RecodeX

📡 Top-of-the-hour Update | 21:00-22:00

1. Trump meets with Zelensky and says the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made progress. He also warns there may be further strikes on Iran. Traffic for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz is basically stalled, intensifying global energy supply concerns.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF inflows increase. Analysts believe BTC has bottomed and rebounded. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s president has signed a decree to accelerate the adoption of crypto technologies, including natural-gas power generation for mining and tax exemptions on income.

3. The three major U.S. stock indexes open lower. The Nasdaq falls 0.31%, but a benchmark index for leading Chinese concept stocks jumps 3%. Alibaba rises more than 9%. The chip sector opens lower then strengthens, while Western Digital gains more than 3%.

4. Musk announces that Grok 4.5 will be released on July 9. Former GitHub CEO launches the decentralized Git network Entire and plans to open-source the backend to handle high-traffic coding agents.

5. World Gold Council data shows that in the first half of the year, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $8 billion. Oil prices jump in the short term: WTI crude is at $73.71 per barrel, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

6. Apple and Broadcom sign a customized ASIC deal worth more than $30 billion. The partnership extends to 2031 and will produce 15 billion chips in the United States.

7. The world’s first solid-state battery manned fixed-wing aircraft successfully completes a test flight. Energy density reaches 410 Wh/kg, a 60% improvement over conventional lithium batteries—signaling that solid-state batteries are moving from the lab toward crewed aviation.

8. For the first time, the U.S. Department of Defense includes lithium in the defense stockpile and tenders for battery-grade lithium carbonate procurement. The market believes this is more of a policy signal than a direct shift in supply and demand.

📡 Hourly Update | 20:00-21:00

1. Blue Origin completed a $10 billion fundraising round at a valuation of $130 billion. Bezos personally invested $2 billion, showing strong private capital commitment to space exploration.

2. U.S. inflation expectations rose to the highest level in years. The one-year outlook is 3.7%, and the three-year indicator hit its highest since June 2022. Meanwhile, the trade deficit climbed to a 14-month high.

3. Trump said the Iran ceasefire agreement has ended, leading to a stock market drop and a sharp jump in oil prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East may affect the global oil market.

4. MiniMax plans to open-source a 27-billion-parameter model in Q3, which could become the world’s largest open-source AI model, intensifying competition in the AI space.

5. Nvidia’s market value shed $1 trillion over two months, signaling a reversal in momentum for AI stocks. At the same time, Cathie Wood increased her holdings of SpaceX, shifting attention toward the private space sector.

6. South Korea’s stock market triggered a trading halt on the day Samsung released its best-ever quarterly results. Foreign investors sold in large volumes while retail investors stepped in as buyers, highlighting structural risks.

7. Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation-and-bottoming window. Strategies of selling off have not triggered panic; market sentiment remains stable, but analysts warn that capitulation hasn’t fully happened yet.

8. Amazon has reportedly been quietly advancing its Alexa agent project “Moonraker.” It’s expected that GPU spending in 2026 will exceed $100 million, and the high costs have raised internal concerns.

📡 On-the-hour News Brief | 19:00-20:00

1. The situation in the Middle East escalates sharply: the U.S. military launches strikes against Iran; Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliates by destroying 85 U.S. military facilities. Several oil tankers turn around to avoid danger in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU advises airlines to avoid airspace over Iraq/Iran and Lebanon. Oil prices dip by $1 in the short term, while gold jumps by $20.

2. OpenAI announces its GPT-5.6 series models (Sol, Terra, Luna) will be released to the public on July 9, ending the preview testing phase.

3. The central bank’s regular meeting emphasizes continuing to implement moderately loose monetary policy, keeping liquidity abundant, strengthening interest-rate guidance, and stabilizing the exchange rate. In a statement, ECB Executive Board member Näger says a sequential decision-making approach at successive meetings is appropriate in the current context.

4. U.S. tech sector updates: Apple and Broadcom deepen their chip partnership exceeding $30 billion. Samsung announces it will release a foldable phone on July 22. Nvidia’s new architecture requirements favor all-immersion liquid cooling, benefitting A-share liquid-cooling companies.

5. Cryptocurrency market: Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has stayed negative for 51 straight days, hitting a record. Strategy’s BTC holdings increased by 10% over the past three months. BNB Chain plans to launch a new L1 blockchain.

6. Autonomous driving company Momenta lists on the HKEX. Its market value briefly exceeded HK$70 billion, but it recorded an annual loss of RMB 3.458 billion. Net IPO fundraising is about HK$5.6 billion for R&D and commercializing Robotaxi.

