by thesharkke

Updated May 15

271.8K

BINANCE:BTCUSDT has been showing bullish prospects all week and has been consolidating above key zones, preparing to go higher, but on Friday the market changed to bearish and there is a reason for that. BTC lost 3.3% on Friday and is currently painting a bearish picture. There are two reasons

by RLinda

Updated 21 minutes ago

41205

🅱️ Expert Confirms: Bitcoin Set To Crash Below 30KSignals are available everywhere... And new data is coming in all of the timing. The market is great. Even though we get confirmation after confirmation, doubts still creeps in. Even though we see the market moving just as we would expect it to move based on the cycle, sentiment and chart signals;

by AlanSantana

Updated 18 hours ago

4371

🅱️ Bitcoin 4X SHORT (151% Profits Potential)➖ Last week Bitcoin produced what appears to be a bullish candlestick pattern, which is good. This week, a negation happens and prices move to trade and close below EMA10. ➖ The rejection (bearish close) right after the recovery (bullish close) results in a "failed signal," these failed signals are

by AlanSantana

Updated 18 hours ago

3477

How To Trade Triangles Like A Pro?Welcome, traders and investors, to our educational post on ascending and descending triangles! In the fast-paced world of financial markets, understanding chart patterns like these is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Ascending and descending triangles are powerful tools that prov

by RocketBomb

Updated May 15

26636

1. I'm Back - Bitcoin - Long for the 90'sBitcoin continues to hold the 60k levels, and by the weekly candles, any and all dips are being bought up. However the market does not feel over exuberant and so in my opinion there is room to run here. The next level of importance is around 92-95k, so for me I am slowly stepping in for the nex

by goldbug1

May 13

1967

BITCOIN Another 1D MA50 rejection. More bleeding ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke again below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the 3rd rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in almost 1 month (since the April 13 bearish break-out). If it stays unbroken, it is a far from ideal development as the 1-year price action has shown us that such a pattern r

by TradingShot

May 11

1183

[BTCUSD] - the most important resistance in 1D chartin 1D chart BTC is still consolidating in falling wedge pattern...breaking out the upper side make btc trading above the green rectangular and it's just a matter of time to habben. Green rectangular is a most important zone in this chart...it represents a neck line of the inverse H&S pattern , 0.5

by ceciliones

Updated May 15

1833

New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as

18:17

by Mayfair_Ventures

May 14

7154

Fib Retracement questions smart money SPOOFING!Fib Retracement with an interesting smart money contraction. Trend line points parallel upwards to wear the smart money contraction, horizontal red dotted line. If there’s a breakout then the 2MO TF BEARS loose. Stoch RSI will confirm it by bull trend must cross the bear trend making a curve to the

by The_ForexX_Mindset

Updated 17 hours ago

2823

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The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data

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3 hours agoNewsBTC

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• /The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-C…

The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data

May 17, 202413:30 GMT+6

Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data analysis that sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest insights highlight a period he describes as “Quiet and Trending,” suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side pressures and shifts in volatility.

Bitcoin Follows The Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern

Since December, Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over 1.5 million BTC being sold. “Around 30% of this came out of GBTC, but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,” Check explains. Despite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements might imply.

A striking aspect of Check’s analysis is the transformation in Bitcoin’s volatility profile. “The overall realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,” states Check. This trend indicates a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early years.

Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s volatility: “What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!” He posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull run, rather than nearing its end.

A critical tool in Check’s analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases. According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0 and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. “Only when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,” Check notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions.

Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to $57k, Check observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability of short-term holders. “The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a top-heavy market.”

He further highlights that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands.

Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart comparison of Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility against top-performing US stocks, showing that Bitcoin’s volatility is well within a manageable range.

Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the “out sized performance of the Magnificent-7,” which is counterbalanced by the poorer performance of the other components.

By highlighting the structural aspects of the current “Quiet and Trending” market phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial asset.

He concludes, “Overall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks fairly structured, following stair-stepping rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that can lead to instability.”

At press time, BTC traded at $66,288.

#bitcoin #Binance #USDT #Web3