October core CPI came in hot on Tuesday, +0.3% m/m against 0.2% expected and the third 0.3% in a row. Fed funds futures added to December the way I thought they would on a repeat print... they settled with 1.08 hikes priced for the December meeting, up from 0.80 the day before.
The bigger move was further out the strip, though. March went from 1.48 hikes to 2.36 at the same settle, while December only added 0.28. That's the market pricing a Fed that keeps going into 2027, and Logan, a voter, said as much on Tuesday, "at least two more 25bp hikes, possibly faster this winter."
I watch $XAU and Bitcoin through the long real yield, since neither pays a cash flow, and I think a hiking path that runs into next year is a headwind for both. The bond market's closed today for Veterans Day and PPI comes out Friday, so I'll be watching whether it pushes that March pricing any higher.
#Gold #CPI #Fed #Rates #Macro
The bigger move was further out the strip, though. March went from 1.48 hikes to 2.36 at the same settle, while December only added 0.28. That's the market pricing a Fed that keeps going into 2027, and Logan, a voter, said as much on Tuesday, "at least two more 25bp hikes, possibly faster this winter."
I watch $XAU and Bitcoin through the long real yield, since neither pays a cash flow, and I think a hiking path that runs into next year is a headwind for both. The bond market's closed today for Veterans Day and PPI comes out Friday, so I'll be watching whether it pushes that March pricing any higher.
#Gold #CPI #Fed #Rates #Macro