For the third time in three weeks, the same trade: Treasuries bought, bitcoin sold.
Brent trades near $112, close to its four-year high of $114.44 from May, on reports that US and Israeli strikes on Iran could resume after the midterms and on attacks claimed against Aramco facilities. Tech sold off again after megacap earnings, with AI spending under scrutiny. Treasuries took the safety bid: the 10-year fell to 5.03% today. $BTC was on the other side of that bid again, and is back near 81,700.
The rates framework has delivered its verdict. Friday's weekly close at 5.08% was the second below the 5.26% close of June 2007. On the framework we published, the 2007 level is now resistance. The 10-year is back near 5%, the level it accepted on 23 September. Markets price a hold at next week's Fed meeting, near 90%, with a December hike still the more likely path.
Bitcoin
$BTC traded up to 84,840 on Wednesday, above 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost on 8 October, then gave the move back within a day. A print is not acceptance. It is the second failed attempt on the level in a week, after the CPI-day rally stalled just beneath it.
Near 81,700, price is 35% retraced on the grid we published. 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, remains the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance above 84,047 is still what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is what changes the structure.
Positioning
Unchanged and balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in $HBAR, $XLM and $AVAX.
Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.