RecodeX

📡 On-the-hour update | 13:00-14:00

1. After months of silence, an encrypted whale account makes a comeback, investing $109.9 million to go long on ZEC and LIT—showing a return of large investors’ bullish sentiment.

2. Tencent reduces its stake in Kuaishou by about $1.5 billion, bringing its shareholding ratio down to 9.37%. At the same time, it subscribes to approximately 13.63 billion yuan (RMB) worth of equity in its AI video subsidiary, Keling AI.

3. The U.S. Congress missed the July 4 deadline for passing the CLARITY Act. Analysts believe the odds of the bill being passed by the Senate before August 7 are only 50%.

4. China achieves a major milestone for the first time: successful landing and first-stage recovery of a large rocket, marking a historic breakthrough in space technology.

5. Amazon again issues at least $25 billion in bonds for investments in data centers and AI infrastructure.

6. Top-tier private equity funds reported an average return of 2.18% in the first half of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Energy storage concept stocks saw choppy weakness in the afternoon, with Hai Bosi Chuang (HaiBoSiChuang) down more than 10%.

7. Japanese investors are moving capital back into domestic markets; this trend may affect global markets. Strategists expect the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in July to be low.

8. Options on BTC/ETH worth about $1.907 billion expire today, which could intensify market volatility. After breaking above $64,000, Bitcoin stabilizes in the short term, but the downward trend remains unchanged.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 12:00-13:00

1. Chinese AI startup Manus plans to raise financing at a valuation of $2 billion. Tencent intends to participate, potentially becoming the largest shareholder, while discussions are also underway to lift Meta’s $2 billion acquisition.

2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. both saw net outflows, ending a streak of net inflows. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 22, indicating extreme fear.

3. Asian stock markets rose. Chip stocks rebounded on expectations of increased AI spending. South Korea’s KOSPI extended its gains to 5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.69%.

4. Russia plans to implement full monitoring of cryptocurrency trading. Trades above 60,000 rubles must be reported with detailed information, strengthening regulatory oversight.

5. The National Energy Administration issued an action plan to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in the energy sector. It will work to include nuclear power in the green power and green certificate framework, while strongly developing new energy storage and new-energy heavy trucks.

6. MiniMax’s founder waived compensation and donated 5% of shares to incentivize the team and support open source. The company also completed additional financing of HK$16 billion to further boost AI R&D.

7. The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is viewed as a tactical pause. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily resumed, while the risk of full-scale war has risen and the outlook for peace remains unclear.

8. SK hynix listed on Nasdaq at $149 per share, setting a record for the largest-scale U.S. listing by a foreign company. Bitget will list its token SKHY.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 11:00-12:00

1. Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF saw net outflows of $95.3 million. Fidelity’s FBTC led with net outflows of $63.25 million, indicating continued capital withdrawal from the crypto market.

2. Meta’s latest legal AI model ranked first across three major benchmark tests, outperforming Grok 4.5. Meanwhile, Meta denied claims of excessive AI compute and emphasized that renting compute resources is more valuable.

3. Crypto VC Paradigm has completed the fundraising for its $1.2 billion fourth fund, focusing on artificial intelligence and robotics. MiniMax also completed a $2.0 billion round of financing, with the CEO taking no salary and donating 5% of shares.

4. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported security backdoor risks in Claude Code. Domestic AI programming tools from companies like Alibaba and Tencent benefit from a clear logic of advantage, and third-quarter order visibility is mainly driven by internal stock migration.

5. Hackers attempted to plant a backdoor in the Injective npm package to steal wallet keys. Users should immediately revoke permissions. This event is highly significant for developers working on Injective wallet workflows.

6. A-share market opened with mixed performance: the Shanghai Composite rose 0.76%, with nearly 4,500 stocks advancing, and trading volume increased to 2.17 trillion yuan. Non-ferrous metals and humanoid-robot sectors were active, while liquor stocks saw a choppy rebound.

7. Applications for the first batch of actively managed prediction market ETFs have been submitted, covering event betting such as politics, weather, and sports. This is pushing crypto-like betting into a regulated framework; Polymarket has already submitted an application for margin trading in the U.S.

8. Sugon (Institute of Computing Technology) released China’s first fully domestic AI supercluster with 100,000 cards—Sugon 8000—connecting to the national supercomputing internet, marking the entry of AI infrastructure into the 100,000-card era.

📡 Hourly News Update | 10:00-11:00

1. Bitcoin breaks through the $64,000 mark; the 24-hour gain is 3.69%. However, CryptoQuant says the rebound should be seen as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal.

2. A new type of “illusion invasion” attack uses AI-generated misinformation to form a botnet, posing a serious threat to the security of AI applications.

