there is gold-plated.
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The UK is issuing a "digital pound": The "compliance encirclement" of the traditional empire has begun
Today, when I saw the ambitious letter from the UK's FCA (Financial Conduct Authority), my first reaction was not excitement, but a chill down my spine. They plan to launch an officially endorsed "digital pound stablecoin" in 2026 and establish a complete regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
Many people say: "This is good news! It's compliant now, and big funds are coming!" But I want you to calm down for three seconds and listen to my analogy: This is like a regular army watching your guerrilla fighters having a great time in the mountains, suddenly announcing: "Alright, this area is designated as a special economic zone, I will set the rules, issue licenses, and collect taxes, you all come over to register."
Many people say: "This is good news! It's compliant now, and big funds are coming!" But I want you to calm down for three seconds and listen to my analogy: This is like a regular army watching your guerrilla fighters having a great time in the mountains, suddenly announcing: "Alright, this area is designated as a special economic zone, I will set the rules, issue licenses, and collect taxes, you all come over to register."
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BTC market share surpasses 60%: Is it 'bloodsucking' or 'blood supply'?
Today, a number made me put down the melon in my hand; Bitcoin's market share has surpassed 60%. This means that for every 10 dollars in the entire crypto market, more than 6 dollars are bet on Bitcoin. Many people are exclaiming: 'The bloodsucking market has come! The altcoin season is over!'
But today, I want to ask you to look at this issue from a different angle. Is it really just simple 'bloodsucking'? Or is it a delayed, necessary 'rite of passage' for the market?
1. This is not 'bloodsucking', it is 'centralized blood supply'
Let's first understand a metaphor: If we view the entire crypto market as a human body, what is Bitcoin? It is the heart and aorta. What are altcoins? They are the limbs and capillaries.
But today, I want to ask you to look at this issue from a different angle. Is it really just simple 'bloodsucking'? Or is it a delayed, necessary 'rite of passage' for the market?
1. This is not 'bloodsucking', it is 'centralized blood supply'
Let's first understand a metaphor: If we view the entire crypto market as a human body, what is Bitcoin? It is the heart and aorta. What are altcoins? They are the limbs and capillaries.
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When the interest rate cut becomes 'the wolf is coming': why is the market desensitized to positive news?
Early this morning, when the Federal Reserve Chairman uttered the term that the market had been waiting for half a year, 'interest rate cut', I was sitting in front of my computer with a quick-acting heart-saving pill (just joking, it's coffee) at hand. But when I saw the market trends, I almost spilled that cup of coffee on the screen. Imagine, the feast you've been eagerly anticipating finally begins, only for the waiter to serve you a plate of 'reheated leftovers'. Bitcoin and Ethereum remained motionless, and some altcoins even slipped a few steps down.
This is the magical reality of today's market. While everyone is looking forward to a carnival, the market is as calm as a top student solving a math problem. Behind this, who is really 'acting', and who is just watching? Today, Old Li will break down this advanced game of 'expectation management' for you.
This is the magical reality of today's market. While everyone is looking forward to a carnival, the market is as calm as a top student solving a math problem. Behind this, who is really 'acting', and who is just watching? Today, Old Li will break down this advanced game of 'expectation management' for you.
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How I Achieved Financial Freedom with 'Dollar-Cost Averaging'
Today I want to share the simplest but most effective investment method: dollar-cost averaging. I used this method, going from a monthly salary of 5000 as a working person to now having a passive income of over 50000 per month. I'm not bragging; I'm telling you: ordinary people can rise, and it's not about myths of sudden wealth, but about the right method and enough patience.
Dollar-cost averaging is such a method: clumsy, but effective; slow, but stable; simple, but can change destiny.
Chapter 1: Why Dollar-Cost Averaging is Effective?
Effectiveness 1: Avoiding Human Weaknesses
We are always greedy at high points and fearful at low points. Dollar-cost averaging uses discipline to avoid human nature, buying regularly at different prices.
