RecodeX

📡 On-the-hour Update | 11:00-12:00

1. In Japan, actual household spending in May has fallen year-on-year for the 6th consecutive month. Spending on transportation and communications dropped sharply by 15.8% year-on-year. While spending on food categories has turned to growth, residents’ cost-saving tendency is clearly evident.

2. Tencent has released the Hunyuan Hy3 large model, featuring a 295B-parameter MoE architecture. The Agent task resolution rate reaches 90%, with performance surpassing DeepSeek V4 Pro and Qwen 3.7 Max.

3. In South Korea, the KOSPI index’s intraday decline widened to 7%. Foreign investors net-sold about $1.493 billion. Leveraged long ETF products tied to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix plunged by more than 20% and 19%, respectively.

4. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz insists on fully implementing the plan for the disarmament of Hamas. Hamas has announced that it will hand over administrative authority over the Gaza Strip, while both sides differ in their wording regarding weapon handover.

5. At the “Hong Kong Fixed Income and Money Summit,” Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that it supports the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in increasing the funding arrangement scale for RMB business to 500 billion yuan, and will firmly safeguard Hong Kong’s financial stability.

6. Trading value on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan. Compared with this time the previous day, trading volume shrank by more than 540 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4,000 points, while the semiconductor sector strengthened against the trend.

7. In 2025, Shanghai’s above-scale AI enterprises’ industrial scale exceeded 637 billion yuan, up 39.5% year-on-year. The 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference will be held from July 17 to 20, inviting representatives from dozens of countries and international organizations.

8. Microsoft announced layoffs of 4,800 people, accounting for 2.1% of its global workforce. The cuts mainly affect sales and the Xbox division, while the company also increases AI investment and compresses costs.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 10:00-11:00

1. Bitcoin’s price breaks through $64,000. Bulls ignore the impact of Strategy’s sale of 216 million USD worth of BTC; a well-known trader predicts it could rise as high as $65,600.

2. A mega whale holding 22,567 ETH sold 7,347 ETH, incurring a loss of $4.04 million, showing that large holders are panicking and offloading.

3. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index rose by more than 2%, Meituan surged by more than 7%, and Tencent reduced its stake in Kuaishou, causing Kuaishou’s share price to drop by over 6%.

4. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg urged member states to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Iran fired missiles at merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

5. The trading volume on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed RMB 1 trillion. Semiconductor silicon-wafer concept stocks continue to strengthen; Yanyun Silicon (Institute/Research Silico n) hit the daily limit of 20cm.

6. China added 67 unicorn companies in the first half of the year, reaching the highest level in nearly five years. Artificial intelligence and robotics are leading a new investment cycle.

7. Samsung Electronics’ profits jumped sharply, but its stock price crashed, dragging down South Korea’s KOSPI index by 6%. The market is concerned about the sustainability of its AI business.

8. Shanghai officially announced that the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference will debut new products for the first time, including Huawei Atlas 950 and the Stepwise Agent operating system, among others.

📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 09:00-10:00

1. Samsung Electronics’ Q2 profit surged 1,810% year-on-year. Boosted by strong demand from AI and data centers for memory chips, its quarterly profit hit a new global high among technology companies.

2. Embodied AI firm Moqi Intelligent secured over RMB 1 billion in an angel round. Co-invested by Alibaba and Tencent, its valuation topped RMB 7 billion—setting a record for the sector.

3. Bitcoin price broke through the $64,000 mark against the odds. A well-known investor “Maji” added to long positions, with weekly gains exceeding $400,000.

4. Hedge funds’ bearish sentiment toward the Japanese yen rose to the highest level since 2007. The yen fell to its lowest point since 1986, and the market is watching the likelihood of intervention by the Japanese government.

5. Hong Kong stocks’ internet-tech sector surged intraday. Meituan rose 8.5%, and market confidence has picked up. Meanwhile, the FTSE China A50 index futures opened down 0.20%.

6. Sony announced that starting in 2028, new PlayStation games will stop being released on physical optical discs and will fully switch to digital editions, sparking strong backlash from players.

7. Morgan Stanley expects that, driven by lower China-made production costs, the global robotaxi market will reach $1 trillion by 2040. Companies such as Baidu and XPeng are expected to become regional leaders.

8. The U.S. BEA revised its method for calculating PCE. Core inflation may be lowered by 0.2 percentage points as a result, affecting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

📡 On-the-hour update | 08:00-09:00

1. Samsung Electronics’ Q2 operating profit surged over 18-fold year over year, but the market response was muted. The stock opened down 3%, dragging the South Korean KOSPI index down by more than 4%.

2. A draft report from the U.S. Treasury warns that risks in the AI market are comparable to the dot-com bubble. However, a Treasury spokesperson dismissed the conclusion, saying AI will usher the U.S. economy into a “golden era.”