3. The Ethereum Foundation dissolves its core developer coordination and scholarship support team to carry out internal restructuring. Meanwhile, researchers propose native UTXO support to reduce permanent state by 99.8%.

4. The U.S. Supreme Court expands a ruling granting Trump greater control over federal agencies, which may affect the SEC and CFTC’s rulemaking for cryptocurrency.

5. Asian stock markets surge strongly: the Hang Seng Tech Index rises by more than 2%. Investors’ concerns about the Middle East attack event ease.

6. OpenAI’s No. 2 executive, Fidji Simo, resigns for health reasons after serving less than a year. At the same time, the release of the GPT-5.6 version reshapes the competitive landscape.

7. Sony Bank is approved to issue a dollar-backed stablecoin in 2027. SWIFT rolls out a blockchain-based shared ledger for a pilot program involving tokenized cross-border payments among 17 banks.

8. Japan encourages GPIF to increase domestic investments. The yen rises on expectations for pension policy, while the USD/KRW exchange rate is believed to have a pricing error.

📡 Hourly News Briefing | 09:00-10:00

1. OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, leading the Claude Fable model by 13.1 points in Agent evaluations, and becoming Microsoft Copilot 365’s preferred model.

2. A certain giant whale accumulated 34,600 ETH and 250 WBTC within 10 days, while selling off ETH worth $13.69 million—drawing market attention to its highly leveraged strategy.

3. SK hynix completed a $26.5 billion ADR offering in the U.S., setting a record for the largest IPO by a foreign enterprise in the U.S.; the share price rose slightly.

4. South Korea’s KOSPI index surged more than 4% intraday; Samsung Electronics rose more than 5%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2% to 69,123.63 points.

5. Privacy-focused public chain MOBLUS STRIP completes a $50 million strategic financing round to accelerate the development of zero-knowledge proof infrastructure.

6. Japan’s wholesale inflation hits a three-year high; rising fuel costs and yen depreciation are the main drivers. The USD/JPY falls 0.2% to 162.053.

7. Musk publicly admits that his earlier criticisms of Anthropic were wrong, praising Anthropic for becoming a leader in the AI field.

8. Hong Kong stocks open higher: the Hang Seng Index rises 0.76%, the Tech Index gains 1.25%, and southbound net buying reaches HK$2.0 billion.

📡 Hourly News Update | 08:00-09:00

1. A vacancy among U.S. CFTC commissioners has stalled the progress of the Clarity Act, with the White House and Democrats trading blame, affecting the timeline for more transparent digital asset regulation.

2. OpenAI officially launched the GPT-5.6 series models. Performance has improved significantly, and it has also rolled out ChatGPT Work in Australia to enable cross-application automated office work.

3. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year over year in June, exceeding the expected 6.8%. The Nikkei 225 opened up 1.16%, while South Korea’s KOSPI opened higher by 3.6%.

4. U.S. officials said technical talks between the U.S. and Iran are still ongoing, which could affect global energy markets and geopolitical stability. Trump’s renewed strikes against Iran have prompted concerns within the Republican Party.

5. Tencent has systematically reduced its strategic holdings in JD.com, Meituan, and other companies over the past four years, and has instead made large-scale investments in large-model firms such as Keling/可灵 AI, DeepSeek, and MiniMax—signaling a switch of capital.

6. New Hampshire rejected a $100 million issuance of municipal bonds backed by Bitcoin due to regulatory and market challenges. In response, the U.S. Marshal Service chose Coinbase Prime to custody federally seized cryptocurrencies.

7. Goldman Sachs prohibits employees from trading in financial and political prediction markets, citing concerns about insider-trading risks, while also tightening employee trading rules.

8. Musk admitted he previously underestimated the AI company Anthropic, saying it has become an industry leader. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has joined his long-term interest trust.

📡 8-hour recap | July 10, 00:00-08:00

In the past 8 hours, market drivers centered on breakthroughs in AI technology, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a split in sentiment in the crypto market. OpenAI released the GPT-5.6 series models and AI agent tools, boosting tech stocks; clashes between Iran and U.S. forces intensified—oil prices plunged, yet safe-haven sentiment rose; after Bitcoin broke through $63,000, it faced pressure—long-term holders saw losses hitting a record, with bullish signals and risks coexisting.

Macroeconomy

1. Fed Chair Powell announced the establishment of five external working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the monetary policy framework. Members include well-known economists such as Mankiw and Anderson, emphasizing the maintenance of price stability and employment.

2. The U.S. 30-year Treasury auction saw the stop-out yield rise to 5.058%, reflecting intensifying market concerns about long-term rates and inflation; the assets under management of money market funds hit a record high of $7.953 trillion.

3. European Central Bank President Lagarde urged EU governments to develop the economy and establish European assets. UK Central Bank Chief Economist Peir said that it would still be necessary to raise rates in the coming year.