Dollar-cost averaging is such a method: clumsy, but effective; slow, but stable; simple, but can change destiny.
Chapter 1: Why Dollar-Cost Averaging is Effective?
Effectiveness 1: Avoiding Human Weaknesses
We are always greedy at high points and fearful at low points. Dollar-cost averaging uses discipline to avoid human nature, buying regularly at different prices.
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Why is 'selling' 100 times harder than 'buying'?
In the cryptocurrency circle, we spend 99% of our time researching 'what to buy' and 'when to buy.' But what really determines profit is often 'whether to sell' and 'when to sell.' I have seen too many people buy accurately but give back profits or even incur losses when exiting.
Until I discovered that in investing, buying only requires knowledge, while selling requires wisdom. Buying is a skill, selling is an art.
Chapter 1: Why is selling so difficult?
Challenge 1: The temptation of profits running away
When it rises, we want it to rise more; this is human nature. When my Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $30,000, I thought it could reach $50,000. When it reached $50,000, I thought it could reach $100,000. As a result, I didn't sell at $60,000 and it dropped back to $30,000.
Until I discovered that in investing, buying only requires knowledge, while selling requires wisdom. Buying is a skill, selling is an art.
Chapter 1: Why is selling so difficult?
Challenge 1: The temptation of profits running away
When it rises, we want it to rise more; this is human nature. When my Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $30,000, I thought it could reach $50,000. When it reached $50,000, I thought it could reach $100,000. As a result, I didn't sell at $60,000 and it dropped back to $30,000.
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Small Capital, Big Miracles
Today I want to share a story that might reignite your hope: in the cryptocurrency circle, small capital is not a disadvantage, but an advantage. I started with 50,000 yuan and multiplied it by 100 times in five years. I am not a rich second generation, I don't have insider information, and I don't do technical analysis. What I can do, you can too.
But I want to pour a bucket of cold water first: the core of doubling small capital is not to 'take a gamble,' but to 'survive.' Most people fail because they think about 'quick doubling.'
Chapter One: The Three Major Advantages of Small Capital
Advantage 1: Flexibility
Large capital is difficult to build positions, difficult to exit, and difficult to turn around. Small capital can come and go like the wind; it can be fully invested in one second and completely liquid in the next. This is the biggest advantage.
But I want to pour a bucket of cold water first: the core of doubling small capital is not to 'take a gamble,' but to 'survive.' Most people fail because they think about 'quick doubling.'
Chapter One: The Three Major Advantages of Small Capital
Advantage 1: Flexibility
Large capital is difficult to build positions, difficult to exit, and difficult to turn around. Small capital can come and go like the wind; it can be fully invested in one second and completely liquid in the next. This is the biggest advantage.
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Why 'Bear Markets' Are Your Best Friend
Today I want to tell you an counterintuitive truth: in the crypto world, I love bear markets the most, just like I love my wallet. Bull markets are for spending money, bear markets are for picking up money. But most people get it wrong; they buy crazily in bull markets and are afraid to buy in bear markets.
The most profitable chips I bought were all during bear markets. At the end of 2018, March 2020, the end of 2022... every time the market is filled with dead bodies, the community is silent, and analysts change careers, that’s when I push my shopping cart into the market.
Until I understood: in the crypto world, bear markets are not a punishment, but a reward. It is not the end, but the beginning.
The most profitable chips I bought were all during bear markets. At the end of 2018, March 2020, the end of 2022... every time the market is filled with dead bodies, the community is silent, and analysts change careers, that’s when I push my shopping cart into the market.
Until I understood: in the crypto world, bear markets are not a punishment, but a reward. It is not the end, but the beginning.
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How I Made 5 Million by 'Doing Nothing'
Today I want to share a truth that goes against instinct: in the crypto world, waiting is not passive; it is the strongest form of proactivity. Patience is not a virtue; it is the most ruthless weapon.
My five most profitable trades had an average holding period of 2.1 years. Meanwhile, my twenty most unprofitable trades had an average holding period of 13 days. Until I understood: in the crypto world, time is not an enemy; it is a friend. The more patience you give to time, the more profit time gives back to you.