7. In commodities: Bernstein predicts the memory bull market will continue through 2027, but the upward phase has already ended. A surge in memory prices has created “rich masters” in Huaqiangbei. Kodiak Gas signs an 1.8 billion-watt power generation agreement with Baker Hughes to support AI development.

8. Macro risks: Super Typhoon “Bavi” is expected to make landfall from Fujian to the Zhejiang coast on the 11th. The National Disaster Management and Emergency Response Headquarters has activated a Level IV emergency response. An attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan province killed 42 people.

📡 Hourly Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Apple and Broadcom have reached a multi-year chip deal worth over $30 billion, with plans to produce more than 15 billion chips in the United States to further diversify the supply chain.

2. Nvidia’s market value has shed $100 billion in less than two months, with its stock price down 16% from its all-time high. U.S. chip stocks were lower in premarket trading, and SanDisk fell more than 6%.

3. China’s AI company MiniMax has released its 27T-parameter model, M3 Pro. Its performance surpasses overseas closed-source models, with plans to open-source as early as Q3.

4. SpaceX will publicly release the Grok 4.5 AI model on July 9, with faster performance and higher efficiency.

5. The People’s Bank of China’s Monetary Policy Committee emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments, and maintaining ample liquidity.

6. The cryptocurrency HYPE token reportedly offers daily staking rewards of about $1 million, but the LAB token fell 85% over 24 hours. It has been warned about potential price manipulation.

7. South Korea’s Kospi index is down more than 20% from its June peak. Samsung and SK Hynix both fell more than 5% due to concerns over chip trading.

8. The European Court of Justice rejected Apple’s challenge, upholding its decision to designate the App Store and iOS as “gatekeepers,” requiring compliance with the Digital Markets Act.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 17:00-18:00

1. Trump says the temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran has ended. Oil surged more than 3%, the Nasdaq 100 futures decline widened to 1.5%, and European stocks fell to a one-week low.

2. China’s CNVD claims that the AI programming tool Claude Code has a security backdoor that can exfiltrate sensitive information, advising users to uninstall or update it.

3. After 6 months, SpaceX transferred a small amount of BTC (about $88) for the first time, seemingly to test a transfer, drawing market attention.

4. The European Court of Justice dismissed Apple’s appeal against its classification as a “gatekeeper” platform for the App Store and iOS, upholding the regulatory requirements under the Digital Markets Act.

5. South Korea’s KOSPI index is down more than 20% from its June peak. Leveraged ETFs from Samsung and SK Hynix face risk warnings after sharp declines.

6. Musk’s SpaceXAI will release its Grok 4.5 model to the public tomorrow. Its level of intelligence is comparable to Claude Opus, but at lower cost.

7. Spot gold fell 1.21% during the day, dropping below $4,060 per ounce. New York COMEX silver fell 4%, and gold jewelry prices in China were collectively lowered.

8. Bank of America said the biggest obstacle to cross-border payments is providing the same certainty, visibility, and immediacy as domestic payments.

📡 On-the-hour News Update | 16:00-17:00

1. Trump says the U.S.-Iran understanding memorandum has been terminated. Iran launches attacks on U.S. military bases, causing a rapid escalation of the situation in the Middle East. International oil prices jump in the short term: WTI crude futures rise more than 4%, and Brent crude futures rise more than 4%.

2. U.S. stock futures fall in pre-market trading. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures drop 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. The semiconductor and memory sectors continue to decline, with Micron and SanDisk down more than 5%. Bitcoin falls below $62,000.

3. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closes up 2.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rises 4.97% at the close. Alibaba surges more than 12%, while Xiaomi rises more than 9%.

4. JPMorgan says that commercialization of open-source-weighted models has created a winner-takes-all pattern. It raises Zhipu’s target price to HKD 2,000 and cuts MiniMax’s target price to HKD 300.

5. Several chemical companies report a significant year-on-year increase in first-half earnings. Benefiting from improved industry supply and demand and geopolitical tensions pushing up prices of petrochemical products, Oriental Shenghong’s earnings are expected to grow by up to nearly 12 times, while Hengyi Petrochemical’s are expected to increase by more than 20 times.

6. Renowned economist Gao Shanwen passes away due to illness. In his book, “The Truth About Economic Operations,” he argues that China’s economic slowdown process has not yet ended, facing challenges such as a decline in investment rates, elevated leverage and an aging population.

7. DeepSeek and Zhipu AI begin developing their own AI inference chips, aiming to lower costs and reduce reliance on GPUs. It signals that leading AI labs are shifting toward in-house chip development.