4. In the first nine months of the U.S. fiscal year 2026, the federal deficit reached $1.4 trillion, with the fiscal imbalance continuing; India exempted import tariffs on key smartphone components, reducing costs for Apple’s supply chain.

Crypto market

1. Bitcoin broke through $63,000, but it faces risks tied to options expiration and ETF outflows. Analysts warned that a drop to $53,000 cannot be ruled out.

2. Crypto miner MARA acquired a 2000MW computing park in Texas for as much as $600 million, with the stock jumping by about 15%, lifting crypto-related shares.

3. New Hampshire’s administrative commission rejected a $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond proposal, which would have become the world’s first of its kind.

4. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network in cryptocurrencies totaled $172 million; short-side losses far exceeded longs. Losses for Bitcoin long-term holders reached $280 million in a single day, the highest in 3.5 years.

5. In the first half of 2026, crypto projects reportedly lost about $972 million due to hacker attacks, setting a historic high. Exchange AscendEX stopped operations on July 1, making user withdrawals difficult.

AI technology

1. OpenAI officially released the GPT-5.6 series models (Sol, Terra, Luna) and the ChatGPT Work desktop app. It set new benchmarks in agent coding and the field of biology, with pricing as low as one-sixteenth of that of competing products.

2. Google launched AlphaEvolve, an AI code-optimization agent, and opened it to all cloud customers, while requiring that all AI-generated advertisements starting in 2026 must be labeled.

3. SK hynix raised $26.5 billion via a U.S. IPO, setting a record for the largest U.S.-listed scale by a foreign company, and the offering was oversubscribed by more than 7 times. Micron Technology raised its planned U.S. investment to $250 billion.

4. Open-source AI platform Ollama completed a $65 million Series B financing; former Fed Chair Bernanke joined Anthropic’s regulatory body LTBT.

5. Apple delayed the rollout of Siri AI features and reached a collective settlement by agreeing to pay $250 million. Meta announced it will invest more than $9.1 billion to build AI data centers in Canada.

Geopolitics

1. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it destroyed multiple U.S. military bases with ballistic missiles; the U.S. Embassy in Jordan was reportedly closed urgently. Explosions were reported across parts of southern Iran, but officials denied that it was an attack.

2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke by phone with U.S. officials to discuss U.S. actions in the Gulf region and Turkish President Erdoğan’s tough remarks.

3. Volkswagen Group plans layoffs of up to 120,000 jobs worldwide; some German factories face closure, and unions and the government oppose the plan.

4. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to expand the President’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty for crypto-asset regulation.

5. The Czech President warned that Ukraine has two months to restart peace talks; otherwise, Russia may order full mobilization and escalation after parliamentary elections.

Market sentiment and key focus

Overall, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Technological breakthroughs and capital inflows into the AI sector are the biggest highlights, but the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, a collapse in oil prices, and internal crypto-market risks (hacker attacks, exchange shutdowns) restrained risk appetite. Investors are focusing on the Fed’s policy review outcome, Bitcoin’s key price levels ($62,000 support), and progress on AI regulation.

📡 Hourly News | 07:00-08:00

1. OpenAI releases the GPT-5.6 series of models; performance comprehensively surpasses Claude. Prices are as low as one-sixteenth of competing products, and it also rolls out the upgraded ChatGPT Work.

2. SK hynix raises $26.5 billion through a U.S. IPO—setting a record for the largest listing by a foreign company in the United States—and the offering is oversubscribed by more than 7 times.

3. New Hampshire’s Administrative Committee rejects the proposal for the United States’ first bitcoin-backed municipal bond, marking the first major test for bitcoin in the public financing arena.

4. Trump refuses disaster-relief assistance to four blue states. Previously, he approved requests for aid to six red states. The White House denies that the decision was politicized.

5. In the first half of 2026, cryptocurrency projects suffer losses of about $972 million due to hacker attacks, setting a historic high and showing that security vulnerabilities remain persistent.

6. Meta announces an investment of more than $9.1 billion to build its first AI data center in Canada—also its largest data center outside the United States.

7. In the first nine months of the U.S. fiscal year 2026, the federal deficit reaches $1.4 trillion, highlighting continued fiscal imbalance.

8. China is considering limiting foreign access to its AI models, which could raise costs for U.S. companies that rely on low-cost Chinese AI.

📡 On-the-hour Bulletin | 06:00-07:00

1. OpenAI has launched a ChatGPT Work AI agent feature powered by GPT-5.6, aiming to deeply integrate into enterprise work flows to enable office automation.

2. Market expectations indicate a 74.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July, but the probability of a rate hike rises to 51.1% in September, which may affect risk assets.

3. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire crypto market totaled $172 million; short sellers suffered losses far greater than long positions, indicating a bullish trend.

4. After the U.S. approved Nvidia H200 exports to China, China’s policy has loosened. A plan is set to allow some companies to purchase this AI chip.

5. Assets under management in U.S. money market funds rose to $7.953 trillion, a new all-time high, showing strong demand from investors for low-risk cash.

6. The Czech president warned Ukraine that it has two months to restart peace talks, otherwise Russia may order a full mobilization and escalation of the war after parliamentary elections.

7. SK Hynix’s ADR listed in the U.S. has raised $26.5 billion, priced at $149 per share, and is set to begin trading soon.

8. Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke has joined Anthropic’s oversight body LTBT, tasked with ensuring its AI development aligns with humanity’s long-term interests.

📡 Hourly Update | 05:00-06:00

1. OpenAI announced it is shutting down the ChatGPT Atlas browser and instead launching a new desktop app with integrated GPT-5.6 agent features.

2. Google requires that all ads using AI-generated content be labeled “AI-generated,” and bans deepfakes involving real human likenesses.

3. AscendEX users face withdrawal difficulties; hot-wallet USDT and ETH have been depleted. The platform says it will handle matters manually, but does not guarantee the timing or the amounts.

4. Ethereum EOA transaction volume rose 40%, but the median transfer amount fell 77%, indicating network activity without sufficient capital inflows.

5. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.23%, at $4,132.6 per ounce, while silver futures rose 3.1%.

6. U.S. existing home sales declined. Home prices hit a record high, and the House of Representatives will vote next week on a bill to permanently implement daylight saving time.

7. Goldman Sachs updated its internal trading policy, banning employees from betting on prediction markets related to elections, macroeconomic data, and more.

8. Research shows that one quarter of long-form social media posts online are entirely generated by AI, and nearly half of posts on LinkedIn and X involve AI-assisted content.

📡 Hourly Update | 04:00-05:00

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher across the board. The Dow rose 0.27%, the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.81%. Chip stocks performed strongly: Micron Technology jumped more than 4%, and Meta rose more than 4%.

2. OpenAI has introduced GPT-5.6 as Microsoft 365 Copilot’s preferred model, and launched ChatGPT work agents that can carry out complex tasks across multiple applications.

3. In the first half of 2026, U.S. venture capital reached $412.7 billion—30% higher than all of 2025. Funding for AI startups accounted for 86%; Ollama raised $65 million in a Series B round.

4. Crypto exchange AscendEX will stop operating on July 1, 2026, with no guarantees provided regarding the return of users’ funds; Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer has left the company.

5. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone with Donald Trump to discuss U.S. actions in the Gulf region and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hardline remarks.

6. Micron Technology announced that its U.S. investment plans will be expanded to more than $250 billion by 2035, driven by rising memory demand in the AI era.

7. The Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo usage rose to $5.772 billion. Last week, foreign central banks reduced holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $28.605 billion.

8. South Korea’s AI chip industry has created new power players, but it has also sparked social questions about who might be left behind. Meanwhile, Texas data center expansion has caused a surge in fossil-fuel power generation.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 03:00-04:00

1. The Fed Chair, Powell, announces the establishment of five external working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the monetary policy framework. Members include renowned economists and entrepreneurs such as Mankiw and Anderson, who pledge to steadfastly maintain price stability and employment.

2. Reports of explosions come from multiple locations in Iran, but the authorities deny that it was an attack, saying it was caused by the activation of air defense systems. U.S. officials state that the U.S. military is not involved. Trump speaks with Netanyahu to coordinate the situation in Iran.

3. Volkswagen announces it will streamline its vehicle lineup by up to 50%, cutting product complexity by 75%. The goal is to become the most competitive automaker by 2030, focusing on core business.

4. Goldman Sachs bans employees from participating in trading in financial and political prediction markets, allowing only sports and entertainment betting. Violators may be fired or have their earnings confiscated.

5. International oil prices fell by about 2% on the 9th. New York crude closed at $72.08 per barrel, while Brent crude closed at $76.30. Economic concerns outweighed supply risks.

6. The assets under management of U.S. money market funds rose to a record high of $7.953 trillion. The U.S. dollar index edged down, and yields on two-year U.S. Treasuries fell by more than 5 basis points.

7. On the first day of the Labour Party leadership election in the UK, Andy Burnham received nominations from 322 MPs. He is expected to take office as prime minister on July 20, advocating for reducing the concentration of power and reshaping the economy.

8. Bitcoin long-term holders’ daily losses reached $280 million, a 3.5-year high. Solana’s trading volume fell to a 2026 low. Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains lackluster.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 02:00-03:00

1. OpenAI releases an AI agent tool that can automate workflows, along with the GPT-5.6 series of models. It is also accused by the New York Times and other media outlets of lying to the court in copyright lawsuits, and calls are made for sanctions.

