CryptoQuant Quicktake

BTC is currently trading around $66K–$68K, while ETH is around $2,100–$2,130. But behind the price action, the on-chain picture is becoming increasingly divergent:

1. BTC Retail Investor:

Data from CryptoQuant shows that Retail Investor Demand (transfer volume in the $0–$10K range) has been negative or very low over the past 30 days. While price has seen several strong rallies, buying pressure from retail investors has clearly weakened significantly.

In contrast, the Exchange Whale Ratio (the ratio of whale inflows to exchanges) is now at its highest level in many months → meaning whales are exerting much more control over capital flows. At this stage, the BTC market is being driven mainly by whales and institutions, with little momentum coming from the retail crowd.

2. ETH Accumulation

Wallet balances in the 10K–100K ETH range have risen sharply since late 2025.

The number of Accumulating Retail Addresses (wallets that are steadily accumulating) has also increased noticeably.

-> Even though ETH has gone through periods of sideways price action, long-term holders (both mid-tier holders and part of retail) are still continuing to accumulate and hold ETH. This is a positive on-chain divergence compared to BTC.

On-chain data is clearly reflecting a strong divergence:

BTC: Weak retail demand → whale-dominated activity.

ETH: Internal accumulation remains strong among long-term holders.

This is not an absolute bull or bear signal, but it does suggest that the crypto market is maturing — where the behavior of each investor group is becoming increasingly distinct.

Written by nghialee

Recently, Bitcoin has been recovering from a drop around the $68K level. At the same time, exchange reserves are increasing. In other words, inflows to Binance are rising. As you know, whales and institutional players primarily use Binance due to its high liquidity, which makes this chart particularly important.

An increase in exchange reserves indicates that investors are moving their coins from cold wallets to exchanges, effectively activating the option to sell. While this does not directly mean selling, the fact that reserves increase even during small price rises of 1–2K shows that sell-side liquidity is building up.

In a healthy uptrend, reserves typically decline as price rises. However, here we see the opposite. Supply is entering the market during the rally. It appears that whales may be using these relief rallies as opportunities to sell.

This structure has appeared several times on the chart. When it does, rising reserves have generally created downward pressure on price.

Under current conditions, it suggests that the recovery is being met with selling pressure and that the downtrend may continue.

Written by PelinayPA

There is one chart to particularly monitore for assessing the health of the market at a glance : the Bull Score Index.

It is an index that aggregates several key market metrics and converts them into a single score.

After a full market reset phase between December and February, during which the Bull Score fell to 0, market dynamics now appear to be improving.

Today, the index has returned to neutral territory with a score of 40. A score between 40 and 60 is generally considered neutral.

This suggests that, at current market valuations, more and more investors are starting to see value in gaining exposure again.

In other words, it may indicate that the end of the bear market is getting closer.

That said, this is not a tool designed to time the market.

However, historically, when the market entered a deep bear regime (score below 30), those periods often represented interesting entry opportunities.

We can therefore consider that we may now be entering a regime where implementing an exposure strategy start to makes sense, while still remaining cautious given the current tensions affecting global markets.

Written by Darkfost

[Summary]

Bitcoin's "Supply in Profit" has hit a multi-year floor, while "Supply in Loss" is spiking. This alignment has historically marked the terminal phase of market corrections.

🔍 On-chain Quick View

Realized Price Support: BTC is currently testing the $54.1k Realized Price (Yellow Line). Historically, this level serves as the ultimate macro support for bull cycles (2019, 2020, 2023).

Supply in Profit (56.9%): This metric has plummeted to the 50% threshold. Whenever profit levels drop this low, it signals that speculative froth is gone and "weak hands" have fully exited.

Supply in Loss (43%): Nearly half of the total supply is now "underwater." This level of widespread loss is a classic precursor to a macro bottom.

💡 The Bottom Line

We are witnessing a "Maximum Pain" scenario. Every time these three indicators aligned in this zone, a major trend reversal followed. The current setup confirms we are in a high-conviction value zone, not a momentum trap.

