#willfomcminutesreinforceratehikeexpectations?
🚨 Hike priced in at ~90%. So what can Wednesday’s FOMC minutes still change?
The setup:
Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct 28 (10–2). Cook and Hammack wanted a 25 bps hike. CME FedWatch shows ~89% odds of a 25 bps hike on Dec 9, with ~11% for 50 bps after Waller floated a bigger move. Minutes drop Nov 18, 2:00 PM ET.
What I’m watching:
How many officials backed a hike, not just the two dissenters. Any debate over a 50 bps move. Tone on growth, since a hawkish surprise strengthens the dollar and pressures risk assets.
My take: a 25 bps hike is already in the price. The real catalyst is a signal that goes beyond it. If the minutes only confirm what’s known, BTC could see a relief bounce; if they show a wider hawkish bloc, expect volatility as the dollar and yields climb. I’m keeping leverage low into the release.
Are you hedging or waiting for the print? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
$ETH
$PAXG
#FOMC #Fed #Bitcoin
🚨 Hike priced in at ~90%. So what can Wednesday’s FOMC minutes still change?
The setup:
Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct 28 (10–2). Cook and Hammack wanted a 25 bps hike. CME FedWatch shows ~89% odds of a 25 bps hike on Dec 9, with ~11% for 50 bps after Waller floated a bigger move. Minutes drop Nov 18, 2:00 PM ET.
What I’m watching:
How many officials backed a hike, not just the two dissenters. Any debate over a 50 bps move. Tone on growth, since a hawkish surprise strengthens the dollar and pressures risk assets.
My take: a 25 bps hike is already in the price. The real catalyst is a signal that goes beyond it. If the minutes only confirm what’s known, BTC could see a relief bounce; if they show a wider hawkish bloc, expect volatility as the dollar and yields climb. I’m keeping leverage low into the release.
Are you hedging or waiting for the print? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
$ETH
$PAXG
#FOMC #Fed #Bitcoin