2. Reports of multiple explosions in places such as Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. US officials say they are unrelated to the US military; Oman and Iran stress resolving regional issues peacefully through diplomatic channels.

3. ECB President Lagarde calls on EU governments to take action to develop the economy and emphasizes the need to establish a European asset. Bank of England Chief Economist Pill says that it will still be necessary to raise interest rates over the coming year.

4. Musk admits he previously underestimated Anthropic, saying it is currently a leader in the AI industry, and pledges not to take restrictive measures that would harm its development.

5. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says it is reasonable to explore an AI cloud business, denies any oversupply of computing power, and for the first time launches paid AI models.

6. At the US 30-year Treasury auction, the winning yield rises to 5.058%, reflecting growing market concerns about long-term interest rates and inflation. WTI crude oil futures settle down 1.96% at $72.08 per barrel.

7. Goldman Sachs equities trading business is expected to set a record for the third consecutive quarter. Revenue is projected to exceed $5 billion, and the firm also prohibits employees from participating in trading in prediction markets.

8. The Banque de France raises its forecast for second-quarter economic growth to 0.2%, citing improved activity across industries in June. The New Zealand dollar rises to a two-week high on stronger manufacturing data.

📡 Hourly Update | 01:00-02:00

1. OpenAI officially releases the GPT-5.6 series models (Sol, Terra, Luna) and the ChatGPT Work desktop app, setting new benchmarks in proxy coding and the field of biology, and introduces cross-app document creation functionality.

2. Several Federal Reserve officials deliver remarks: Logan suggests that a voluntary central clearing mechanism can improve the efficiency of open-market operations; Perly says the ample-reserves framework can handle shocks, and expects increased Treasury-bill issuance to tighten liquidity in the money markets.

3. Bitcoin miners shifting toward AI businesses face investor scrutiny over insider selling. After selling for two consecutive weeks, BlackRock buys $250 million worth of Bitcoin; Brazil’s exchange B3 launches BTC, ETH, and SOL futures options.

4. US-listed crypto-related stocks broadly surge, with MARA Holdings up more than 15%. LME base metals close mostly higher, while Brent crude falls 3% intraday to $75.66 per barrel.

5. Negotiations between the US and Lebanon-Irrael enter the framework implementation stage, with the first pilot region expected to start within days. Ukraine provides the US with drones for testing, and allies will discuss air-defense cooperation in France.

6. US companies turn to Chinese AI models due to cost advantages, raising alarms among members of Congress and national security officials. Meta will build a 1GW data center in Canada, expected to create around 3,000 construction jobs.

7. PepsiCo says high oil prices are cutting US consumers’ food spending, with second-quarter revenue growth driven mainly by international business. Block reaches a $45 million settlement with 46 states due to inadequate fraud protection on Cash App.

8. UK defense tech company Kraken completes a $175 million Series B funding round, valuing it at $1 billion and making it the latest unicorn. Franklin Templeton believes the bullish logic for AI infrastructure will continue through 2027.

📡 On-the-hour update | 00:00-01:00

1. Bitcoin breaks through $63,000, but faces risks from options expiration and potential ETF outflows. Analysts warn that a drop to $53,000 cannot be ruled out.

2. International oil prices fall sharply. WTI crude drops more than 4% intraday to $71.54 per barrel, Brent falls more than 2%, and U.S. natural gas futures drop more than 5%.

3. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claims it used ballistic missiles to destroy multiple U.S. military bases. The U.S. Embassy in Jordan urgently closes, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions heightens market safe-haven sentiment.

4. Google launches AlphaEvolve, an AI code-optimization agent, and opens it to all cloud customers. It also requires that, starting in 2026, all AI-generated ads must be labeled.

5. Apple delays the rollout of its Siri AI features, agreeing to pay $250 million to settle a class-action lawsuit. Eligible users can receive compensation ranging from $25 to $95.

6. Bitcoin miner MARA’s stock surges about 15% after acquiring a 2GW power infrastructure in Texas to expand its AI business, lifting crypto-related stocks.

7. When the European Central Bank raised rates in June, it took lessons from 2011—avoiding committing in advance to future actions and emphasizing that decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on data.

8. India waives import tariffs on key components for smartphone manufacturing. This could further reduce Apple’s supply-chain costs in the country, driving it to expand iPhone production.