When 40%+ of the supply is in loss, the bottom is closer than it feels.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

The current situation in the share of profitable Bitcoin coins looks weak, but the market has not yet reached a full reset scenario. As of April 1, 2026, the metric has recovered to 66.4%, while the 30DMA stands at 69.1%. The key reference point here is the 365DMA, which remains at 87.5%. That is what fundamentally separates the current phase from the true structural reset seen in past cycles.

In previous cycles, it was the SMA365 that signaled a full reset in market structure. After peaking in the 96-97% range at the end of 2017, it declined steadily and fell to 63.8% by May 2019. That was a real reset: the average annual share of profitable coins compressed sharply, confirming a deep market cleansing after the end of the bull cycle.

The current picture is different. Despite the sharp decline in the metric itself and weakness in the 30DMA, the SMA365 remains abnormally high at around 87.5%. This suggests that the network’s average annual profit structure has not yet entered a full capitulation regime.

The contrast becomes even clearer when looking at the three drawdowns of this cycle. In September 2023 and September 2024, the market put pressure on short-term profit structure, but did not break the long-term average. The current 2026 drawdown looks deeper in the underlying metric: the low has already reached 55.7%, while the 30DMA fell to 66.7%. However, the SMA365 still remains far above the reset zone of the previous cycle.

The conclusion is straightforward: the market is going through a severe internal compression in profitability, but by the 365DMA standard, it is still far from a true structural reset. As long as the long-term average holds near 87.5%, this is better described as a prolonged cyclical correction with elevated two-way volatility, rather than a full bearish-phase reset.

Written by AxelAdlerJr

If you’ve been watching crypto-related stocks, CRCL likely caught your attention. The stock surged from around $50 to roughly $140 (+175%) in just a few weeks. Then suddenly, it dropped to $100 (-40%). During the sell-off, Circle saw its second-largest volume spike since July 2025.

What happend?

- CRCL sold off after a leaked CLARITY Act document suggested tighter limits on stablecoin reward programs. At the same time, Tether announced it will undergo a Big Four audit, strengthening its credibility and competitive positioning. While the news flow was chaotic, the move also has the characteristics of a classic shakeout after an overheated rally.

In summary 👇

- A leaked CLARITY Act draft introduced potential restrictions on stablecoin rewards (yield)

- Rewards are key for user adoption and distribution

- Tether’s audit progress weakens part of Circle’s “compliance premium”

- The stock was crowded on the long side after a strong run

This move is likely a mix of regulatory repricing, competitive pressure, and profit-taking after an outsized rally. This won’t change the long-term stablecoin thesis, but the playing field is shifting.

Written by maartunn

Exchange inflows have continued for six consecutive days and funding has turned positive, but the rebound in OI remains limited and realized losses persist, suggesting the market is in a mixed phase that requires supply absorption rather than a strong trend resumption.

Exchange netflow has stayed positive from Mar 27 to Apr 1, indicating an increase in short-term sell-side liquidity. However, after the spike on Mar 30, the scale of inflows has slowed, showing no clear sign of sharply increasing selling pressure.

Funding turned positive on Mar 29 and has remained so for four consecutive days, reflecting a recovery in long sentiment. Still, the magnitude is lower than January levels, suggesting this is more of an early-stage sentiment normalization than overheating.

Open Interest has rebounded recently but remains below mid-March highs, indicating leverage is rebuilding but not yet at crowded levels.

Realized PnL data shows recent losses, but on a 1-year cumulative basis it remains in positive territory, meaning the long-term profit regime has not yet been broken.

Overall, the short-term outlook favors a consolidation phase or a bounce followed by supply absorption, while a strong and immediate trend continuation signal is still lacking.

For tomorrow, key points to watch are whether exchange inflows continue, whether funding remains positive, whether OI continues to recover, and whether realized losses expand further.

