Bit_boy

Vývoj kvantového počítání by mohl zničit bitcoinovou síť
Prozkoumal jsem všechna data a naučil se o tom vše.
/➮ Nedávno nás BlackRock varoval před potenciálními riziky pro bitcoinovou síť
🕷 Vše díky rychlému pokroku v oblasti kvantového počítání.
🕷 Přidám jejich zprávu na konci - ale prozatím si rozložme, co to vlastně znamená.
/➮ Bezpečnost Bitcoinu závisí na kryptografických algoritmech, hlavně ECDSA
🕷 Chraňuje soukromé klíče a zajišťuje integritu transakcí

Svícnové vzory jsou mocným nástrojem v technické analýze, který nabízí pohled na sentiment trhu a potenciální pohyby cen. Díky rozpoznání a interpretaci těchto vzorců mohou obchodníci činit informovaná rozhodnutí a zvýšit své šance na úspěch. V tomto článku prozkoumáme 20 základních vzorů svíček a poskytneme komplexního průvodce, který vám pomůže vylepšit vaši obchodní strategii a potenciálně vydělat 1 000 $ měsíčně.
Pochopení vzorů svícnů
Než se ponoříte do vzorů, je nezbytné porozumět základům svíčkových grafů. Každá svíčka představuje konkrétní časový rámec, zobrazující otevřené, vysoké, nízké a uzavírací ceny. Tělo svíčky ukazuje pohyb ceny, zatímco knoty indikují vysoké a nízké ceny.

Key takeaways:
Bitcoin buyers still need roughly a 9% move higher to gain control ahead of Friday’s $10.5B options expiry.
Bitcoin continues to trade in step with the Nasdaq 100, meaning tech market sentiment remains a key driver of confidence.
Bitcoin climbed to an eight-day peak on Wednesday, carving out a clear double bottom around $62,500. Even with the rebound, price is still down 21% over the past month, leaving bulls at a disadvantage into the large monthly options expiry. A late surge could shift momentum, but the outcome remains uncertain.
Deribit remains the dominant leader with a 76% market share, totaling $4.5 billion in call (buy) options and $3.4 billion in put (sell) instruments. OKX follows in second place with $610 million in calls and $385 million in puts, representing 10% of the aggregate total. CME rounded out the top three with $255 million in calls and $287 million in puts, accounting for a 5% market share.
Put options are better positioned despite having less open interest
At first glance, the aggregate put options open interest appears 25% lower than equivalent call options. However, a more granular view reveals that neutral-to-bullish strategies were caught off guard by Bitcoin’s sharp decline below $75,000 in early February. 88% of call options on Deribit will expire worthless if the Bitcoin price remains below $70,000 on Friday.
Even after excluding call options aimed at $105,000 and above — often tied to multi-leg setups with cheaper premiums — just 37% of the remaining positions are placed below $75,000. This leaves the effective call open interest on Deribit near $780 million. Under these conditions, it raises the question of whether bearish traders may have pushed their bets too far.
$1.44 billion in put options open interest on Deribit targets Bitcoin prices below $60,000, although it is unlikely that bets at $40,000 and $45,000 effectively aimed for those specific levels. Calendar strategies and ratio spreads are typically associated with extreme price targets, as they do not require a price crash to achieve profitability.
Put options at $72,000 and above total $1.15 billion in open interest on Deribit, which is more than enough to offset existing call options. Although Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 was likely not tied to macroeconomic trend, the relevance of Nvidia’s (NVDA US) earnings outcome after the US market close on Wednesday should not be understated.
The success of the artificial intelligence sector, particularly the sustainable operational margins of the world’s largest companies, remains decisive for every risk market. History suggests that Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market seldom lasts long, but the fate of Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry could be decided by stock market performance.
The current 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index is clear evidence that the tech play is the leading driver of trader confidence, but as long as Bitcoin price remains below $75,000, the advantage continues to favor put options.
Below are three probable outcomes for Friday’s BTC options expiry at Deribit based on current price trends:
From $65,000 to $69,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $1.15 billion.From $69,001 to $71,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $845 million.From $71,001 to $74,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $470 million.
Ultimately, Bitcoin bulls need a 9% rally from the present $68,800 level to flip the tables on the February options expiry.
$BTC