8. Spot gold falls below the $4,100 level. COMEX gold futures drop 1.42% intraday, losing the $4,100 per ounce mark.

📡 Hourly News Update | 15:00-16:00

1. Iran threatens to strike locations supporting U.S. attacks; tensions in the Middle East escalate. International crude oil gains expand to 3%, and Bitcoin falls below $63,000.

2. Musk announces that SpaceX will open Grok 4.5 to the public tomorrow. Joshua Achiam, a longtime OpenAI veteran, steps down, emphasizing that the AGI mission is not confined within the walls of a lab.

3. Binance will distribute an Alpha Box airdrop at 17:00 to users with 245积分 points. The founder of Gate receives a MiCA license early, which will help drive fair competition in Europe’s crypto market.

4. European stock markets fall. Germany’s DAX extends its decline to 1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 1.85%, and China’s A-share market’s three major indices all fall.

5. U.S. lawmakers are considering limiting domestic companies from using Chinese AI models. Four ministries and agencies, including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, jointly issue guidance to advance applications of “AI + HR.”

6. Apple loses in its legal dispute with the EU over app store and iPhone rules. The U.S. Supreme Court allows Texas to implement an age-verification law for app stores.

7. Sinopec signs the design contract for the first whole-industry-chain sustainable aviation fuel project in Uzbekistan. BHP and China Ruilin sign a contract worth over 200 million AUD to support the expansion of South Australia’s copper smelting plant.

8. Singapore’s anti-scam center, working with five banks, stops more than 600 attempted scams within two months, preventing losses of over S$38 million.

📡 8-hour Recap | Jul 08 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets saw sharp volatility under the twin shocks of rapidly escalating geopolitical tensions and a dense stream of AI-related technology releases. The Iran-U.S. ceasefire collapsed: the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on Iran and expanded the scope of its attacks. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard struck U.S. facilities, causing the Middle East situation to suddenly heat up. This drove international oil prices up by more than 5% and triggered major divergence across global stock markets. Meanwhile, major players such as OpenAI, Meta, and SpaceX rolled out AI models and tools in quick succession. Technology stocks carved out a differentiated recovery amid panic—China’s A-share and Hong Kong tech sectors rebounded strongly—while the South Korean market plunged by more than 6% as foreign capital withdrew.

Macroeconomy

1. Full-scale escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. military said it has completed another round of strikes against Iran’s coastal bases and revoked oil exemptions. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated by striking 85 targets of the U.S. military in Bahrain and Kuwait and downed an MQ-9 drone. The rising tensions in the Middle East pushed international oil prices higher: Brent crude rose more than 5% to above $76 per barrel.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell intraday by more than 6%—down over 20% from its June peak. The drop triggered the KOSDAQ circuit-breaker mechanism. Foreign investors pulled out more than $100 billion, and the South Korean government pledged to closely monitor market volatility and strengthen FX surveillance.

3. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield rose to 2.855%, the highest level since October 1996, partly pressured by rising crude prices. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 basis points and signaled it would tighten policy further.

4. China’s central bank conducted a 150 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan. The RMB/USD central parity rate was set at 6.8077, down by 23 pips. Forty-two A-share bank stocks collectively traded below net asset value, and several banks released plans to improve valuations.

5. Demand in major global automobile markets is expected to shrink across the board. An Autobrief report predicted China’s 2026 sales would fall 10% to 24.6 million units, while exports could rise to nearly 10 million units.

Crypto Market

1. Crypto prices broadly declined. Bitcoin fell below $63,000, SOL fell below $80, and the DeFi sector dropped nearly 9%. The Fear & Greed Index hit a new 19-month low, and the market slipped into extreme panic.

2. Suspected Bitmine wallet activity showed receipt of 40,000 ETH (worth $71.62 million) from Kraken and FalconX, indicating large-scale accumulation of Ethereum by mining entities. One whale opened a $31.08 million BTC short position with 40x leverage.

3. Russia’s State Duma approved the final version of a crypto regulation bill, removing the requirement for mandatory wallet address disclosures—suggesting a more relaxed regulatory stance. Meanwhile, the U.S. CFTC filed a lawsuit against operators of crypto-asset commodity pools accused of defrauding investors.

4. Robinhood’s on-chain stablecoin supply grew 155% over 7 days, accounting for more than 90% of that chain’s TVS. South Korea fintech Toss partnered with Optimism to explore issuing KRW stablecoins.

5. CASHCAT’s market cap briefly surpassed $98 million, with a more than 11x gain over 24 hours. Pi Network’s token crashed over 7% to a new historical low.

AI Technology

1. OpenAI announced it will release three GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna models this coming Thursday, already approved for global release by the U.S. government. The Trump administration lifted restrictions on GPT-5.6, which could accelerate AI development.