Chapter One: Why Wait?
Reason one: Good things take time to grow
When you plant an apple tree, you don't expect it to bear fruit next month. But many people buy a coin and expect it to double in value next week. This is unreasonable.
My five most profitable trades had an average holding period of 2.1 years. Meanwhile, my twenty most unprofitable trades had an average holding period of 13 days. Until I understood: in the crypto world, time is not an enemy; it is a friend. The more patience you give to time, the more profit time gives back to you.
Chapter One: Why Wait?
Reason one: Good things take time to grow
When you plant an apple tree, you don't expect it to bear fruit next month. But many people buy a coin and expect it to double in value next week. This is unreasonable.
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为什么“享受过程”比“追求结果”更幸福
第一章：投资是修行
修行的三重境界：
修技：学习知识，掌握技能修心：控制情绪，修炼心态修性：认识自己，完善人格
我的修行之路：
第一年：学技术，亏钱，痛苦第三年：练心态，少亏，平静第五年：悟人性，小赚，快乐第八年：做自己，稳赚，幸福
投资到最后，不是和市场的较量，是和自己的和解。
第二章：享受当下
享受的三个维度：
享受学习：不是为了赚钱而学，是为了求知而学享受思考：不是为了判断而思，是为了理解而思享受等待：不是为了盈利而等，是为了过程而等
我的当下生活：
早上：运动，阅读，不想投资上午：工作，创造，不想行情下午：学习，思考，不盯盘晚上：家庭，兴趣，不聊币
投资是生活的一部分，不是生活的全部。
第三章：过程即奖赏
奖赏的三重收获：
金钱：自然结果，不是追求目标成长：认知提升，人格完善自由：时间自由，心灵自由
我的奖赏：
金钱：足够生活，不够奢华成长：读书百本，认知升级自由：时间自主，心灵自在
够了，很幸福了。
在币圈，追求结果的人，往往错过过程。享受过程的人，往往得到结果。过程是现在的幸福，结果是未来的回忆。 投资八年，我最大的收获不是金钱，是成长。不是自由，是幸福。
我现在的生活很普通。普通的工作，普通的家庭，普通的爱好。但我的内心很丰富，很平静，很幸福。投资给了我物质基础，但幸福来自生活本身。
关注我@币圈罗盘 ！带你精准预判每一波行情，别再错过任何赚钱的机会！
#加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH
修行的三重境界：
修技：学习知识，掌握技能修心：控制情绪，修炼心态修性：认识自己，完善人格
我的修行之路：
第一年：学技术，亏钱，痛苦第三年：练心态，少亏，平静第五年：悟人性，小赚，快乐第八年：做自己，稳赚，幸福
投资到最后，不是和市场的较量，是和自己的和解。
第二章：享受当下
享受的三个维度：
享受学习：不是为了赚钱而学，是为了求知而学享受思考：不是为了判断而思，是为了理解而思享受等待：不是为了盈利而等，是为了过程而等
我的当下生活：
早上：运动，阅读，不想投资上午：工作，创造，不想行情下午：学习，思考，不盯盘晚上：家庭，兴趣，不聊币
投资是生活的一部分，不是生活的全部。
第三章：过程即奖赏
奖赏的三重收获：
金钱：自然结果，不是追求目标成长：认知提升，人格完善自由：时间自由，心灵自由
我的奖赏：
金钱：足够生活，不够奢华成长：读书百本，认知升级自由：时间自主，心灵自在
够了，很幸福了。
在币圈，追求结果的人，往往错过过程。享受过程的人，往往得到结果。过程是现在的幸福，结果是未来的回忆。 投资八年，我最大的收获不是金钱，是成长。不是自由，是幸福。
我现在的生活很普通。普通的工作，普通的家庭，普通的爱好。但我的内心很丰富，很平静，很幸福。投资给了我物质基础，但幸福来自生活本身。
关注我@币圈罗盘 ！带你精准预判每一波行情，别再错过任何赚钱的机会！
#加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH
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Why 'Accepting Losses' is the Prerequisite for Profit
In the cryptocurrency world, what do we fear the most? Losses. We learn techniques, research news, and monitor the market, all for one goal: to avoid losses. Strangely, those who fear losses the most often end up losing more. The more one tries to avoid losses, the more likely they are to incur losses.
