I'm not gonna lie - market dynamics are not looking that juicy anymore. But this always depends on your POV.
This indicator tracks how many Bitcoins are "in profit" based on on-chain acquisition cost (UTXO analysis).
November 2024: ~19.8M BTC in profit
February 2025: ~11.2M BTC in profit
Around 8 million BTC now underwater.
What does this tell us?
We're in a capitulation zone. Even long-term metrics are starting to show this data. Holders who bought high are selling at a loss.
Current zone: "Bottom Discovery"
Here's the thing:
If you have risk appetite, this is usually where the best risk/reward setups appear. The crypto market is still a big money pot - you just have to be efficient to grab some liquidity and profits.
Same zone as 2018, 2020, and 2022 before rallies.
BUT
Nothing stops us from capitulating for a longer period in this area. When you look at this indicator separately, we could stay in Bottom Discovery for weeks or even months before reversal.
2018? Stayed in this zone for 8 months.
2020? Quick visit.
2022? 6 months of grinding.
So while probability favors risk-takers here, timing is uncertain.
Not a guarantee. Probability.
The question is: do you have the stomach AND the patience for it?
Written by RugaResearch
