$HYPE fell from 72.98 to 66.16, a 7.9% drawdown over seven days. But the decline is narrowing. Trading volume has shrunk to one-third of its peak. Some people are waiting for the direction.
▎Volume and Price Re-Cap
The 4H candle at 12:00 on July 7 was the top. It opened at 71.95, hit a high of 72.985, closed at 71.98, with volume of 2.64 million coins—largest among the past 30 candles. Bulls pushed it to around 73, but after that, it was all sell orders.
Immediately after, at 16:00, a large bearish candle came in. It opened at 71.98 and dropped straight to 69.34, closing at 70.15, down 2.5%. This is the first wave of distribution.
During the early hours of July 8, the selloff continued. It opened at 69.19, dipped as low as 67.15, and closed at 68.04. This candle’s volume was 2.07 million—highest sell pressure during the downtrend.
The 12:00 candle on July 8 was the harshest. It opened at 68.87, bottomed at 66.54, and closed at 66.91, down 2.85%. Volatility was 3.55%. After falling to 66.5, people started absorbing.
66.162 is the interim bottom, appearing between July 9 and 10. After that, price never broke this level again.
Since the rebound from 66.16, price action has been a tight-range consolidation. It ranges back and forth between 66.4 and 68.5. The high at 68.45 was tested once on both July 11 and 12, but failed to hold. The low at 66.33 has also been tested repeatedly.
Now it’s closing near 67.21. Over the last 30 4H candles, total traded volume is 33.04 million coins. The first five candles account for 8.56 million, while the last five only 3.22 million. Volume has dropped to 37% of the original level. Consolidation on shrinking volume. No direction has emerged yet, but sell pressure is also fading.
Resistance levels: 68.5 (touched multiple times at the top), 70.1 (below the gap’s lower edge), 72.9 (prior high).
Support levels: 66.5 (bottom of the recent dense trading area), 66.16 (stage low).
▎Funding Rates and Sentiment
Funding rate is 0.0032%, close to zero. Longs don’t seem in a rush to pay, and shorts haven’t gained an advantage. The market is waiting.
Open interest: 5.12 million HYPE, equivalent to about $340 million. This scale isn’t small in the DeFi derivatives segment.
The global long/short ratio over the past few 4H candles has been between 1.2 and 1.3. Long positions slightly outnumber shorts, but the edge isn’t big. Retail is leaning long, but big players may not be.
▎Whale Moves
On-chain records are clear. A whale transferred 14 million USDC to the Hyperliquid platform and bought 8.3 million worth of HYPE. The build position range was $32 to $42. Now at $67, these positions are up roughly 60%-100% floating profit.
The big player hasn’t exited. During the drop from 72 to 66, there’s been no visible large on-chain transfer out. They can hold.
▎Public Opinion
Hyperliquid’s recent KOL influence report is out. Community discussion around the narrative of “decentralized derivatives” is heating up. The official @HyperliquidX account on X remains active. The DeFi sector overall is recovering; as a DEX blue-chip, HYPE has solid attention.
No sudden negative news. No major positive catalyst either. It’s in a narrative buildup phase.
▎Nini’s Plan
Current price: 67.2. No chase.
Going long: wait for a pullback into the 66.5–66.7 zone to enter. Stop loss: 65.8. If it breaks below the 66.16 prior low, exit immediately. Targets: first 68.5, then 70.1. Risk/reward about 1:2.
Going short: short near 68.3–68.5 on the rebound. Stop loss: 69.5. Target: 66.5. Risk/reward about 1:1.5.
Both directions are given. Whichever way the order flow goes, follow it. In a shrinking-volume consolidation period, it’s most taboo to pick a side too early.
▎My Take
It can’t drop much, and it can’t really go up either. Shrinking volume is the answer. Wait for large capital to choose a direction. I’m watching these two levels: 66.5 and 68.5—whichever breaks, follow that.
Price grinds you, but opportunities are created by grinding. Why are you rushing?
#HYPE #Hyperliquid #DeFi #decentralized derivatives