2. Meta launched an AI image generation tool based on its Muse model, integrated into Instagram and WhatsApp. It also introduced an invisible watermark system called Content Seal. Anthropic plans to expand its New York team to 1,000 people.

3. Musk announced SpaceX AI will publicly release the Grok 4.5 model tomorrow, calling it “Opus-level,” with faster speed and lower costs. Tencent released the official version of the Hy3 large model to improve task success rates in office scenarios.

4. ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba’s large-model products—Doubao, Qianwen, and Yuanbao—separately shut down their agent features due to high compliance costs and unclear commercialization prospects. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a risk alert about preventing AI programming tools like Claude Code from possible security backdoor vulnerabilities.

5. China approved for public listing the world’s first invasive brain-computer interface medical device. BoRuiKang is pushing for the STAR Market with its “brain-computer interface first stock.” Ant Group launched a new-generation space perception model that could help robots overcome the perception challenges of transparent objects.

Geopolitics

1. The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply: The U.S. military said it has completed a new round of strikes on Iran, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it struck 85 U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait and threatened more attacks. Kuwait’s military intercepted hostile missiles and drones.

2. Poland’s president warned that Putin could use force against NATO’s eastern flank at any time. NATO released a defense procurement plan totaling more than $40 billion, including investment in anti-drone capabilities and drone procurement.

3. Hackers stole core confidential data totaling 630GB from Tata Electronics’ plant in India related to Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Max, then sold it on the dark web. The EU will vote again to extend the “chat control” regulation, requiring tech companies to scan users’ private communications.

Stock Markets & Commodities

1. A-shares staged a rebound after dipping in the early session. The Sci-Tech 50 index rose more than 3% at midday. Computing power leasing, AI servers, and the semiconductor supply chain all strengthened together. Multiple stocks including GigaDevice and Topsec hit the daily limit. The total traded value across Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.72 trillion yuan within half a day.

2. Hong Kong stocks opened higher and kept climbing. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 5%, the Hang Seng Index rose more than 3%. Alibaba rose more than 12%, and Xiaomi rose more than 8%. Southbound net buy inflows totaled 12 billion Hong Kong dollars.

3. Stock markets in Korea and Japan closed sharply lower. South Korea’s composite index fell more than 5%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.9%. U.S. equities all closed lower: the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.65%.

4. Commodities diverged: Crude oil futures’ main contracts all strengthened. Pure benzene, fuel oil, and SC crude rose more than 5%. Spot silver rose 1% to $60.60 per ounce, while gold prices held steady; National...

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📡 On-the-hour Update | 14:00-15:00

1. Iran’s military regards U.S. military bases in the Middle East as legitimate targets for attack. Meanwhile, multiple explosions are reported from Bushehr Province. Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, which may affect the global energy market.

2. Musk announced that SpaceX AI will公開发布 the Grok 4.5 model tomorrow. He calls it an “Opus-level” release—faster and at lower cost—sparking significant interest in the AI field.

3. Hong Kong stocks opened higher and surged. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 5%, the Hang Seng Index rose more than 3%, Alibaba gained over 12%, and Xiaomi rose more than 8%. In contrast, the Japanese and South Korean markets closed sharply lower, with South Korea’s composite index down more than 5%.

4. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. ANSEM’s price quickly fell after frequent message reposts. Early buyers of CASHCAT turned their $86 investment into $390,000 within 20 days—an ROI of 4,534x.

5. Apple’s first foldable-screen iPhone Ultra (China domestic version) enters mass production. The first batch includes up to 1 million units. Alipay’s “tap-to-pay” user base exceeds 400 million, and in 2026 it will focus on opening the Agent intelligent-agent service network.

6. The EU will vote again to extend the controversial “Chat Control” regulation. It requires tech companies to scan users’ private communications to combat child sexual abuse content, raising privacy concerns.

7. Storage chip prices continue to rise. In smartphone bill-of-material costs below $400, the storage component’s share is approaching 60%, squeezing profit margins for low-priced models and leading brands to reduce the frequency of launching entry-level phones.

8. iRuiBo (Irvpb) reports that it expects global demand across major automobile markets in 2026 to contract across the board. China’s sales are projected to decline 10% to 24.6 million vehicles, but exports may rise to nearly 10 million.

📡 Hourly Update | 13:00-14:00

1. The decline in South Korea’s KOSPI index widened to 6%, closing at 7,191.33 points—down more than 20% from the June peak. The exchange launched a circuit-breaker mechanism for the KOSDAQ index, while foreign investors pulled out over $100 billion.

2. Iranian military forces struck the U.S.-backed Bahrain base, warning of more attacks and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Poland’s president also warned that Putin may use force against NATO’s eastern flank at any time.