📡 Daily News Roundup | July 09

Over the past 24 hours, global markets were violently shaken by extreme divergence between “geopolitical panic” and “tech exuberance.” The situation in the Middle East escalated rapidly: the U.S. launched a large-scale strike on Iran, the shipping of the Strait of Hormuz was nearly at a standstill, international oil prices surged by more than 8%, Brent crude broke above $80, and safe-haven demand pushed gold to a record high. Meanwhile, the AI and semiconductor sectors saw a cluster of positive catalysts. OpenAI, Meta, ByteDance, and others announced new models or chip plans one after another, helping tech stocks rebound strongly, with the STAR Market 50 index jumping more than 8% in a single day. Cryptocurrency markets faced pressure: Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark before rebounding. Sentiment was extremely bearish, but there were clear signs that institutions were buying the dip. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate a shift toward a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 51.5%, further exacerbating market volatility.

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📊 Global Macro

1. Rapid escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. launched large-scale airstrikes on Iran for two consecutive nights, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards retaliated by firing missiles at U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly halted, and the EU advised airlines to avoid the relevant airspace. If Iran faces further attacks, it threatens to close the strait, posing a serious risk of major disruption to global energy supplies.
2. International oil prices surge: WTI crude futures rose by more than 8% to $76 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 8.62% to $80.55 per barrel. Shanghai crude’s main contract rose 8%. Russia’s diesel export ban is set to remain in effect until July 31, and U.S. diesel futures’ intraday gains widened to 13%.
3. Fed meeting minutes signal a hawkish turn: The June meeting minutes showed growing disagreements among officials regarding inflation and rate outlooks. Some officials supported further rate hikes. AI investment was listed for the first time as one of the three major inflation risks alongside the Middle East war and tariffs. The September rate-hike probability rose to 51.5%.
4. Diverging U.S. economic data: In May, consumer credit unexpectedly fell by $180 million—the first decline since 2024 and far below expectations. Initial jobless claims of 215,000 were below forecasts, and the labor market remains strong. June existing home sales missed expectations, but the median home price hit a new high of $440,600.
5. China’s central bank maintains a loose policy tone: In its second-quarter policy meetings, the central bank emphasized continuing to implement moderately accommodative monetary policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments, maintaining ample liquidity, strengthening rate guidance, and stabilizing the exchange rate. China’s June CPI rose 1.0% year over year, and PPI rose 4.1% year over year—both in line with expectations.
6. Korea’s stock market enters a technical bear market: The KOSPI index has fallen more than 20% from its June high. Samsung and SK Hynix fell by more than 5% each due to concerns about chip trading, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. Foreign investors sold heavily, while retail investors stepped in as buyers, revealing underlying structural risks.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin rebounds after pressure: Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $60,000 support level, then rebounded to trade around the $63,000 mark. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire market exceeded $387 million, mainly driven by long positions. The Crypto Fear Index fell to 21, indicating investors are extremely pessimistic, but analysts believe BTC has entered a bottoming-out window.
2. Institutions buy the dip: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $143 million in a single day. BlackRock transferred about 951.5 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime. Public companies bought 110,000 Bitcoins in Q2, up 1.8 times quarter over quarter, signaling a trend of institutions treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
3. SWIFT launches blockchain pilot: SWIFT rolled out a blockchain ledger in collaboration with 17 banks to pilot tokenized cross-border payments—an important step toward integrating traditional finance with tokenized assets. Tether issued an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron network, and the total TRC20-USDT issuance surpassed 90.2 billion, setting another record.
4. Regulatory developments: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to expand the President’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty to regulation of crypto assets and RWA tokenization. The CFTC chair explicitly stated the U.S. will never launch a central bank digital currency and urged Congress to pass a crypto market structure bill.
5. Active crypto venture capital: Paradigm completed a $1.2 billion fundraise, expanding its investment scope from cryptocurrencies into artificial intelligence and robotics. Bitwise filed a Solana ETF application. Sony received conditional approval from the U.S. OCC and plans to launch a stablecoin trust bank in 2027.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. OpenAI rolls out in-depth releases: For ChatGPT users worldwide, OpenAI introduced a new generation of voice model, GPT-Live, with GPT-5.5 used in the backend—supporting real-time conversations and interruption. At the same time, it significantly accelerated the GPT-6 release plan to within this month and received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense.
2. Meta’s in-house chips and data centers: Meta plans to mass-produce its in-house AI chip “Iris” in September, aiming to double computing power to 14 gigawatts by 2027. It also announced a $10 billion investment to build what will be the largest data center overseas in Canada, and plans to sell AI compute capacity and provide access to models.
3. Chinese AI companies accelerate catch-up: MiniMax released a 27-trillion-parameter model, M3 Pro. Its performance exceeds overseas closed-source models, and it plans to open-source it as early as Q3. ByteDance released the Seedream 5.0 Pro image model, performing ahead in 17 test scenarios. Companies such as DeepSeek and Zhipu began developing their own AI chips, marking that competition in AI is shifting from the model layer to full-stack warfare.
4. NVIDIA updates: NVIDIA introduced the Vera CPU for AI agent workloads. The stock price rose more than 3.65%, but its market cap has evaporated by $1 trillion in less than two months, and its forward P/E multiple fell to 18x. France’s anti-monopoly investigation into NVIDIA is nearing its end, with the highest possible fine up to 10% of global annual revenue.
5. AI chip financing boom: AI chip startup Positron is in talks for about $750 million in fundraising, with a valuation potentially as high as $5 billion. Micron Technology plans to invest more than $25

