In the past 24 hours, it surged 13.24%. The funding rate has gone to zero. Old dog, watching the move in
$BMNR โthis one is a bit interesting.
The price pushed up to 26, with trading volume of over $46 million, but open interest is under 480,000 contracts. Looking at just these numbers, the question is whether the momentum and the follow-through of capital are being pulled apart.
The angle is M4_mover, a spike. Itโs been climbing hard today, but the funding rate is 0.00000000โthis combination isnโt common. By the iron law, price increases are usually accompanied by a positive funding rate, meaning longs pay the funding cost. Now the rate is zero. That means either the rally pushed price up without longs crowding in enough to actually pay, orโmore likelyโthe long pressure represented by the positive funding rate created earlier, caused by the squeeze of shorts, has already ended and the short covering has finished. Open interest hasnโt provided historical comparison; looking only at ~470k, itโs not particularly high, so there isnโt strong evidence of large-scale new long entry. Without comparable data from other secondary coins in the same sector, we canโt tell whether
$BMNR is leading the sector. But the exclusive move in this round is obvious. Plainly put, this looks more like a price pulse driven by shorts capitulating and exiting, not the beginning of a systematic buildup of new capital.
My take is that the short-term momentum may be fading. The most counterintuitive part is that everyone thinks โup means strong,โ but I see the funding rate going to zero as a warning signal. It implies the force of short covering that drove price higher has already been released. If there isnโt fresh long capital willing to pay positive funding rates to take over, the price is likely to pull back. The cost will be borne by the longs who chased at high levels, and liquidity may shift into a wait-and-see mode next.
In terms of action, Iโm choosing not to chase. Iโll wait. If the price can hold steady around the current level, or after a pullback it doesnโt break key support and then ramps up on volume, while the funding rate turns positive and open interest increases significantly, then Iโll reassess. Chasing in now is essentially betting that new longs will enter and take over immediatelyโthe odds arenโt favorable.
Invalidation is simple: If tomorrow
$BMNR breaks above todayโs high and continues with strong volume, and meanwhile the funding rate turns positive, it would mean new longsโwilling to pay costsโhave entered. Then my โmomentum fadingโ view would be wrong; Iโd need to exit and observe, or even flip.
Trading tag:
#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDโM
#BMNR #BMNRUSDT $BMNR