$ETH Four days ago, that huge 4-hour bearish candle dropped straight from 2531 to 2430, with volume of 1.78 million contracts. It looked scary.
But what happened next was more interesting.
After the drop, the market did not panic-sell. Between 2440 and 2460, it moved sideways in a tight range for four full days. Daily 4-hour trading volume shrank to 100,000 to 200,000 contracts. All the weak hands were washed out.
Then last night, volume came back. A 4-hour bullish candle with 460,000 contracts pushed straight from 2458 to 2476. Today it kept edging higher and is now at 2480.
The market signal is very clear: the bears can no longer push it down.
The low of that big bearish candle at 2430 was tested twice afterward — 2442 and 2443.69 — and neither broke. A double-bottom structure has formed. The 24-hour low of 2443.69 happened to be the second bottom test, as precise as if it had been measured with a ruler.
In terms of market sentiment, the funding rate is 0.0071%, ridiculously low. Longs are not crowded, and shorts are not adding aggressively either. The mark price at 2480.14 and the index price at 2481.22 are almost identical, with less than 1 yuan in basis. At this kind of level, it is often the calm before the storm.
What are the big players doing? Just look at volume and price. On the down day, 1.78 million contracts was record-like volume, but during the later low-volume sideways phase, there was no sustained large-order outflow. That suggests the people who were dumping had achieved their goal and then stopped. This was not trend-following shorting, but more like a targeted blast to shake out weak hands.
From a volume-price structure perspective, ETH rebounded from 2430 to 2480, gaining 50 points, with volume gradually expanding. In the latest four 4-hour candles, volume increased from 100,000 to 130,000 to 200,000 to 460,000, steadily rising. This is a healthy bottom-volume rebound pattern, not a fake rally. The 24-hour turnover is 3.015 billion yuan, so liquidity is sufficient.
Candle details: in the latest three 4-hour candles, the bullish bodies have gradually expanded and the lower wicks have become shorter. This shows buyers are becoming more proactive while sellers are weakening. The high of the previous large bullish candle reached 2484.98, only 5 points above the current price. Key overhead resistance is at 2485, 2515, and 2530, forming a layered progression.
As the grandfather of smart contract platforms, ETH has weathered more storms than most coins here. The 2400 to 2500 range, over the past three months, has been a dense chip-exchange zone. Washing it out here before moving higher is much steadier than charging straight up.
Nini’s plan:
Current price: 2480.
Bias: bullish. The 2430 double bottom is confirmed, volume expanded after consolidation and broke upward, and the low funding rate leaves room for longs. First resistance is 2485; if broken, look toward 2515 to 2530. Put the stop-loss at 2440; if the double-bottom structure breaks, exit. Keep position size within 30%; don’t go all in on direction.
If you need a customized strategy, you can find Nini.
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$ETH #Layer1 #Smart Contracts