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📡 8-Hour Recap | July 09, 16:00–24:00

Over the past 8 hours, the market saw sharp swings as multiple geopolitical shocks intertwined with tech tailwinds: tensions in the Middle East escalated abruptly after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases, restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. After oil prices plunged once, they later stabilized. Meanwhile, the AI and semiconductor sectors received a flurry of positive catalysts—Meta’s internally developed chip entered mass production, Micron unveiled a massive investment plan, and ByteDance released a new model—driving a strong rebound in tech stocks. Bitcoin traded in a range around the $63,000 level, and the crypto market showed signs of bottoming.

Macroeconomics

1. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 215,000, below expectations, and the labor market remains strong; June existing home sales at an annualized 4.09 million were below expectations, but the median home price reached a new high of $440,600.

2. The ECB’s June meeting minutes hinted that the policy stance may be loosened; UK assets face heightened volatility risk due to fiscal uncertainty.

3. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan and Beyond” carbon peak action plan, targeting non-fossil energy consumption to reach 25% by 2030, and reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% versus 2025.

4. The Ministry of Finance will issue the 5th and 6th series of treasury savings bonds in 2026, with 3-year yields at 1.63% and 5-year at 1.70%, and a total issuance of 60 billion yuan.

Crypto Market

1. After Bitcoin broke above $63,000, it has traded sideways while facing key resistance levels. Centralized exchange BTC and ETH balances have fallen to multi-year lows, suggesting investors are shifting toward self-custody.

2. SWIFT launched a blockchain ledger and partnered with 17 banks to pilot tokenized cross-border payments, marking an important step toward integrating traditional finance with asset tokenization.

3. Tether minted an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron network. The TRC20-USDT issued supply surpassed 90.2 billion, reaching a new high again. Meanwhile, BlackRock transferred about 951.5 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime.

4. The realized losses on Bitcoin reached the highest level since December 2022, according to Glassnode, which indicates the market is in the later stage of bottoming. Listed companies bought 110,000 bitcoins in Q2, up 1.8x quarter-on-quarter.

5. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to expand the president’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty to the regulation of cryptocurrencies and RWA tokenization.

AI and Technology

1. OpenAI rolled out an upgraded ChatGPT voice mode, adding real-time conversation and visual response capabilities. ByteDance released Seedream 5.0 Pro image model, performing ahead in 17 testing scenarios.

2. Meta plans to begin mass production of its in-house AI chip “Iris” in September, targeting a doubling of compute capacity to 14 gigawatts by 2027. Micron Technology plans to invest more than $250 billion in the U.S. by 2035, betting on demand for AI memory chips.

3. France’s antitrust investigation into Nvidia is nearing its end; the worst-case scenario could involve a global annual revenue fine of up to 10%. Bank of America reiterated a bullish view on Nvidia, believing the market is overconcerned about HBM costs and ASIC competition.

4. Huawei confirmed the Mate 90 series will be released in September, featuring HarmonyOS 7 and a new Kirin chip, with a 53.5% increase in transistor density.

5. Citigroup predicts a surge in memory prices will cause personal computer shipments to fall by 15% in 2026, and smartphone shipments to decline by 12%.

Geopolitics

1. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched ultra-heavy missiles from Iran toward U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf, escalating Middle East tensions. Iran announced it would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to about 50% of pre-war levels.

2. The U.S. launched attacks on Iran’s key trade routes, intensifying geopolitical tensions; the European Commission warned that heightened geopolitical stress may affect global financial stability.

3. Israel’s defense minister said Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while the Middle East conflict continues to escalate and push up oil prices.

Stock Markets and Financing

1. All three A-share major indexes rebounded collectively: the STAR Market 50 Index surged 8.41%, and the semiconductor industry chain exploded higher. The U.S. Nasdaq Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.32%; Micron jumped more than 6%, with AI chip stocks leading the rally.

2. Luxshare Precision’s Hong Kong stock debut saw a break below the issue price; it once fell by more than 7% intraday. Long鑫 Storage (CXMT) launched a STAR Market IPO, planning to raise at least 29.5 billion yuan, which would make it the second-largest IPO on the STAR Market.

3. Venture capital firm Paradigm completed a $1.2 billion fundraise, expanding its investment focus from crypto to artificial intelligence and robotics. European startups raised $24 billion in Q2, up 66% year-on-year.