Written by CoinNiel

Bitcoin zůstal pod krátkodobým tlakem ve druhé polovině března, přičemž cenová akce pokračovala ve formování struktury nižších maxim.

Na povrchu to stále odráží slabé tržní prostředí. Nicméně, data o derivátech na Binance začínají ukazovat jiný signál pod touto cenovou slabostí.

24hodinová změna v otevřeném zájmu o Bitcoin na Binance se v tomto období znatelně zlepšila.

Dne 18. března kleslo vyčtení na přibližně -401 milionů dolarů, což ukazuje na silné uzavření pozic a silný tlak na deleveraging.

Poplatky za transakce na Bitcoinu byly často popsány jako relativně drahé.

Během období přetížení sítě mohou některé transakce stát stovky dolarů.

Dnes se však děje opak. BTC právě dosáhl svého nejnižšího průměrného poplatku za transakci od roku 2017.

Průměr za rok nyní klesl pod $0.4, což znamená, že náklady na transakce na Bitcoinu jsou v současnosti velmi nízké.

To bylo řečeno, průměrný počet transakcí se nesnížil téměř tak moc. V průměru za rok je stále více než 3000 denních transakcí, což je daleko od nízkého.

Trh s Bitcoinem se v současnosti zdá slabý na povrchu, přičemž cena je omezena kolem 70,000 $ a postrádá jasný vzestupný moment. On-chain data, jako je Poměr velryb na burze, ukazují zvýšenou aktivitu velkých držitelů na burzách, což naznačuje krátkodobý prodejní tlak. To odpovídá probíhajícímu vzoru "trhu, který se snaží překonat vyšší hodnoty."

Nicméně hlubší pohled odhaluje jinou strukturu tvořící se pod povrchem. V Q1 2026 veřejné společnosti nashromáždily přibližně 62,000 BTC, podpořené filings SEC a dalšími primárními zveřejněními. Zajímavé je, že MicroStrategy nadále shromažďuje kapitál a převádí ho na Bitcoin, což představuje strukturální a trvalý zdroj poptávky.

March 25: -4,954 BTC net outflow. March 26: netflow flips positive. It stayed positive for five straight sessions, accelerating each day.

📊 The Sequence

+1,693 on the 26th. Then +213. +885. +1,319. Then +3,615 on March 30, a 174% jump from the day before. Five days of net deposits, each building on the last.

What stands out isn't just the direction. Going from +213 to +3,615 in four sessions means whatever drove the initial flip didn't fade. It grew.

On March 25, total inflows hit 34,032 BTC but outflows overwhelmed them. By March 30, inflows were 30,478 and this time outflows couldn't keep up. Same ballpark of coins coming in. Very different result going out.

🔍 Context

One day of positive netflow after a stretch of outflows is noise. Five with accelerating volume is a pattern.

The prior week saw sustained outflows. -8,428 on the 22nd. -7,810 on the 23rd. -1,917 on the 24th. -4,954 on the 25th. Over 23,000 BTC net leaving exchanges in four days. Then it reversed. Completely.

Large outflow sequence followed by sustained and growing inflows historically reads as repositioning. Coins pulled off, then systematically moved back in increasing size.

📈 The Honest Part

Positive netflow means more BTC entered exchanges than left. It doesn't mean those coins were sold. Inflows fund margin positions, collateral, OTC desks, and internal rebalancing. Not just spot selling.

But five consecutive sessions tipping the balance to positive net deposits is not nothing. Something shifted on March 26 and hasn't reversed through five sessions.

⏳ Resolution

Exchange reserves over the next 48-72 hours tell you if this is accumulation-on-exchange before distribution, or repositioning that resolves flat.

Current setup: five consecutive positive netflow days, accelerating from +213 to +3,615 BTC, following a 23,000 BTC outflow sequence.

What changed on March 26, and does it hold?

Written by RugaResearch

Despite particularly difficult market conditions for the altcoin sector, some notable movements are starting to appear on specific tokens, suggesting targeted activity from large players.