3. China’s June logistics/warehousing index rose to 50.2%, returning to an expansionary range. Improvements in warehousing demand were driven by new infrastructure project starts and a rebound in manufacturing.

4. Iran fired at least two missiles into the Strait of Hormuz at commercial vessels, hitting two ships but with no reported casualties. Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.

5. Tencent reduced its stake in Kuaishou Class B shares through off-exchange block trades, no longer remaining the company’s primary shareholder. New Industry plans to repurchase company shares worth 100 million to 200 million yuan.

6. In May, Japan’s nominal wages grew 3.2% year over year for the fourth consecutive month with growth of at least 3%, strengthening the stance of the Bank of Japan on rate hikes.

7. Guangxi upgraded its flood response and issued a red flood alert: 55 rivers are above warning levels. In Nanning, due to a reservoir overtopping and a breach, 48,000 people have been evacuated.

8. Li Bojie, a former Huawei “genius” youth, publicly criticized DeepSeek’s interview process as slow and said interviewers’ attitudes were poor, questioning whether it copied others.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 07:00-08:00

1. Samsung Electronics’ operating profit in the second quarter surged 19-fold year over year to KRW 89.4 trillion, exceeding expectations. Driven by AI demand, memory chip prices rose, but the stock fell 4.5% pre-market.

2. Japan’s real wages increased for the fifth consecutive month in May, but nominal wage growth slowed to 3.2%. Rising inflation dampened gains, narrowing real wage growth to 1.4%.

3. Memory chip prices have skyrocketed: DDR5 memory kits are up over 300%, and hard drive prices have followed suit. Most PC-building customers are adopting a wait-and-see stance.

4. Nvidia denied rumors that next-generation AI server architecture would be delayed due to manufacturing difficulties. It said its product roadmap remains unchanged, but Asian PCB makers’ stock prices have already taken a sharp hit.

5. Zelensky said Trump has changed his view on the war and that the outcome of the war with Russia will depend on the “air battle.”

6. Our country’s carbon-14 nuclear battery has completed key breakthroughs in full-chain independent development, enabling a systematic upgrade featuring miniaturization, high power, low cost, and high integration.

7. Walmart and Sam’s Club announced price cuts on thousands of popular summer items across the United States, as Trump tries to take credit.

8. After a liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman was struck in the engine room by an unidentified flying object, a fire broke out, highlighting that shipping risks near the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying.

📡 8-hour recap | July 07, 00:00-08:00

In the past 8 hours, the market saw sharp fluctuations driven by a mix of factors: after Bitcoin briefly broke above $64,000, it slid back on large-scale selling; U.S. stocks saw all three major indexes finish higher and hit record highs; dealmaking momentum in the AI sector remains strong, but regulatory signals are tightening. Geopolitical tensions have persisted, U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations have shifted toward caution, and bullish dollar sentiment has reached a new high in nearly a decade.

Macroeconomics

1. Fed Governor Waller warned that a hawkish forward guidance could become an obstacle to policy, suggesting rate cuts should rely on data. Market odds of no rate cut this year are up to 77%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.3%.

2. Confidence among U.S. consumers in employment prospects hit a five-year low; the share saying jobs are hard to find rose to 22.5%. The U.S. Dollar Index inched up to 100.853, with bullish dollar sentiment at the highest level since 2015.

3. Hedge funds’ bearish positioning toward the Japanese yen reached the highest level since 2007. The yen slid to an all-time low of 1986, breaking below 162 yen per $1, raising expectations of official Japanese intervention.

4. ICE Arabica coffee futures surged more than 9% to $3.2850 per pound, the biggest single-day gain since July 2000. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.23% to $4,176.3 per ounce.

Crypto market

1. Bitcoin briefly broke above $64,000, setting a recent high, but Strategy’s sale of 3,588 BTC (worth $216 million) pushed the market down 4%. Analysts warned that a similar pattern to 2022 might return in summer. In the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire market totaled $314 million.

2. BlackRock withdrew 7,546 ETH from Coinbase Prime (worth about $13.2 million), indicating that institutional interest in Ethereum continues to grow. After Ethereum held the $1,500 area, it attempted to rebound.

3. Trump hinted that Bitcoin could be added to accounts, calling himself a loyal fan of cryptocurrencies. The White House said it is committed to building a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but the plan has been hindered by departmental ownership and legal barriers.

4. Attackers reportedly stole about $20 million worth of SOL tokens from the BonkDAO treasury via a governance attack. They are coordinating with exchanges and Solana to respond; Ripple received full MiCA CASP authorization from Luxembourg’s CSSF.

5. CertiK’s report shows that in 1H 2024, the number of crypto hacker attacks fell 47% year over year, but losses surged 59% quarter over quarter in Q2. The UNDP announced that a Stellar blockchain payments pilot succeeded in five countries.