When I look at Fogo, I don’t see another chain trying to be everything for everyone. I don’t get the feeling it’s chasing NFTs, gaming, social apps, and every new trend all at once. What I notice instead is how narrow the focus is.
And honestly, I kind of respect that.
To me, it feels like Fogo is saying, “Let’s just do one thing really well.” That one thing is markets.
I keep coming back to this idea that in trading environments, timing isn’t a nice-to-have. It’s the whole game. A few milliseconds can change whether you get filled or slipped, whether you’re safe or liquidated. So when a blockchain says it’s built for finance, I think less about TPS charts and more about consistency. Does it behave the same way when things get messy?
That’s where Fogo’s approach clicks for me. It doesn’t feel obsessed with expansion. It feels obsessed with execution.
I see the influence of Solana in the design philosophy, especially around performance, but it doesn’t feel like a copy. It feels more like taking those ideas and tightening them up. Bringing in a validator framework inspired by Firedancer tells me they care about reliability at the lowest level, not just flashy numbers on a dashboard.
Because I’ve learned the hard way that theoretical throughput doesn’t mean much when the network is stressed. Everything looks fast in perfect conditions. What matters is whether it still behaves cleanly when volume spikes and everyone rushes at once.
That’s usually where chains start acting weird.
Another thing I like is the decision to support the Solana Virtual Machine. From my perspective, that’s just practical. Developers don’t want to rewrite everything from scratch just to try a new chain. If I already have something that works, I want to plug it in and focus on improving it, not rebuilding the foundation.
So instead of reinventing the wheel, Fogo seems to be saying, “Bring what you’ve built. We’ll just make it run better.”
In DeFi especially, delays aren’t harmless. I’ve seen how small lags turn into real costs. Orders fill worse than expected. Slippage creeps in. Liquidations cascade because the system reacts too slowly. And sometimes it feels like the fastest actors extract value simply because the infrastructure can’t keep up.
That kind of friction adds up.
What I think Fogo is trying to do is shave down those tiny inefficiencies that most people ignore. Faster confirmations, tighter timing, more predictable behavior. Not just speed for the sake of marketing, but stability you can actually rely on.
And when execution gets cleaner, a lot of things suddenly become possible. Fully on-chain order books start to make sense. Liquidation systems can be more precise instead of chaotic. Auctions can price assets more fairly. Even MEV opportunities shrink because there’s less timing slack to exploit.
To me, that’s what “performance” really means — fewer weird edge cases.
While a lot of Layer-1s compete with big narratives or incentives, Fogo feels more like it’s competing on engineering. Less hype, more structure. It’s almost positioning itself like infrastructure for serious capital rather than a playground for experiments.
I find that mindset refreshing.
If DeFi actually wants to stand next to traditional finance someday, we can’t just rely on vibes and growth hacks. We need systems that behave predictably under pressure. Systems where timing is tight and execution feels deterministic.
That’s how I interpret Fogo. Not as another general-purpose chain, but as a bet that the future of DeFi will belong to whoever executes best, not whoever shouts the loudest.
@Fogo Official
$FOGO
#fogo

I have looked into a lot of so-called high-speed blockchains over the past few years, and honestly, most of them sound the same at first. Low fees, huge TPS numbers, near-instant finality — it all looks great on paper. But I’ve learned that those metrics only tell part of the story. What really matters is how a network behaves when real money and real demand hit it.
I always ask myself a simple question: what happens when things get crowded? Does the chain still feel smooth, or does it start slowing down right when it matters most?
That’s what made Fogo Official interesting to me.
From what I’ve seen, it’s not just trying to market speed. It’s built on the Solana Virtual Machine, which allows parallel execution, so transactions don’t just pile up in a single line. They can be processed at the same time when possible. To me, that’s less about flashy benchmarks and more about staying reliable under pressure.
Because real infrastructure isn’t tested during quiet days. It’s tested when volume spikes and everyone needs execution at once.
If you’re talking about cross-border settlements, on-chain order books, or tokenized real-world assets, you can’t afford random delays or unpredictable latency. Institutions don’t treat slowdowns as “normal.” They treat them as risk. And risk is the last thing serious capital wants.
That’s why I don’t see $FOGO as just another Layer 1 trying to compete on hype. I see it more as a network aiming for consistency and predictability, something that feels closer to professional trading infrastructure than an experimental chain.
For me, speed might grab attention, but reliability is what builds trust. And trust is what actually brings adoption.
If blockchain is going to support real economies and not just speculation, I think networks focused on steady performance, like Fogo, will matter a lot more than the ones just chasing big numbers.
That’s how I look at the bigger picture behind $FOGO .