3. OpenAI announced it will release GPT-5.6 on Thursday, after previously postponing the launch. Tencent released the official version of its Hy3 large model, improving the success rate of tasks in office scenarios.

4. Hong Kong stock tech shares rose in the afternoon. Alibaba surged by more than 10%, with gains also seen in Kuaishou, Xiaomi, Baidu, and others. Net southbound capital purchases reached HK$12 billion.

5. The U.S. revoked an exemption for Iranian oil sales, leaving about 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stranded offshore and affecting global oil supply.

6. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a risk alert on preventing security backdoor hazards in AI programming tools like Claude Code, warning of possible risks such as data leakage and code tampering.

7. Ant Group strategically invested in Mint Health and became its largest external shareholder. The two sides jointly rolled out AI health services. Momenta listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on its first day of trading and opened up more than 6%, with its market value surpassing HK$70 billion.

8. Bitcoin pulled back amid geopolitical developments. The Pi Network token crashed by more than 7% to a new all-time low. Korea’s fintech company Toss partnered with Optimism to explore issuing a KRW stablecoin.

📡 Hourly News | 12:00-13:00

1. Rapid escalation in the US–Iran situation: After US airstrikes hit Iranian coastal bases, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated by striking 85 targets of the US military in Bahrain and Kuwait, and also shot down an MQ-9 drone—geopolitical risk pushed oil prices higher.

2. OpenAI announced it will release three models—GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna—this Thursday. It has received approval from the US government for broad rollout, further upgrading AI capabilities.

3. South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged more than 5% during the day. Samsung Electronics fell 6%, while SK hynix surged then retreated. Market sentiment is extremely bleak.

4. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a new 19-year low, plunging the market into extreme fear. Robinhood’s on-chain stablecoin supply grew 155% over 7 days, accounting for over 90% of that chain’s TVS.

5. Model products under ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba—Doubao, Qianwen, and Yuanbao—successively shut down their agent features due to high compliance costs and unclear commercialization prospects.

6. At the midday close of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 4.34%. The semiconductor sector surged, and Tianshu Zhixin rose 11%.

7. Japanese aluminum buyers agreed to pay a $395 per ton premium for Q3—the highest since 2015—due to supply tightness caused by the US–Iran war.

8. The national summer culture and tourism consumption season has launched. More than 450 million yuan in consumption vouchers will be issued, along with over 30,000 events to boost spending.

📡 Hourly News Update | 11:00-12:00

1. Geopolitical situation escalates sharply: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims it has struck 85 U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to the U.S. violating the ceasefire agreement. The U.S. military says it has completed a new round of strikes on Iran, hitting more than 80 targets. Kuwait’s military intercepts hostile missiles and drones, and heightened tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher.

2. The Trump administration lifts restrictions on OpenAI’s GPT 5.6, allowing it to be released globally—potentially accelerating AI development and affecting the blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors.

3. China A-shares rebound after dipping early in the session: the Sci-Tech 50 index rose more than 3% in the first half day. Stocks tied to power/compute leasing, AI servers, and the semiconductor industry chain collectively strengthened. Multiple shares including Inspur Information and DeepSignal all hit the daily limit. The total trading value across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.72 trillion yuan in the first half of the day.

4. Cryptocurrency market volatility remains intense: a “big whale” opened a $310.8 million BTC short position using 40x leverage and was up $1.124 million at one point. CASHCAT’s market cap briefly surpassed $98 million, with a gain of more than 11x over 24 hours. The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit against a cryptocurrency commodity pool operator accused of fraud against investors exceeding $14 million.

5. Commodities diverge: oil futures led higher, with gains over 5% in pure benzene, fuel oil, and SC crude. Spot silver rose 1% to $60.60 per ounce; gold prices were steady. In China, branded gold jewelry listing prices were collectively cut, falling more than 450 yuan per gram from the year’s peak.

6. New Zealand central bank raises rates by 25 bps and signals further tightening, emphasizing increasing uncertainty about the timing of future hikes. Thailand’s central bank warns that inflation in 2026 may fall below expectations.

7. Technology and AI updates: Huawei will release a new generation of computing clusters at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, along with the world’s first AI smart-agent smartphone. Ant Group launches a new generation of spatial perception models that can overcome robots’ perception challenges with transparent objects. Anthropic plans to expand its New York team to 1,000 people, aiming to compete with industry giants like OpenAI for prime locations.