AI and Technology

1. Tencent released its Hunyuan Hy3 model (295B parameters). It claims it can generate a 3D parkour mini-game in five minutes, using an Apache 2.0 license. GLM 5.2 became the first open-source model to compete with Opus and GPT on agent tasks, priced at only 15–20% of the latter.

2. Shengshu Technology completed a $500 million strategic financing round, setting the largest single funding record in China’s general world model sector. Tripo AI completed a $150 million A3 round, and enthusiasm for investment in AI infrastructure continues.

3. Microsoft announced layoffs of 4,800 people, mainly affecting the Xbox game business team, but stressed that the layoffs are not directly caused by AI; it only noted that AI is changing how work is done. Illinois signed a bill requiring leading AI companies to conduct annual third-party security audits.

4. China plans to strengthen regulation of AI chatbots that simulate human emotions. ByteDance and Alibaba have already begun pausing related AI companion features. In the U.S., the cyber defense agency CISA is using Anthropic’s AI tools to audit government code.

5. Samsung Electronics’ operating profit in Q2 surged about 18 times year over year to 89.4 trillion won, driven by strong demand for AI-powered memory chips. Memory chip prices have continued to climb; in Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei, a 32GB DDR5 memory kit has risen to nearly RMB 4,000.

Geopolitics and Security

1. Russia launched ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, killing at least 12 people, marking the second major attack in under a week. Russia’s deputy foreign minister said Russia will stay in contact with the United States on the Ukraine issue.

2. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg urged member states to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. France withdrew all diplomatic personnel stationed in Burkina Faso; Burkina Faso had previously announced it was severing diplomatic relations with France.

3. Apple’s Indian supplier, Tata Electronics, was hacked, resulting in data leakage of more than 200,000 files (630GB). Experts in quantum security risks warned that the situation has entered a critical stage.

4. A breach occurred at the Yunbiao Reservoir in Yunzhou, Hengxi County, Guangxi, due to heavy rainfall. More than a thousand villagers were trapped on the mountainside, lacking food and medicine. In Weihai, Shandong, a factory fire broke out, killing 4 people.

Market sentiment and key focus

Overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Record highs in U.S. stocks coexist with volatility in the crypto market. Investors are focused on signals that the Fed may pivot policy, progress on AI regulation, and the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts. The dollar’s strength and Japan’s yen depreciation have become the core contradiction in FX markets.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 06:00-07:00

1. Samsung Electronics’ operating profit in Q2 surged year-on-year by about 18 times to 89.4 trillion KRW, while revenue reached 171 trillion KRW—both exceeding market expectations. Fueled by AI-driven demand, memory chip sales are strong.

2. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%. The market is focused on this week’s Fed meeting minutes and policy signals from the newly appointed chair, Waller.

3. Key shareholders’ stock reduction channels in China’s A-share market show a pattern of “one decline and two increases.” The share of agreement transfers dropped sharply to 24.45%, while bulk trading and block-to-investor/price inquiry transfer channels have risen rapidly.

4. Memory chip prices continue to soar. In Shenzhen Huaqiangbei, a 32GB DDR5 memory kit has risen to nearly RMB 4,000, up over 300%. Consumers are generally waiting on the sidelines.

5. The industrialization of glass substrate is accelerating. Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Sumitomo Chemical have formed a joint venture. BOE also made its debut in glass-to-panel packaging substrate business, but yield remains the key to mass production.

6. The central bank conducted a trillion-yuan buyout-style reverse repo operation, with net injections of RMB 49.5 billion. Experts say efforts to support liquidity have continued to increase.

7. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher together. The Dow first broke above 53,000 points, hitting a record high. A rebound in tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq up more than 1%.

8. Trump said he had a “very good call” with Putin and called FIFA’s president, asking for a review of the red card given to U.S. forward Baragon (Barbagon).

📡 Hourly News | 05:00-06:00

1. The U.S. Dollar Index ticked up to 100.853. COMEX gold futures rose 1.23% to $4,176.3 per ounce, while silver futures climbed 2.33%.

2. “Tesla’s rival” Rivian’s preliminary Q2 revenue estimate is $1.55B–$1.65B, topping expectations, but it plans to issue 75 million shares of stock; shares fell more than 6% after hours.

3. Bitcoin broke above $64,000, up 1.01% during the day. The funding rate rose to 9%, and bullish sentiment is strong.

4. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia will stay in contact with the United States on the issue of Ukraine. Trump said resolving the conflict would be “much faster than people think.”

5. GLM 5.2 became the first open-source model to compete with Opus and GPT on agent tasks, priced at only 15–20% of the latter.