4. Volkswagen’s electrification transition hit setbacks: global profits plunged 54%. It plans to cut 100,000 jobs and shut down factories in Germany; Porsche’s sales in the first half fell 16% year-on-year.

Market sentiment summary: The market is sharply bifurcating between “geopolitical panic” and “tech euphoria.” The Middle East conflict is boosting risk-avoidance sentiment, but dense positive catalysts in AI and semiconductors (Meta chips, Micron investment, SWIFT blockchain pilot) are driving a strong tech rebound. Bitcoin is building momentum around the $63,000 level, resulting in a cautious optimistic setup where “risk appetite is recovering, but tail risks have not been eliminated.”

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 23:00-00:00

1. The U.S. Supreme Court rules to expand the president’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty to the regulation of cryptocurrencies and RWA tokenization.

2. Open-source AI platform Ollama completes a $65 million Series B round of funding, aiming to improve the usability of open-source models.

3. MARA plans to acquire a 2,000MW data center campus in Texas for up to $600 million, highlighting the trend toward the convergence of digital infrastructure and energy assets.

4. Market FUD sentiment toward SOL reaches its highest point of the year; trading volume drops to a low, and analysis suggests this is typically a bullish signal.

5. Micron Technology increases its U.S. investment plan to $250 billion, betting on strong demand for AI-driven memory/storage chips.

6. Zhang Xiaolong, founder of PuKou (Pencil), steps down from all positions due to personal matters. Vice President Sheng Haiyan takes over, marking the company’s shift from founder-led to professional-manager governance.

7. New Hampshire’s Executive Council rejects a $100 million proposal to support municipal bonds with Bitcoin, which would have become the world’s first of its kind.

8. Volkswagen Group of Germany plans to lay off up to 120,000 jobs globally; some German plants may face closure, while unions and the government oppose the move.

📡 Hourly News Update | 22:00-23:00

1. The Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.5%. Tech shares rebounded to offset Middle East tensions, but both Nvidia and Google shares fell by more than 2%.

2. Meta first launched its paid AI developer model, Muse Spark 1.1, priced at 25% of OpenAI and Anthropic models. The stock drop narrowed to 0.5%.

3. European startups raised $24 billion in Q2, up 66% year over year—its strongest quarter in four years. Zhaoxin Tech completed approximately RMB 7.6 billion in funding, with capital from the Alibaba ecosystem also participating.

4. US June existing home sales at an annualized pace of 4.09 million missed expectations. However, the median home price hit a record high of $440,600; initial jobless claims stayed near historic lows.

5. US listed storage chip stocks surged. Micron Technology and Western Digital jumped by more than 8%, while Dell’s share price spiked by over 5% in the short term.

6. In crypto, Robinhood listed the SENT token; Kraken listed SN51; and Sony Bank was approved to establish a stablecoin trust bank in the US.

7. In the US, legislation across multiple states tightened regulation on insurers using AI for health insurance claims, banning AI from fully replacing human determinations.

8. Hong Kong AI stocks diverged. MiniMax fell nearly 18% on its first day after the unlock, while Zhipu rose 13% after its unlock; liquidity and valuation premiums were repriced.

📡 Hourly News Broadcast | 21:00-22:00

1. Meta plans to ramp up production of its in-house AI chip Iris in September, targeting a doubling of compute power to 14 gigawatts by 2027. Micron will invest $3 billion to strengthen its chip supply chain, as the AI arms race heats up.

2. PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD officially launches on the Polygon network, leveraging low fees and high speed to drive payment and DeFi applications.

3. U.S. stocks open slightly higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises 4.32%, Micron Technology jumps more than 6%, and Applied Materials and Lam Research both gain over 10%. AI chip stocks lead the way.

4. Iran-related conflict has caused high market uncertainty. An EU commissioner warns that geopolitical tensions could affect global financial stability. Iran says that the Strait of Hormuz’ capacity has been restored to 50% of pre-war levels.

5. Micron Technology plans to invest more than $250 billion in the U.S. by 2035, raising its share of DRAM production capacity to 40%. The first wafer fab is expected to produce its first wafers in mid-2027.

6. A listed company purchased 110,000 bitcoins in Q2, a 1.8x increase quarter-over-quarter. Institutional interest continues to rise; Strategy has launched a native credit model for Bitcoin.

7. AI application company YanYu Technology completes a B+ round financing of nearly $300 million, while ZhiPing completes nearly RMB 5 billion in funding. Funding concentration among leading companies in the embodied intelligence track is increasing.

8. OpenAI releases the GPT-Live-1 voice model that can listen and speak in real time, and globally replaces ChatGPT’s advanced voice mode.