8. Macros and regulation: The Korean government warns of concentrated risks in the semiconductor industry and will closely monitor stock market volatility. The Shanghai Stock Exchange upgrades its e-interaction regulatory measures, pausing reply permissions for companies that “chase hot topics.” The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launches the 2026 national summer culture and tourism consumption season, featuring more than 30,000 events and distributing over 450 million yuan in consumption vouchers.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 10:00-11:00

1. An Iranian armed forces statement says it will firmly respond to U.S. attacks and reiterates that no interference in the management of the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed. The warming situation in the Middle East is driving strength in Hong Kong-listed oil stocks.

2. Zhipu AI’s planned in-house chip development sent its share price up by more than 10%. Tencent Hunyuan’s multimodal AI initiative has reportedly recruited Tian Yonglong, an OpenAI researcher.

3. Trading turnover across both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan. The ChiNext Index rebounded sharply in a V-shape back into positive territory. The data-center/compute leasing concept continued to rise, and multiple stocks such as Yunsai Zhilian hit the daily trading limit.

4. Bitcoin’s unrealized net profit/loss is approaching the zero line as it nears the 100-day moving average, which may be a key indicator of a cyclical bottom. Crypto markets generally fell, and the DeFi sector dropped by nearly 9%.

5. Ant Group invested in Mint Health. With a stake of over 28%, it becomes the largest external shareholder. The two sides will jointly build AI-enabled health services.

6. NATO has unveiled a military procurement plan totaling more than $40 billion, including building anti-drone capabilities and purchasing drones.

7. Hackers stole core confidential data—630GB worth—about Apple iPhone 18 Pro Max from Tata Electronics’ factory in India and are selling it on the dark web.

8. Momenta, a physical AI company, saw its global issuance of shares receive 44 times oversubscription. Sovereign funds and long-term funds actively participated.

📡 Hourly News | 09:00-10:00

1. The U.S. Central Command announced a military strike against Iran and reinstated oil sanctions, triggering global market risk-aversion. Crude oil jumped more than 4%, and U.S. stock index futures steadied.

2. Waves Information surged to a one-word limit-up. It is expected that net profit in the first half of 2026 will grow year-on-year by 226%-288%. Hong Kong chip stocks rebounded across the board, with Shanghai Fudan rising more than 10%.

3. Russia’s State Duma approved the final version of a crypto regulation bill. Mandatory wallet-address reporting requirements were removed, and the regulatory stance is becoming more lenient. Bitcoin fell below $63,000 and SOL dropped below $80.

4. China approved the world’s first invasive brain-computer interface medical device for listing. Capital is pouring in, and Borui Kang is sprinting to the STAR Market for a bid to become the “No.1 brain-computer interface stock.”

5. Today the People’s Bank of China conducted a 150-billion-yuan seven-day reverse repo operation, with net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan. The RMB/USD midpoint rate was set at 6.8077, down 23 pips.

6. Newphoton (set up by the founder of O-Film) has moved into North American top-tier customers. Its optical module factories are running at full capacity, targeting annual output value of 40 billion yuan over the next three years.

7. A magnitude-5.0 earthquake struck Yibin, Gaoxian County in Sichuan, injuring two people lightly and prompting the emergency relocation of 297 people. The massive Typhoon “Bavi” is approaching, and the Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration activated a Level-III emergency response to typhoon conditions.

8. Forty-two A-share bank stocks collectively traded below their net asset value. Several banks issued valuation-increase plans, encouraging convertible bond conversion to replenish capital.

📡 Hourly News | 08:00-09:00

1. Escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict: the U.S. revokes Iran’s oil exemption and expands the scale of strikes. Brent crude rises by over 3% to $76.39 per barrel, while spot gold breaks through $4,120 per ounce.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI index opens down more than 3%, then reverses to close up. SK hynix rises by over 4%, Samsung Electronics erases an early 4% decline, and the South Korean government pledges to closely monitor stock market volatility.

3. Meta launches an AI image generation tool, Muse Image, and integrates it into Instagram and WhatsApp. It also adds privacy-protection features for smart glasses.

4. A suspected Bitmine wallet has received 40,000 ETH from Kraken and FalconX (worth $71.62 million), indicating large-scale accumulation of Ethereum by mining entities.

5. CITIC Securities believes the coal sector is in a new round of rebound, estimating that in the first half of 2026, net profit of sample companies will grow year over year by about 19%.

6. A magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurs in Gaoxian County, Yibin, Sichuan. China’s Earthquake Administration initiates a Level III emergency response, and multiple high-speed rail lines are affected, resulting in delays.

7. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rises to 2.855%, the highest level since October 1996, dragged by higher oil prices.

8. Xiaomi Auto officially announces its new brand, SkyNomad. It will release its first range-extended SUV soon, with plans to launch it in the second half of 2026.

