🚨 OIL IS ABOVE $100—AND THE INFLATION TRADE IS BACK
The biggest market risk today is not coming from stocks.
It is coming from energy.
Brent crude moved back above $100 per barrel, while WTI traded near $92.80
The latest surge followed reports that the US is sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, increasing fears of a wider conflict and possible supply disruption
At the same time, US–Iran negotiations remain stalled.
This matters far beyond the oil market.
Higher oil prices can raise:
Fuel costs
Transportation costs
Food prices
Business expenses
Inflation expectations
And if inflation expectations rise again, the Federal Reserve has less room to ease monetary policy.
That keeps pressure on:
Treasury bonds
Growth stocks
Housing
Small businesses
Consumer spending
Bitcoin and other risk assets
Brent gained around 14% in September, its strongest monthly performance in years
Now the key question is:
Can oil remain above $100—or is this another geopolitical spike?
Watch these markets closely:
Brent crude
WTI crude
Strait of Hormuz headlines
US 10Y Treasury yield
US Dollar
Airlines
Energy stocks
Nasdaq
If oil stays above $100, the market may have to price in stickier inflation and higher interest rates.
Stocks can ignore oil for one session.
The Federal Reserve cannot ignore it forever.
Do not watch the oil price alone
Watch how bonds and inflation expectations react.
— Aasim Majeed AMC
$CL $XAU $BTC #Oil #BrentCrude #Inflation #FederalReserve