6. The U.S. earnings season is about to begin. Investors are optimistic about results, but wary of oil-price shocks; the Fed has limited room to cut rates in the near term.

7. France has withdrawn all diplomatic personnel from Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso had previously announced a break in diplomatic relations with France.

8. Spain beat Portugal 1–0 to advance to the World Cup quarterfinals. Six straight shutouts set a World Cup record.

📡 Hourly Report | 04:00-05:00

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher. The Nasdaq rose 1.12%. Most tech stocks gained, with Tesla and AMD up more than 6%. China concept stocks—represented by the Golden Dragon Index—closed up 1.8%, while iQIYI rose more than 6%.

2. Hedge funds’ short-JPY sentiment hit the highest level since 2007. The yen slid to a 1986 low, breaking below 162 yen per U.S. dollar, sparking expectations of official Japanese intervention.

3. The U.S. cybersecurity defense agency CISA is using Anthropic’s AI tools to audit government code. It has found multiple vulnerabilities, and the Trump administration is strengthening direct oversight of AI systems.

4. Traders’ overall positioning sentiment toward the U.S. dollar reached the most bullish level since 2015. CFTC data shows dollar-bullish sentiment hit a nearly decade high.

5. Honeywell agreed to acquire Element Materials for $14.5 billion, building an advanced materials company valued at about $29 billion, targeting demand from the AI supply chain.

6. The Office of Legal Counsel at the U.S. Department of Justice is working with the Treasury and the Department of Commerce to plan the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but it has encountered legal and jurisdictional obstacles.

7. Vista Equity and Quinti Capital jointly made a takeover offer for French ad-tech company Criteo, with a premium of over 50%.

8. Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced that Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has become the preferred supplier for a 12-submarine construction project.

📡 On-the-Hour Updates | 03:00-04:00

1. U.S. consumers’ confidence in employment prospects fell to a five-year low, with the share of people who believe jobs are hard to find rising to 22.5%.

2. Russia launched a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, killing at least 12 people, marking the second major attack in less than a week.

3. Hedge funds’ bearishness toward the Japanese yen hit the highest level since 2007, with U.S. dollar long positions reaching the highest level since 2015.

4. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that speculators reduced their net long position in WTI crude oil while increasing their net long positions in COMEX gold and silver.

5. Microsoft announced layoffs of 4,800 people in its Xbox division and is shifting its business focus toward artificial intelligence.

6. An attacker used governance attacks to steal about $20 million worth of SOL tokens from the BonkDAO treasury and is coordinating with exchanges and Solana to respond.

7. The White House said the U.S. government is committed to building strategic Bitcoin reserves and cryptocurrency reserves, but departmental attribution and legal obstacles have stalled the plan.

8. A French June heatwave caused mass deaths among flocks, with the high temperatures significantly impacting poultry.

📡 On-the-Hour Update | 02:00-03:00

1. Trump’s intervention in the decision to ban a player from the World Cup has sparked anger across global football, and he has admitted that he asked FIFA to re-examine the red-card incident involving U.S. player Barogun.

2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pleaded with Trump not to provide Turkey with F-35 fighter jets, saying it would disrupt the regional balance of power.

3. A breach occurred at the Yunbiao Reservoir in Hengzhou, Guangxi due to heavy rainfall. More than a thousand villagers are trapped on the hillside, lacking food and medicine, and official rescue has not yet arrived.

4. Microsoft is cutting 4,800 jobs, focusing on adjustments to the Xbox division, with an emphasis on AI and improving hardware and gaming business performance.

5. China plans to strengthen regulation of AI chatbots that simulate human emotions. ByteDance and Alibaba have already begun pausing related AI companion functions.

6. American Bitcoin, supported by Trump, announced that its treasury holds more than 8,000 bitcoins. SpaceX will join the Nasdaq-100 index tomorrow.

7. Oracle’s stock price has fallen by more than 40% this month. The Bank for International Settlements warned that AI could disrupt the economy, and multiple financial institutions have expressed concerns about an AI bubble.

8. The European Central Bank’s payment system experienced two outages within a week, causing delays in euro and Danish krone settlements, but service was restored within less than one hour each time.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 01:00-02:00

1. Tencent releases the 295B-parameter model Hy3, claiming it competes with GLM-5.1 and 5.2, and adopts the Apache 2.0 license.

2. Novartis invests $1.1 billion as an upfront payment and $400 million in milestone payments to acquire a UK cancer drug startup, gaining a platform for a new antibody-drug conjugate.

3. Tencent reduces its holdings of Kuaishou shares via block trades, seeking to raise up to $1.55 billion in cash.

4. Tesla’s stock price rises today, with the market watching for its upcoming earnings report and progress in fully autonomous driving technology.

5. The UNDP announces that its Stellar blockchain payments pilot has been successful in five countries, expanding its use for humanitarian and development programs.

6. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting are set to be released; chip stocks try to rebound, and the Dow Jones is nearing 53,000 points.

7. Apple pushes the third developer beta of iOS 27 and iPadOS 27, bringing new features such as Siri AI and performance improvements.

8. Sky Television in the UK acquires the television business of Independent Television for £1.6 billion. After the merger, Comcast will control the UK’s largest commercial broadcaster reaching 21 million households.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 00:00-01:00

1. Shengshu Technology completes a strategic financing round of $500 million, setting the record for the largest single investment in China in the field of general-purpose world models, highlighting the current investment fervor in AI infrastructure.

2. In the past hour, liquidations across the crypto market exceeded $70 million, including $45.65 million in Bitcoin liquidations, indicating rising market risk.

3. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the Fed will not deliberately maintain low interest rates; policy will be determined by economic data. This suggests future rate cuts may be more cautious, with market expectations this year seeing the probability of no rate cut rise to 77%.

4. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures surged by more than 9% to $3.2850 per pound, the largest single-day gain since July 2000.

5. Microsoft announced layoffs of 4,800 employees, mainly affecting its gaming business division. It emphasized that the layoffs were not directly caused by AI, noting instead that AI is changing the way people work.

6. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged member countries to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 as geopolitical tensions persist.

7. The price of humanoid robots has fallen below 10,000 yuan, but the embodied intelligence industry faces a second-half challenge from “being able to move” to “being able to be used,” with insufficient reliability in industrial dexterous hands.

8. A fire broke out at a factory in Weihai, Shandong, resulting in 4 deaths. The open flames have been extinguished, and the investigation is ongoing.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 23:00-00:00

1. Bitcoin’s price broke through $63,000 to hit a recent high, but Strategy sold 3,588 BTC (worth $216 million), causing the market to drop 4%. Analysts warn that a summer repeat of the 2022 trend may be in the cards.

2. Fed Governor Waller warned that hawkish forward guidance could become a policy obstacle. He suggested relying on data-driven decision-making for rate cuts, emphasizing that forward guidance must remain flexible and should not be “more is better.”

3. BlackRock extracted 7,546 ETH from Coinbase Prime (worth roughly $13.2 million), showing that institutional interest in Ethereum continues to rise. After Ethereum held the $1,500 region, it attempted to rebound.

4. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market reached $314 million—longs and shorts were both wiped out, leading to extreme volatility. A CertiK report shows that the number of crypto hacking attacks in the first half of 2024 fell 47% year over year, but losses surged 59% quarter over quarter in the second quarter.

5. Trump hinted that he may include Bitcoin in accounts, calling himself a loyal fan of cryptocurrencies, sparking discussion in political circles about crypto adoption.

6. Financing remains active: Tripo AI completed a $150 million A3 round; Skello raised €200 million; CurifyLabs completed a €12 million Series A; and Stoa secured a €2.1 million pre-Seed round.

7. Tech & AI: Tencent released the Hunyuan Hy3 model, generating a 3D parkour mini-game in 5 minutes. Illinois signed a bill requiring leading AI companies to undergo third-party security audits every year. Multiple companies have begun limiting AI tool usage quotas and charging fees.

8. Cybersecurity: Apple’s Indian supplier, Tata Electronics, was hit by hackers, resulting in data leakage of over 200,000 files (630GB). Quantum security risk experts warn that the situation has entered a critical phase.

📡 Daily News Roundup | July 06

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have been engaged in intense, high-stakes competition amid multiple geopolitical conflicts, policy shifts, and fragmentation within the technology sector. With Israel’s cabinet historically rejecting the Supreme Court ruling, Trump pushing signals for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and tensions within NATO intertwined, the geopolitical risk premium has risen significantly. Demand for AI hardware has continued to surge, but NVIDIA’s next-generation rack solution being delayed to 2028 has sent shockwaves through the supply chain—creating an “ice-and-fire” situation where worries about an AI bubble coexist with soaring earnings. Meanwhile, volatility in the cryptocurrency market has increased: Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $620,000–$6.35 million, and ETF fund flows along with a miner stress index suggest a potential bottom may be near. Investors should remain alert to structural opportunities after short-term shocks, focusing on the NATO summit, changes in crude oil supply and demand, and the earnings main storyline in technology stocks’ mid-year reports.

---

📊 Global Macroeconomics

1. OPEC+ confirmed an 188,000-barrel-per-day increase in production for August. Seven countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia will adjust output. Saudi Aramco will cut the official selling price of Arab Light crude exported to Asia in August by $11 per barrel, the largest discount in at least 26 years. The market views it as a signal of a price war. Brent crude is nearing $70, and Wall Street has warned that supply could be excessive next year.