📡 Hourly News Update | 07:00-08:00

1. The U.S. military launched airstrikes on Iran’s southern regions and expanded the scale of attacks. Iran’s president returned home early, international oil prices jumped sharply, and tensions in the Middle East intensified.

2. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower together. The semiconductor sector slumped heavily, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.65%.

3. SK hynix expects to begin trading on Nasdaq on July 10. It will use a pre-issuance trading model initially, with the stock ticker SKHYV.

4. Meta launched an AI image generation tool based on the Muse model. It requires users of public Instagram accounts to proactively opt out in order to stop AI from generating content.

5. Samsung confirmed it will hold the Galaxy Unpacked event on July 22, with expectations to unveil the Galaxy Z Fold 8 series and the Watch 9.

6. Gold fell below $4,100 per ounce. U.S. and Brent crude both surged 5%, and the TAC token plunged 90% within 15 minutes.

7. The State Administration for Market Regulation will conduct spot checks for the 2026 fair competition review. In the first half of the year, 11,465 cases of unfair competition nationwide were investigated and handled.

8. Apple’s iOS 27 brings AI features to the News app, including 13 updates such as context suggestions, Siri writing, and smart replies.

📡 8-Hour Recap | Jul 08, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets saw sharp volatility. The key drivers were a rapid escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: the U.S. military launched large-scale strikes against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz security threat was raised to “severe,” and international oil prices surged by more than 5%. Risk-off sentiment lifted the U.S. dollar, but gold unexpectedly fell. At the same time, U.S. tech stocks continued their downturn— the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.65%. The AI and cryptocurrency markets diverged: institutional funds flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, but token markets experienced extreme volatility.

Macroeconomy

1. A New York Fed survey shows that U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose to 3.67% in June, increasing market concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy.

2. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, but the rate-hike probability for September rose to 52.7%. Markets are focused on tomorrow’s FOMC meeting minutes.

3. China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued its “15th Five-Year Plan” tourism powerhouse initiative. The goal is 8.3 billion domestic trips and total spending of 7.7 trillion yuan by 2030.

4. The Securities Regulatory Commission plans to revise refinancing rules to end discount-arbitrage schemes. In the first half of the year, Hong Kong-listed companies’ share repurchase scale reached HK$94.4 billion, with Tencent leading.

Crypto Market

1. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $265.7 million on July 6, indicating a rebound in institutional demand. If Bitcoin falls below $60,795, the liquidation intensity for long positions could reach $1.577 billion.

2. U.S. financial regulators jointly proposed that stablecoin issuers comply with customer identity verification rules. The SEC released its 2026 regulatory agenda to drive tokenized securities trading.

3. The TAC token crashed by 90% within 15 minutes, highlighting extreme market volatility. Polymarket’s 2026 World Cup market surpassed $4 billion in cumulative trading volume.

4. Coinbase received a UK license to provide investment services. Gemini launched a U.S. stock zero-commission trading service, integrating digital asset and stock trading.

AI and Technology

1. Some Microsoft applications are discontinuing OpenAI and Anthropic models and shifting to its own MAI model to reduce costs, potentially reshaping the industry landscape.

2. Meta launched a new AI image generation model, Muse Image, which is now available in the Meta AI app and Instagram Stories in the U.S.

3. China is considering restricting overseas access to its most advanced AI models and has held talks with companies including Alibaba and ByteDance.

4. Major tech firms collectively shut down their consumer-facing in-house agent features. The AI companion/emotional support segment was abandoned due to low retention and high compliance costs. Consumer-side large-model apps are returning to tool-like functionality.

5. Google announced it will hold the Pixel event on August 12, expected to unveil the Pixel 11 series of phones and Pixel Watch 5.

Geopolitics

1. The U.S. military launched large-scale strikes against Iran, with the scale reportedly four to five times that of the previous attack. Explosions were reported in multiple parts of Iran. WTI crude rose more than 3% at the open to $72.46.

2. The U.S. Treasury revoked general licenses for Iran’s oil sales, restoring sanctions. Brent crude then surged 6% to $76.3 per barrel.

3. Security threats in the Strait of Hormuz were upgraded to “severe.” Qatar condemned attacks on LNG carrier ships, while Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry condemned Iran’s attacks on oil tankers transiting.

4. French far-right leader Le Pen announced her presidential bid for 2027. The IOC temporarily lifted its ban on Russia’s Olympic Committee.

Equities and Commodities

1. All three major U.S. indexes closed lower: the Nasdaq fell 1.16%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.65%, Intel fell more than 9%, and memory chip stocks led the declines.

2. Samsung Electronics plunged 10% due to concerns about AI investments, shifting the tech sector’s rally from “broad-based gains” to performance differentiation.