I used to be a severe case of 'loss aversion'. Every time I incurred a loss, I couldn't sleep, repeatedly reviewing my trades and blaming myself. I pursued a 100% win rate, but my win rate declined, and my losses grew larger.
Until I understood: in investing, losses are not mistakes, they are costs. Accepting losses is key to avoiding significant losses. Not fearing losses allows you to hold onto profits.
I used to be a severe case of 'loss aversion'. Every time I incurred a loss, I couldn't sleep, repeatedly reviewing my trades and blaming myself. I pursued a 100% win rate, but my win rate declined, and my losses grew larger.
Until I understood: in investing, losses are not mistakes, they are costs. Accepting losses is key to avoiding significant losses. Not fearing losses allows you to hold onto profits.
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Why 'Less is More' is a Truth in the Cryptocurrency World
In the cryptocurrency world, we always want more. More information, more opportunities, more operations, more profits. We believe that more is good, more equals profit. When I first started, I also pursued more. I held 20 cryptocurrencies at the same time, operated 10 times a day, followed 50 analysts, and joined 30 communities. I felt like a general, commanding thousands of troops.
At the end of the year, when I did the math, I discovered the harsh truth: most of my profits came from just 2 cryptocurrencies. Most of my operations were ineffective. Most of the information I followed was junk.
That day I had an epiphany: in the cryptocurrency world, less is more. Fewer holdings, fewer operations, fewer focuses often bring more profits.
At the end of the year, when I did the math, I discovered the harsh truth: most of my profits came from just 2 cryptocurrencies. Most of my operations were ineffective. Most of the information I followed was junk.
That day I had an epiphany: in the cryptocurrency world, less is more. Fewer holdings, fewer operations, fewer focuses often bring more profits.
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Why 'Acknowledging Ignorance' is the Beginning of Making Money
In the crypto world, I have seen too many 'experts', they seem to understand everything, can predict anything, and have answers for everything. Strangely, these 'experts' often don't make money, and even lose a lot. The few people I know who are the most profitable all have one thing in common: they often say 'I don't know'.
I used to be one of the 'experts' as well. I thought I was smart, learned quickly, understood technology, and could analyze. When others asked me about the market, I could talk for three hours. What was the result? My account balance was hitting me in the face.
Until I started saying three things:
I don't understand this
I used to be one of the 'experts' as well. I thought I was smart, learned quickly, understood technology, and could analyze. When others asked me about the market, I could talk for three hours. What was the result? My account balance was hitting me in the face.
Until I started saying three things:
I don't understand this
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Why 'Rest' is the Best Investment Strategy
In the crypto space, I learned the most valuable lesson, not in books, not in courses, but during a forced break. In May 2021, I was hospitalized for a week due to a severe cold. During that week, I couldn't check the market, couldn't make trades, and couldn't follow any news. I could only lie down and stare at the ceiling.
After being discharged, I opened my account and was stunned: during the week I "disappeared," my returns increased by 15%. In the month before that, I was trading every day, monitoring the market, yet my returns only grew by 5%.
At that moment, I understood: in the crypto space, sometimes the best action is to take no action. The best strategy is to rest.
After being discharged, I opened my account and was stunned: during the week I "disappeared," my returns increased by 15%. In the month before that, I was trading every day, monitoring the market, yet my returns only grew by 5%.
At that moment, I understood: in the crypto space, sometimes the best action is to take no action. The best strategy is to rest.
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Why 'Focus' Makes More Money Than 'Erudition'
In the cryptocurrency world, I've seen two types of people: one type understands everything, from Bitcoin to the most obscure altcoins, from technical analysis to macroeconomics, from project development to community management; they can talk about it all. The other type knows just a little bit, maybe just Bitcoin, or just Ethereum, and has little understanding of the rest.