2. Citigroup expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to restart interest-rate cuts in October, since the rationale for hikes has disappeared—potentially benefiting liquidity in the cryptocurrency and RWA markets. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 77%. The market is watching this week’s economic data and remarks from officials.

3. Germany plans to raise net new borrowing for 2027 to 118 billion euros, due to tax revenue coming in below expectations. In the eurozone, July’s Sentix investor confidence index rose to -3.1, far better than the forecast of -10, indicating resilience in European manufacturing.

4. The central bank today conducted a 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term, ending a process of gradually shrinking volumes for three consecutive months at that tenor. It also carried out a 7-billion-yuan reverse repurchase with a 7-day term. Net injections for the day totaled 49.5 billion yuan, keeping liquidity reasonably ample.

5. This year’s full list of “two major” construction projects has been fully allocated. A total of 8,000 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been arranged to support 1,417 major projects. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launched a Category-II emergency response for flood control in Guangxi. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management urgently pre-allocated 160 million yuan in disaster-relief funds.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin nearly hit $63.5 million over the weekend, reaching a two-week high. But traders warn that Monday’s price action could be “extremely bad.” The Bitcoin Sharpe ratio has fallen to below -20, and the miner stress index has hit a historical low. Historical patterns suggest the price may be close to a bottom. The bargain-hunting index AHR999 dropped to 0.32, near a historical low.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive week. Within four trading days, net redemptions totaled about $527 million. However, Trump said he is a “die-hard” supporter of crypto and hinted that his trading platform may support Bitcoin. For the first time in about a month, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows.

3. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about $216 million. This is the largest-scale sale since 2020. Unrealized losses in the second quarter reached $8.31 billion.

4. Next week, more than $1.1 billion in tokens will be unlocked. RAIN accounts for $796 million of that total, and the market is watching liquidity-related risks. Solana’s number of active addresses over the past seven days reached 31.38 million, up 38% year over year.

5. A Bitcoin wallet that went dormant in 2011 was activated 14 years later, delivering returns of more than 700,000 times. The New York Times reported that nearly one million investors have cumulatively lost $3.81 billion due to the TRUMP Meme coin.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. NVIDIA’s next-generation AI rack system Kyber NVL144 has been delayed to 2028 due to PCB manufacturing challenges, giving competitors such as AMD extra room to catch up. Shares of PCB-related companies collectively plunged. NVIDIA also unveiled a new revenue-sharing plan, offering AI startups a share of future sales in exchange for providing GPU computing power.

2. OpenAI secretly filed for an IPO application, targeting a listing in 2027 at a valuation of $1 trillion. It will also proactively cede 5% equity to the U.S. government to hedge regulatory risks. Tencent officially released the Hy3 model from its Hunyuan (混元) line; its performance matches a flagship model with a parameter scale 2–5 times larger. It has been open-sourced and API prices have been reduced.

3. Micron Technology began a $9.3 billion wafer-fab expansion project in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce AI memory chips such as HBM. The Japanese government will provide subsidies of up to about 500 billion yen. Samsung Electronics expects a roughly 18x year-on-year surge in operating profit in the second quarter. SK hynix has launched an approximately $28 billion U.S. listing plan.

4. Foxconn’s June sales rose 52.1% year over year. Shipments of AI server racks have continued growing, and quarterly sales increased 40%—exceeding expectations. Zedap (永鼎股份) expects net profit in the first half to grow 57%–120% year over year, driven by booming AI compute demand that lifts both volume and pricing in the fiber-optic market.

5. SoundHound’s (云知声) stock price plunged 90%. The collapse exposed the drawbacks of a project-based AI business model and sparked market concerns that the AI bubble may be bursting. ByteDance and Alibaba, in response to new regulatory rules, will take down humanoid AI agent functionality from their respective AI applications.

6. Broadcom and Apple signed a new multi-year agreement to extend their technology collaboration through 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple. Analyst Guo Ming-chi (郭明錤) predicts that Apple will release a foldable-screen iPhone Ultra in September 2026, priced around $2,299–$2,499.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. Israel’s cabinet unanimously rejected obedience to the Supreme Court ruling, setting a historical precedent. Netanyahu said the forces would continue to remain in Lebanon and reaffirmed efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Israel Defense Forces said they have fully taken control of the southern Lebanese area around Beaufort Ridge. The Chief of the General Staff warned that if a ceasefire agreement is violated, they are prepared to launch an offensive in Lebanon at any time.

2. The White House confirmed that Trump will meet with Ukraine’s President Zelensky during the NATO summit and plans further communication with Putin afterward, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as quickly as possible. Trump said he had a “very good” call with Putin and believes the Russia-Ukraine con...

...