3. Spot gold broke below $4,100 per ounce, down 1.59% on the day. Spot silver fell more than 4%. Precious metals and oil moved in opposite directions.

4. Amazon issued $24.25 billion in multi-tenor bonds to build AI infrastructure, attracting $62 billion in subscription demand.

Market Sentiment Summary: The Middle East conflict reignited and dominated market sentiment. The sharp rise in oil prices contrasted sharply with the steep selloff in tech stocks. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, faced unexpected pressure, indicating the market is shifting from “inflation trade” to “geopolitical risk pricing.” In crypto markets, the tug-of-war between institutional inflows and tighter regulation intensified short-term volatility.

📡 On-the-hour News Brief | 06:00-07:00

1. The U.S. military launches a series of strong strikes against Iran, with a scale four to five times larger than the previous attack. Explosions are reported from multiple locations across Iran. WTI crude oil opens up more than 3% to $72.46, while Brent crude rises by over 5%.

2. The U.S. revokes the exemption from sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iran condemns the move as a serious violation of the memorandum of understanding. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate sharply.

3. U.S. stock index futures for the three major indexes open slightly lower. Market sentiment remains cautious. Samsung Electronics plunges 10% due to concerns over AI investments, shifting tech-market momentum from “broad-based rallies” to performance differentiation.

4. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, while the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%. The market is focused on tomorrow’s FOMC meeting minutes.

5. S&P Dow Jones Indices lists Indonesia, Turkey, and Nigeria as countries whose market classification may be adjusted. If the issues are not resolved, the company will assess their classification.

6. Lithium battery material companies report strong first-half results in clusters. Yahua Group has the highest projected profit increase, up to 8-fold. Industry views suggest the high level of market demand may continue throughout the year.

7. Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, is hit by Russian ballistic missiles, with reports of two rounds of intense explosions. In Damascus, Syria, an explosion occurs, resulting in 1 death and 36 injuries. The incident reportedly takes place near the hotel where French President Macron is staying.

8. Share buybacks in Hong Kong stocks reached HK$94.4 billion in the first half of the year. Tencent Holdings leads. In the consumer sector, buyback amounts year-on-year increase by more than 100%.

📡 Hourly Update | 05:00-06:00

1. The U.S. military launches a strong strike against southern Iran. Explosions are reported across multiple Iranian locations, escalating tensions in the Middle East and potentially affecting global oil prices and risk sentiment.

2. Spot gold falls 1.47% to $4,104.15 per ounce. COMEX gold futures drop 1.23%, while silver drops more than 3%.

3. An AI model co-developed by SpaceX AI and Cursor is planned for release as early as Wednesday. It was previously postponed to improve the model’s efficiency.

4. Asset management giant Vanguard Group is hiring a head of digital assets to lead strategies for tokenization, stablecoins, and blockchain infrastructure.

5. Netflix, Disney, and YouTube reportedly intend to bid for the U.S. broadcast rights to the World Cup. The related media rights package could be worth up to $2 billion.

6. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemns the U.S. for revoking the oil-sanctions suspension measures, saying this violates the Islamabad Understanding Memorandum. Iran says it will take necessary steps.

7. The U.S. SEC releases its 2026 regulatory agenda. This month, a cryptocurrency regulatory meeting will be held to clarify the regulatory framework.

8. Amazon issues $24.25 billion in multi-tenor bonds with an interest rate range of 4.6%–6.25%.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 04:00-05:00

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower. The Nasdaq fell 1.16%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.65%, Intel dropped more than 9%, and storage-chip stocks such as SanDisk and Western Digital led the declines.

2. Iran’s top leader’s adviser said the U.S. will steer negotiations toward failure. The U.S. revoked Iran’s oil-sales sanctions exemptions. Qatar submitted a note to Iran regarding the attack on a transport ship, intensifying regional tensions.

3. In the week ending July 3, API crude oil inventories fell by 399,000 barrels, below expectations. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined more than expected.

4. SpaceXAI plans to launch a new model as early as Wednesday in collaboration with Cursor. Anthropic will expand Claude Cowork to mobile and web platforms.

5. U.S. Senator Warren questioned multiple tech giants, including Nvidia, Google, and SpaceX, regarding Pentagon AI contracts.

6. A 3.8-magnitude earthquake struck Gao County in Yibin, Sichuan, at a depth of 6 km.

7. ExxonMobil expects that second-quarter oil prices will add an incremental $3.7 billion in revenue, but Middle East events will cause losses of about $1.2 billion.

8. Apple pushed the fourth public beta versions of systems such as iOS 26.6. Google announced it will release the Pixel 11 series on August 12.