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Co přesně hnalo trh a proč stále platí graf mrtvého nebo bubliny?
Graf, který jste poskytli, dělá to, co vždy dělá; zhušťuje desetiletí pocitů do snadného vzoru. Na jedné straně lidé označují Bitcoin za bublinu, když roste, a za mrtvý, když klesá. Leden 2026 stačí na to, aby to vysvětlil.
Leden 2026 měl skutečné katalyzátory. Bitcoin se nikdy jen tak nestal příběhem. Reagoval na šok politiky, likviditu a rychlé přenastavení makro očekávání v různých třídách aktiv.

Nedávný Šok vzácných kovů znamená pro trhy, kryptoměny a expanze vize od Binance.

Úvod
Jak zlaté, tak stříbrné trhy procházejí jedním z nejvíce volatilních období v nedávné historii. Na začátku roku 2026 se vzácné kovy divoce houpaly, rušily obrovské tržní hodnoty v krátkých časových obdobích a zůstávaly na vzestupném trendu v delším časovém rámci. Takové neočekávané pohyby překvapily i staromódní investory a to přivedlo zpět dlouho vedenou debatu; jsou kovy stále bezpečné zajištění, nebo slábnou v neustále se zrychlujícím finančním prostředí?

Úvod
Celkově vysoká rally, při které Bitcoin přistoupil na 100 000 uprostřed ledna, největší kryptoměna podle tržní hodnoty klesla na méně než 70 000 na konci ledna 2026. Pád zrušil týdny zisků a vyvolal diskuse o tom, zda býčí trh skončil, nebo si dává pauzu. Pokles byl způsoben kombinací makroekonomických faktorů, likviditních šoků, psychologie investorů a geopolitických napětí. Článek analyzuje síly za pádem, reakci na trhu a hodnotí schopnost Bitcoinu udržet své vrcholy.

How this single print is going to count in a month of outflows and wavering feeling.
Following weeks of risk-off trading, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have just registered a sharp reversal with about 561.8 million net inflows on February 2, 2026. A one-day is not going to fix the market, but it will change the discussion. ETF flows are one of the most sparse (daily) transparent indicators of how big amounts of money are positioning.
What happened in the flows
The inflows were broad-based. Big spot Bitcoin ETFs were very well added, with the largest funds leading the pack, and other middle-sized products significantly adding. This was important since the inflow came right after January which was characterized by recurring outflow sessions and a defensive tone on the risk assets.
It also prevented the rumors that were circulating that big issuers were selling aggressively. Flow data is dichotomous: capital is in or out. In cases where the figures are present, speculation becomes irrelevant.
What is the reason this is the best signal since the beginning of January?
This, market observers said, was the highest single day ETF inflow since early January, coming at a time when Bitcoin was settling in between the high-70,000 range. As well as not paying attention to price, timing is a crucial factor. The flows of weak sentiment tend to represent either of two responses: institutions averaging exposures and retail being risk-averse, or allocators re-investing following a volatility-driven de-risking.
Neither of the two guarantees increase, yet both are quite contrasting to an un-demanded market.
The reason why January flows were weak.
The month of January was crashing in assets. There was volatility in crypto, equities, and precious metals all that was related to macro uncertainty and not crypto events. It is an important environment since ETFs are not the isolated crypto vehicles. They act as intermediary products between the conventional portfolios and the digital assets.
As causes of macro desks narrow exposure, ETF flows tend to reflect that change prior to spot narratives changing.
What inflows of ETFs can and can not tell you.
ETF flows are effective since they can be observed and compared on a daily basis. Nevertheless, they are also limited. The net redemptions and creations they gauge, not conviction. Rebalancing can move the inflow in one day. Flows do not also show holding duration, and are also capable of lagging price waiting until volatility compresses.
It should not be the interpretation that ETFs are coming back and the price needs to go up. The closer reading is more plain, the bid was there, and it was there in a time of reserved feeling.
Why the market responded despite Bitcoin being almost $78K.
The meaning is in the fact that the muted price action is combined with returning inflows. Out inflows that do not have an immediate breakout will tend to be controversial. Accumulation is perceived as an option by optimists during times of uncertainty. One day will not change a trend as argued by skeptics.
Both views are reasonable. The difficult reality is that the capital went into the commodities.
The greater change: subject matter narratives.
The ETF age is slowly displacing the rumour-filled accounts with quantifiable indicators. Rather than responding to commentary or speculation, market participants are able to monitor flows, holdings and exposure changes directly. This transition is healthy. It decreases noise and enhances responsibility in the manner the market conduct is talked about.
What to watch next
It is possible that the following sessions are more important than the headline day. This will be known by persistence of inflows, breadth across funds and sensitivity to macro stress whether this was in a one-off or the start of stabilization.
The main aspect is straightforward: the tune was set afresh this inflow day. It failed to validate a new bull phase, but validated that institutional access channels are still operational, receptive and applicable.
$BTC #USmarket #WhenWillBTCRebound