📡 8-hour Recap | Jul 06 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed a mixed picture: mainland China and Hong Kong stocks moved in opposite directions, while US technology stocks rebounded strongly amid upbeat news such as extended Apple cooperation and continued AI demand. On the geopolitical front, just before the NATO summit, media reported that Trump took a tough stance toward NATO; meanwhile, signs of potential talks emerged in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In commodities, a sharp cut in Saudi Arabia’s official crude oil prices sparked expectations of looser supply, and the chip-storage price rise trend continued to transmit to the consumer end.

Macro economy

1. All three major A-share indices closed lower: the Shanghai Composite fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.16%, and the ChiNext fell 1.77%. Sectors such as pork, coal, and innovative pharmaceuticals rose against the trend, while robotics and PCB-related concept stocks saw sharp pullbacks.

2. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed up 1.14%. Internet-tech stocks warmed up: Kuaishou rose nearly 8%, and Tencent gained more than 4%. Southbound capital recorded a large net buy of HK$20.528 billion, setting a new high for nearly one and a half months.

3. In the eurozone, the July Sentix investor confidence index rose to -3.1, far better than the forecast of -10. In the US, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, marking the 24th consecutive month of expansion.

4. This year’s list of “two major” special construction projects has been fully issued. In total, RMB 800 billion in long-term special treasury bonds were allocated to support 1,417 major projects.

5. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launched a second-level flood control emergency response for Guangxi. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management urgently pre-allocated RMB 160 million in disaster relief funds.

Crypto market

1. Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about US$216 million in cash. This was the largest-scale sale since 2020. An unrealized loss in the second quarter reached US$8.31 billion.

2. Trump said he is a “crypto die-hard” and hinted that his trading platform may support Bitcoin. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the first time in nearly a month.

3. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s US dollar gold futures for daytime trading hit a record high of 6,676 contracts, indicating a significant increase in market participation.

AI technology

1. Tencent released its Hunyuan Hy3 model. Performance is comparable to a flagship model with two to five times the parameter scale. It has been open-sourced, and Tencent’s API pricing was further reduced. Tencent Yuanbao also integrated and launched a free Agent feature.

2. The first Global Dialogue on AI Governance was held in Geneva, focusing on four priority areas: AI opportunities, capacity building, safety and trustworthiness, and human-rights oversight.

3. In the first phase of the Cyberspace Administration of China’s special campaign “Clear Up: Rectify Disorder in AI Applications,” more than 14,000 non-compliant AI products were handled, and over 6 million pieces of违规 information were cleaned up.

4. Broadcom and Apple signed a new multi-year agreement to extend their technology collaboration to 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple, and the stock price rose by more than 4% before the bell.

5. A Goldman Sachs report said the focus of AI investment is extending into the real economy. Global AI capital expenditures may reach US$7.6 trillion from 2026 to 2031, and world models could become a new engine.

Geopolitics

1. Ahead of the NATO summit, US media reported that Trump wants to turn NATO into a “cash machine,” asking allies to increase defense budgets, and plans to speak with Putin after meeting with Zelensky.

2. Trump said he had a “very good call” with Putin and believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end “much faster than people think.”

3. Ukraine’s military said it carried out attacks on Russian oil refineries in the Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions. Russia said the Leningrad region was hit by drone strikes that damaged port facilities.

4. Hamas announced the dissolution of its wartime emergency administration body in Gaza, transferring administrative and civil governance authority to the Palestinian technical bureaucracy commission.

Commodities and energy

1. Saudi Aramco cut the official selling price of its Arab Light crude oil for August exports to Asia by US$11 per barrel. The magnitude of the cut is the largest in at least 26 years, and the market views it as a signal of a price war.

2. Maersk announced that its AE15 Gemini service has resumed navigation through the Suez Canal. Analysts believe this is the first step toward a full return to the Red Sea.

3. China’s national average price for three-yuan sows and hogs continued rising for nearly 10 days, up 16.8% in a row. After four months, it returned to the RMB 10/kg level, and the livestock breeding sector was broadly in the green.

4. Goldman Sachs lowered its aluminum price forecast, citing faster recovery in Middle East supply. It expects the global aluminum market deficit in 2026 to narrow significantly to 1 million tons.

Market sentiment and key focus

Overall sentiment was cautiously optimistic: US stocks rebounded strongly on AI demand and partnerships involving tech giants, but Saudi’s crude price cut raised concerns about looser supply. On the geopolitical front, signals of possible Russia-Ukraine talks and internal frictions within NATO are intertwined. Investors need to pay attention to developments after the NATO summit and changes in the oil market’s supply-demand dynamics.

📡 Hourly News Update | 22:00-23:00

1. The U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, marking the 24th consecutive month of expansion. The employment index rose to 51.2, while the prices index fell to 67.7.

2. Trump said he had a “very good call” with Putin and believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end “much sooner than people think.” He also said he has obtained concessions on the Iran issue.