@Fogo Official $FOGO
#fogo

Key takeaways:
Past cycles show Bitcoin tends to recover and outperform during trade tensions and liquidity support, even if fear dominates early on.
Steady mining activity and growing net long exposure on Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures indicate professional traders are quietly buying the pullback.
Bitcoin traders are growing uneasy after nearly three weeks below $75,000, with sentiment worsening following a drop to $64,200 as global equities weakened. Fresh uncertainty emerged after Donald Trump raised baseline import tariffs to 15%, pushing investors toward a more cautious, risk-off approach.
Still, similar macro stress in the past has often set the stage for Bitcoin strength. Miner stability remains intact, and institutional players appear to be using the dip to accumulate rather than exit.
While these events appear negative at first glance, Bitcoin has a history of outperforming during bearish macroeconomic shifts. More importantly, risk perception is gradually improving; Bitcoin miners have shown resilience, and professional traders used the recent dip to add exposure.
On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration signed an executive order imposing sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on nearly every trading partner. The situation escalated on April 9, 2025, as additional tariffs were applied to 75 countries, including a 34% rate for China. This move coincided with Bitcoin hitting a five-month low at $74,600, which was followed by a 38% rally over the next month.
Traders choose cash over Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty
The natural instinct for traders during periods of uncertainty is to seek shelter in cash and government bonds. Despite its unique benefits, Bitcoin is not yet considered a safe haven by most investors. However, once the market realizes that governments may be forced to inject liquidity to stimulate the economy, Bitcoin tends to outperform.
The Federal Reserve provides short-term cash loans against Treasury collateral to keep funding markets and settlements functioning smoothly. While this isn’t considered a direct liquidity injection, it often reflects temporary balance sheet stress. Still, extreme spikes in this metric — including the $100 billion surge on March 16, 2020 — have historically aligned with turning points in Bitcoin’s price.
Following the 2020 pandemic-driven crash, Bitcoin began a sustained recovery, climbing from $4,400 to $42,000 over the next several months. At the time, many doubted its long term outlook while it traded 55% below its previous $19,900 high between May and July, but that skepticism proved misplaced. A comparable setup could emerge in 2026 if liquidity pressures intensify again.
Nvidia (NVDA US) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the US stock market closes on Wednesday. Results from the chipmaker will likely set the investor mood, particularly as concerns regarding rising tech sector debt mount. Notably, shares of Coreweave (CRWV US) and Oracle (ORCL US) have already plunged over 50% from their previous all-time highs.
While conditions for companies supporting the artificial intelligence sector weaken, the exodus of investment from Bitcoin miners represents less of a risk now that the network hashrate has fully recovered from a 25% dip in January. More importantly, ASIC miners released in 2024 and early 2025 remain profitable even at an electricity cost of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour.
The de-escalation of "miner death spiral" fears may have helped instill bullishness among professional fund managers. Large speculators, including hedge funds, have shifted from a net short to a net long position on CME Bitcoin futures, according to a CFTC report published last week. Analyst Tom McClellan noted that two similar historical shifts preceded significant Bitcoin price bottoms.
While no single reversal indicator can confirm if the $60,200 level on Feb. 6 marked the cycle low, the combination of liquidity concerns, fears of excessive AI sector valuations, and resilience in the mining sector could push Bitcoin’s price back toward $75,000 in the near term.
$BTC

