🟠 A hot jobs report pushed Bitcoin under September's low while chip stocks bounced. Here is what the data shows, what it can't prove, and what to watch.
🚨 Chip stocks bounced on Friday. Bitcoin slid below September's low. The usual trading partners went in opposite directions on the same day, and one jobs number may explain why. 🤔
📊 What Happened?
Bitcoin traded near $75,352 on Friday after touching $74,888, briefly under September's low of $74,968. It also sits below its 200-day EMA at $76,543. The slide followed a 5.55% drop on Thursday that more than erased Wednesday's 4.02% gain.
💼 The Jobs Shock
The US added 165,000 jobs in October against a forecast of about 59,000. Unemployment slipped to 4.1%. Prediction markets now price a December Fed hike at roughly 76% to 78%. That is up from around 65% the day before. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on October 28.
These are market odds, not a Fed decision, so treat them as a snapshot.
🧊 The Chip Split
On Thursday the two moved together. The semiconductor index fell about 12.3%, the S&P 500 lost roughly $2.9 trillion in value, and about $1.09B in leveraged positions were liquidated, mostly longs. On Friday, Nasdaq stocks recovered around 1.9% while Bitcoin kept testing lower.
🛑 What a One-Day Split Doesn't Prove
One session of divergence doesn't prove Bitcoin has decoupled from tech, and it doesn't explain why. One Franklin Templeton strategist said the report renews pressure on the Fed to hike after post-midterm fears of a slower AI buildout had cooled hike expectations. That is one view, not a confirmed cause.
🔄 The ETF Signal
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $74.57M on November 4, ending three days of outflows, but that was not enough to offset the selling. One day of inflows is a clue, not a trend.
📅 The Calendar Factor
Inflation data arrives on November 10, the Fed minutes on November 18 and the next jobs report on December 4. The Fed meets on December 8 and 9. Rate expectations are the live variable right now, so each date can shift hike odds.
🟢 The Bullish Case
A daily close back above $76,543, then a reclaim of $77,970, the level lost on Thursday, would suggest buyers are returning. Softer inflation data would help that case.
⚠️ The Risk Scenario
A daily close under September's low would confirm the break. If the next data keeps hike odds high, pressure on risk assets could continue. Leveraged traders are the most exposed, as Thursday's long liquidations showed.
👀 Three Things to Watch Next
Does Bitcoin secure a daily close above the 200-day EMA at $76,543?
Does the November 10 inflation report move December hike odds from the 76% to 78% area?
Do spot Bitcoin ETFs keep seeing inflows after November 4?
💡 The Takeaway
Bitcoin slipped under September's low as a hot jobs report lifted December hike odds, while chip stocks recovered.
Both the rate story and Bitcoin's weak response are worth watching, but one session doesn't confirm a trend break.
I would pay particular attention to whether Bitcoin can close above $76,543, because that would tell us more than any single day's move.
🎯 If you had to watch only one this week, would you choose Bitcoin's $76,543 level or the November 10 inflation report? And what matters more to you: the rate story or the chart?
I'm interested in hearing how you read this. Share your view below. 👇
That is the part worth watching.
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
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