3. Goldman Sachs reported that AI investment is shifting toward the real economy. Global AI capital expenditures from 2026 to 2031 may reach $7.6 trillion, and world models may become a new engine.

4. Trump said he is a “die-hard” supporter of cryptocurrencies and hinted that his trading platform could support Bitcoin. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the first time in nearly a month.

5. Dell’s stock surged more than 8% after Trump’s remarks. AMD’s gains widened to 10%, and the Nasdaq 100 hit a new intraday high.

6. A press conference in Nanning, Guangxi on flood prevention and disaster relief said the situation could expand further. The Ministry of Emergency Management upgraded the national geological disaster emergency response to Level 3.

7. Trump asked FIFA to review the red card decision against U.S. player Balogun and said he has spoken with FIFA President.

8. The Argentine government has postponed the legislative process for the AmE trade agreement, citing a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that limits the president’s tariff power.

📡 Hourly News Update | 21:00-22:00

1. The Bank of Israel will cut the benchmark interest rate from 3.75% to 3.50%, in line with expectations. It is also forecast that GDP growth will be 4.0% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.

2. Strategy Inc. sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin last week, the largest scale sale since 2020. Digital asset losses in the second quarter totaled $8.32 billion, and the stock fell by more than 5% before the market opened.

3. Microsoft announced layoffs of about 6,400 employees, with half coming from the Xbox gaming division. The job cuts involve reorganization of sales and gaming businesses, and the stock dropped by about 2%.

4. All three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s gain widened to over 3.5%. Broadcom rose more than 6%, and Western Digital climbed more than 8%, boosted by AI demand and an Apple partnership extended through 2031.

5. Trump delivered remarks at the White House, praising the Trump account project and commending Dell. Dell’s stock surged by more than 3% in the short term.

6. Saudi Aramco will cut the official selling price for crude oil exports to Asia in August by $11, the largest reduction in 26 years. The market views this as a signal of a price war, and expectations of looser supply are rising.

7. In June, the UAE increased its crude oil production to more than 3.8 million barrels per day, nearing a historical peak. After exiting OPEC, output rose sharply.

8. Meng Fanli, Deputy Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and Governor, investigated the artificial intelligence industry in Guangzhou. He emphasized accelerating high-level applications across the entire region, around the clock, and across all industries, to drive high-quality development of the sector.

📡 Top-of-the-hour briefing | 20:00-21:00

1. Broadcom and Apple sign a new multi-year agreement, extending their technology collaboration through 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple, and the pre-market share price rises by more than 4%.

2. Saudi Aramco cuts the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for exports to Asia in August by $11 per barrel, the largest decline in at least 26 years, in response to a global surge in supply.

3. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange reports abnormal trading volatility in the stock of China Gong Education. Regulatory measures have been taken against relevant investors, such as suspending trading, reminding investors to trade in compliance and with caution.

4. This year’s lists of “two major” infrastructure projects have all been issued. A total of RMB 8 trillion in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been allocated to support the construction of 1,417 major projects.

5. Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about $216 million. In the second quarter, unrealized losses reached $8.31 billion.

6. Morgan Stanley strategists say it may be difficult for U.S. stocks to make new highs in the near term. Funds are rotating from chip stocks to AI cloud service providers, with a bullish outlook on Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

7. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announce the resumption of service on part of the Suez Canal routes. Analysts believe this is the first step toward a full return to the Red Sea.

8. In a new industry announcement, the company says that its actual controller, Weng Xanding, has been placed under “retention for investigation.” The company also states that since 2021 he has not held any position, and that this does not affect production and operations.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 19:00-20:00

1. SK hynix launches a U.S. listing pitch, with an offering size of about $28 billion. It is expected to rank among the top three largest IPOs in global history and has received oversubscription.

2. The full-fledged surge in storage chip prices is fully filtering through to consumer markets. The price of a 1TB solid-state drive has risen from RMB 500 to RMB 1,000, and demand for AI compute power is expected to keep squeezing production capacity through 2027.

3. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Cleveland Clinic, and IBM achieve, for the first time, fusion-materials computing on a quantum computer, marking a major technical breakthrough.

4. In the first half of 2026, global activist investors launched 184 rights-protection actions, up 20% year over year, setting a new historical record.

5. Tencent seeks to sell its stake in Kuaishou, with proceeds of up to about $1.6 billion. It plans to cut holdings by about 273 million shares via block trades.

6. The UK Financial Conduct Authority plans to expand its regulatory powers, covering major tech firms developing finance-related AI such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

7. Goldman Sachs raises its target price for AMD to $640 and for Qualcomm to $180, bullish on the semiconductor industry outlook.

8. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s U.S. dollar gold futures daytime trading hits a record high of 6,676 contracts, with market participation significantly increasing.