Tracking whale movements is a well-known strategy. Observing their flows can sometimes provide valuable insights into how their exposure is evolving, especially when they begin accumulating or withdrawing assets from exchanges.

To assess this activity and identify a potential accumulation phase among whales, it is important to monitor exchange outflows and the associated amounts.

Large withdrawals can indicate a transfer of funds to off-exchange storage, often interpreted as a reduction in selling pressure or a desire to hold assets for the medium term.

On this chart, we can see that whale activity appears to be intensifying on the LINK token, particularly when looking at the Top 10 outflow transactions. Two daily peaks stand out, with over 8,000 LINK withdrawn from Binance among the 10 largest transactions of the day.

Moreover, the monthly average of outflows from this Top 10 is also increasing. It has risen from around 2,000 LINK per day to nearly 2,600 LINK since mid-February, reflecting a gradual increase in the activity of the largest outgoing transactions.

In this context of generalized weakness across altcoins, this rise in whale withdrawals on LINK could indicate growing interest from certain large players, possibly in anticipation of future market moves. However, caution is advised, as other more pronounced accumulation episodes during this correction have not been able to alter the current trend.

These flows remain a signal worth monitoring, as their evolution could provide useful insights in the coming weeks.

Written by Darkfost

Tržní struktura XRP na Binance vykazuje výraznou divergenci mezi poptávkou na spotovém trhu a pozicováním na perpetuálním trhu.

Od 28. února do 31. března se Binance Spot CVD zlepšil z přibližně -250 milionů dolarů na +238 milionů dolarů, což představuje čistý posun přibližně 488 milionů dolarů.

To naznačuje, že zájem o nákup na spotové straně se v průběhu období výrazně posílil.

Současně zůstával obrázek derivátů opatrnější. Od 25. března do 31. března klesl Binance Perpetual CVD z přibližně -1,57 miliardy dolarů na -1,79 miliardy dolarů, což představuje další pokles o přibližně 220 milionů dolarů. To naznačuje, že agresivní činnost na perpetuálních trzích nadále tíhla na prodejní stranu, spíše než aby plně potvrdila zlepšení pozorované v tokách na spotovém trhu.

Data z Binance pro XRP naznačuje, že 30denní klouzavý průměr (MA30) je v současnosti kolem 1,40 USD, 90denní klouzavý průměr (MA90) je přibližně 1,64 USD a 200denní klouzavý průměr (MA200) činí 2,06 USD. Současná cena pod těmito třemi průměry představuje jasný medvědí signál, odrážející pokračování klesajícího trendu napříč krátkodobými, střednědobými a dlouhodobými časovými rámci. To obvykle naznačuje dominantní prodejní tlak a posiluje pravděpodobnost dalšího poklesu, pokud se cena nejprve nepodaří zotavit nad krátkodobým klouzavým průměrem.

Bitcoin is operating at US$ 67,937.53 (+0.89%), under a hidden technical divergence that redefines the "precarious balance" in USDT transactions. The USDT Flight Signal indicator at '0' — where '1' signals a flight to the dollar and '0' indicates migration into crypto — suggests, at first glance, a risk appetite; however, granular data from the TRON network — which holds between 42% and 50% of the entire global circulating supply of USDT, from which the indicator collects its metrics — reveal a strong liquidity protection.

CRITICAL POINT & VULNERABILITY

The risk resides in the Tether USD(TRC20): Exchange Netflow (Total) of -176,737,683 USDT. While the TRON network balance declined only US$ 60 million between 03/23 and 03/30, the negative flow of nearly US$ 177 million leaving exchanges for private wallets (only on 03/30) indicates that capital is not being used to buy the dip, but is being withdrawn for custody. With a volume of US$ 74.55 billion and USDT priced at US$ 0.99909, the "order book is dehydrated," making the US$ 65k support tactically vulnerable to a Flash Crash.