Hodně přemýšlím o tom, jak se kryptoměnový trh v průběhu let změnil. V raných dnech to vypadalo, že cokoliv s velkým nápadem může získat pozornost. Pak přišla fáze růstu, kdy ekosystémy a hypové cykly řídily vše. Teď to vypadá jinak. Prostor zraje a výkon už není jen bonus — je to základ.
To je sklo, kterými se dívám, když přemýšlím o Fogo.
Pro mě to nevypadá jako další řetězec, který se snaží být nejhlasitější nebo slibovat největší čísla. Spíše to vypadá jako tým tiše zaměřený na jednu věc: provedení. A upřímně, to zaměření dává dnes větší smysl než kdy jindy.

Bitcoin appears to have carved out a bottom after futures traders on Chicago Mercantile Exchange flipped net bullish back in April 2025. Now, a similar positioning shift is showing up again in 2026, increasing the chances of a near-term BTC rebound.
Key points:
• Smart money has scaled back bearish exposure over the past month.
• A comparable sentiment change previously led to a 70% rally in 2025 and a 190% surge in 2023.

Futures positioning and chart signals both suggest a possible move toward $85,000.
Data from the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders report shows non-commercial traders trimming their net stance to around -1,600 contracts, down from roughly +1,000 just a month ago, reflecting a clear shift in sentiment.

In practice, this means that large speculators, including hedge fund and similar financial institutions, have shifted from net short to long, with bulls outnumbering bears on the CME.
The rapid net-short unwind implies that “ smart money” added longs “with some urgency,” said analyst Tom McClellan, while pointing to two similar past swings that preceded Bitcoin price bottoms.
For instance, BTC’s price gained around 70% after a sharp dip in CME Bitcoin futures net shorts in April 2025. In 2023, BTC price rose by over 190% under similar futures market conditions.
As of February, the smart money swing is flashing once again, just as Bitcoin defends its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, the blue line), which has acted as a bear-market floor in most major drawdowns of the last decade.
On Sunday, BTC’s 200-week EMA was hovering around near $68,350.
The last time Bitcoin traded around this moving average during deep sell-offs (in 2015, 2018 and 2020), it eventually marked the end of the downtrend and the start of a new recovery phase.
Bitcoin’s weekly relatibe strength index RSI
remains in oversold territory, a sign that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
That further raises Bitcoin’s odds of recovering in the coming weeks. A decisive rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a run-up toward the 100-week EMA (the purple wave) at roughly $85,000 by April.
Bitcoin bulls aren’t out of the woods yet
McClellan cautioned that the smart money shift is “a condition, not a signal,” meaning Bitcoin could still slide from its current price levels before a durable low forms.
That may trigger the 2022 scenario, wherein BTC plunged by over 40% after breaking below its 200-week EMA despite similar oversold conditions.
A repeat of that 40% plunge in 2026 could result in BTC prices falling toward $40,000, or 60% from its record high of around $126,270.
Some analysts, including Kaiko, also see BTC potentially bottoming around $40,000–$50,000 based on its “ four year cycle” framework.
$BTC

Strávil jsem nějaký čas zkoumáním Fogo Network a čím více se na to dívám, tím více to vypadá, že se nesnaží být jen další „dělat všechno“ Layer-1. Vypadá to, že je úmyslně zaměřeno. Zatímco většina řetězců honí široké narativy kolem kompozability a obecných aplikací, Fogo se zdá být postaveno s jednou jasnou myšlenkou na mysli: rychlost je nejdůležitější, když se peníze pohybují v reálném čase.
Když přemýšlím o obchodních prostředích — perps, market making, arbitráž, strategie MEV — i malé zpoždění může znamenat ztrátu zisku. Takže myšlenka, že samotná latence může být alfa, dává smysl. To je místo, kde se Fogo Network odlišuje. Místo aby slibovali nejvyšší teoretické TPS, vypadá to, že se snaží poskytovat konzistentní, předvídatelné provádění pod tlakem. Pro vážné obchodníky je konzistence často důležitější než okázalé referenční hodnoty.