Interestingly, the ones who make money are often the second type.
I used to be the first type of person. I felt I had to understand the entire market and seize every opportunity. I studied 20 different tracks, tracked 100 projects, and the information I read daily could fill a book. What was the result? Scattered focus, shallow understanding, and chaotic operations.
Interestingly, the ones who make money are often the second type.
I used to be the first type of person. I felt I had to understand the entire market and seize every opportunity. I studied 20 different tracks, tracked 100 projects, and the information I read daily could fill a book. What was the result? Scattered focus, shallow understanding, and chaotic operations.
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I earned 80% profit by 'waiting'
Today I want to share a truth that goes against human nature: in the crypto world, not acting is more profitable than acting, and waiting takes more courage than taking action. Eight out of my ten most profitable trades were because 'I did nothing at all.' And nine out of my ten biggest losing trades were because 'I just couldn't help myself.'
When I first entered the industry, I felt that I had to be very busy to live up to the identity of an 'investor.' I made trades dozens of times a day, feeling like a general on the battlefield, strategizing. At the end of the year, when I calculated my accounts, I had contributed a five-figure trading fee to the exchange, while my own account was down 30%.
When I first entered the industry, I felt that I had to be very busy to live up to the identity of an 'investor.' I made trades dozens of times a day, feeling like a general on the battlefield, strategizing. At the end of the year, when I calculated my accounts, I had contributed a five-figure trading fee to the exchange, while my own account was down 30%.
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Remember those things that 'cannot be forgotten'
Forgetting is to remember better. I forgot fancy techniques and remembered simple principles.
First note: Remember 'what not to do'
In my investment list, there are now three times more 'prohibited items' than 'action items'.
Prohibition list (partial):
Do not chase heights after a surge
Do not cut losses after a plunge
Do not make decisions late at night
Do not operate when emotionally agitated
Do not borrow money to invest
Do not go all in
Do not believe 'this time is different'
Do not frequently check the account
Do not recommend coins to others
Do not think of yourself as very smart
This list helped me avoid 90% of pitfalls. The remaining 10% is the tuition I must pay.
First note: Remember 'what not to do'
In my investment list, there are now three times more 'prohibited items' than 'action items'.
Prohibition list (partial):
Do not chase heights after a surge
Do not cut losses after a plunge
Do not make decisions late at night
Do not operate when emotionally agitated
Do not borrow money to invest
Do not go all in
Do not believe 'this time is different'
Do not frequently check the account
Do not recommend coins to others
Do not think of yourself as very smart
This list helped me avoid 90% of pitfalls. The remaining 10% is the tuition I must pay.
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The endpoint of the comeback -- becoming a normal person
This is the most important piece, and also my deepest insight.
What is the end point of the crypto comeback? It's not financial freedom, it's not a villa by the sea, but returning to a normal life.
I have seen too many people after their 'comeback':
Mr. A made 30 million, became obsessed with contracts, and lost it all in six months.
Ms. B has over a hundred million in assets, is suspicious and paranoid, with not a single true friend.
Mr. C is financially free, extravagant, and back to square one in three years.
The real comeback is when the crypto world changes your asset scale, but does not change your inner self. You are still you, just a more composed, freer, and calmer version of yourself.
Guide to 'returning to normalcy':
What is the end point of the crypto comeback? It's not financial freedom, it's not a villa by the sea, but returning to a normal life.
I have seen too many people after their 'comeback':
Mr. A made 30 million, became obsessed with contracts, and lost it all in six months.
Ms. B has over a hundred million in assets, is suspicious and paranoid, with not a single true friend.
Mr. C is financially free, extravagant, and back to square one in three years.
The real comeback is when the crypto world changes your asset scale, but does not change your inner self. You are still you, just a more composed, freer, and calmer version of yourself.
Guide to 'returning to normalcy':
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