INTELLIGENCE INSIGHT

This analysis strengthens decision-making because it avoids the common error of blindly following an indicator. If we looked only at the '0' signal, the conclusion would be: "It's all good, we're going up!". The full view reveals: "There is no panic, but liquidity has vanished; careful." This is where real market intelligence resides: it is not about invalidating the tool, but about calibrating the lens to see what the '0' does not show: where the money went after leaving the vault.

CONCLUSION

The diagnosis suggests that capital migrated from the "display window" to defensive custody, raising the volatility risk for the 04/06 catalyst from moderate to HIGH. The distinction between "Sentiment" (Flight Signal) and "Execution Mechanics" (Netflow) is what protects the investor from liquidity traps, keeping the support dependent on institutional inflows via OTC.

Written by GugaOnChain

Binance pokračovala v zaznamenávání zvýšené aktivity výběru XRP po celý březen, což naznačuje, že nabídka na straně burzy zůstala pod tlakem místo aby se obnovila.

Data ukazují na několik význačných vrcholů v transakcích s výběrem na XRP Ledger na Binance během měsíce.

📈 včetně 11,882 dne 11. března.

📈 9,961 dne 15. března,

📈 10,146 dne 20. března.

📈 a 8,997 dne 24. března.

Opakující se povaha těchto čtení je důležitá, protože ukazuje, že činnost výběru nebyla omezena na jednu izolovanou událost.

Struktura nabídky XRP na Binance zůstává pod tlakem navzdory širšímu poklesu trhu.

Nejnovější data ukazují, že hodnota rezervy XRP na Binance klesla na přibližně 3,6 miliardy dolarů, zatímco kumulativní čisté toky zůstávají hluboce záporné na úrovni -11,4 miliardy dolarů.

To je důležité, protože to naznačuje, že Binance neviděla významné obnovení nabídky XRP na burze, i když cena výrazně oslabila od svých dřívějších maxim.

Jinými slovy, širší struktura toku stále ukazuje na trvalé čisté odlivy spíše než na reset nabídky.

Bitcoin data on Binance indicates a clear decline in risk-adjusted performance, coinciding with continued weakness in Bitcoin’s price during the same period.

At the beginning of March, the Sharpe Signal indicator moved into slightly positive territory, reaching levels between 0.05 and 0.14, while Bitcoin traded above $70,000. However, these levels were short-lived, as the indicator began to decline gradually over the following days, reflecting a deterioration in the risk-reward ratio.

By the last week of March, the indicator moved into negative territory, dropping to around -0.013, as price action remained weak. Although volatility was limited during this period, it was insufficient to support positive performance, leading to a continued decline in the Sharpe indicator.

It is also worth noting that the price followed a gradual downward trend throughout March, moving from levels above $70,000 to around $66,000 by the end of the month. This decline, coinciding with the drop in the Sharpe indicator, reflects a weak market environment, where Bitcoin failed to deliver sufficient returns relative to its risk level.

Overall, March data indicates that Bitcoin experienced a decline in performance, with the Sharpe indicator falling from modest positive levels into negative territory as the price dropped to $66,000. This reflects continued weak momentum and suggests that the market may remain under pressure in the near term.

Written by Arab Chain

Ethereum's Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is currently trending upward across all exchanges. This developing structure bears a notable resemblance to the pattern that formed immediately preceding Ethereum's sharp price surge in April–May of last year, suggesting a potential buildup of sustained spot demand at the market level

Written by crypto sunmoon

Pokud se podíváme na metriku Realized Cap - UTXO Age Bands (%), podíl držitelů, kteří drželi Bitcoin mezi 1 týdnem a 1 měsícem, nyní klesl na 3.98%. V minulých cyklech, když tento poměr klesl pod 4%, obvykle to korespondovalo s dnovými zónami.

Z pohledu on-chain se zdá, že Bitcoin v současnosti dostává relativně malou pozornost od investorů. I když podíl dlouhodobých držitelů přirozeně má tendenci růst, jak cyklus postupuje, současné čtení lze stále interpretovat jako významný signál, že trh se blíží dnu.