Cas Abbé

I’m looking at both charts side by side and the message is getting harder to ignore.
$BTC and $ETH are both losing structure at the same time.
Not just random red candles. Not just healthy correction talk from people trying to sound smart on Twitter. I’m talking about a market structure that has been weakening for weeks while people kept calling every bounce the bottom
Bitcoin rejected again near the upper resistance trendline, then lost momentum fast. Ethereum did the exact same thing. Same rising structure. Same exhaustion. Same failure. That kind of synchronized weakness matters because ETH usually follows BTC, but when both start breaking down together, liquidity leaves the entire market.
Most people only look at candles.
I look at behavior
And the behavior right now feels very different from the aggressive breakout environment we had earlier in the cycle. Buyers are weaker. Every push upward is getting sold faster. The rallies are shorter. Volume isn’t convincing. That’s what distribution looks like before volatility expands.
What makes this more dangerous is that leverage is still extremely high across the market. Open interest has been sitting near cycle highs while price struggles to reclaim key levels. That’s usually not a good combination. It means too many traders are positioned before confirmation.
And honestly, this is where most retail traders get trapped.
People think breakdowns happen in one giant candle. They don’t.
First the market stops making strong highs. Then momentum weakens. Then support lines that “always hold” suddenly don’t hold anymore. After that, panic starts. The real move usually comes after denial.
Ethereum especially looks weak here.
ETH has already been underperforming Bitcoin for weeks, ETF flows are slowing, and exchange reserves have been climbing again. That means more supply sitting on exchanges waiting to move. At the same time, long positioning stayed crowded while price kept falling. That’s a brutal setup when support finally breaks.
Now here’s the important part most people miss.
A rising wedge is not magic.
Some traders treat it like a guaranteed crash signal, which is wrong. Historically, these patterns fail often and sometimes even break upward instead.
But context matters.
And the context right now is ugly:
> weakening momentum
> macro uncertainty
> unstable risk appetite
> heavy leverage
> fading ETF strength
> repeated rejection at resistance
That combination is what makes this dangerous.
I’m not saying the bull market is dead forever.
I’m saying the market is entering the phase where blind optimism becomes expensive.
There’s a huge difference.
If BTC loses major support cleanly, the conversation changes fast. Suddenly everyone who was posting moon targets starts talking about market manipulation. That’s how crypto cycles always work. Confidence disappears much faster than it was built.
I think people got too comfortable again.
Every dip was bought.
Every warning was ignored.
Every breakout call got engagement.
Markets punish comfort eventually.
For me, this is not the time to chase random altcoins because some influencer posted rocket emojis. This is the time to protect capital, stay patient, and wait for confirmation instead of gambling on hope.
Because when both BTC and ETH start breaking structure together, the market is usually telling you something before the crowd realizes it.
#BTC

Bitcoin's six-week rally has come to an end. After climbing steadily for 42 straight days, BTC has broken down technically and traders are now watching one number closely: $60,000.
What Changed
Several signals flipped bearish in quick succession:
1- Trendline broken: Bitcoin closed below the daily uptrend line that had defined its climb for over a month.
2- 50-day moving average lost: Price has fallen below this widely watched short-to-medium-term trend indicator, a level many algorithmic and swing traders use to gauge momentum.
3- RSI breakdown: The daily Relative Strength Index has broken its own supporting trendline, suggesting momentum is fading, not just price.
Taken together, these are classic ingredients of a trend reversal: a broken trendline confirms the structure has shifted, a lost moving average confirms it on a lagging basis, and a cracking RSI shows buyers are losing conviction underneath the price action.
Why $60,000 Matters
$60,000 is shaping up to be the key support zone for this leg of the market. As of this week, Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid $60,000s meaning price is sitting just above that level, not far below it. That makes the next few sessions important.
1- Hold $60K: A bounce from this zone would offer bulls a chance to argue the pullback is a healthy correction within a larger range, rather than the start of a deeper decline.
2- Lose $60K: A confirmed close below it would remove the last major technical floor from this stretch of trading, and could accelerate selling as stop-losses and momentum-following sellers pile in.
It's worth noting the broader context: Bitcoin remains well below its all-time high near $126,000 set in late 2025, and has spent much of the first half of 2026 consolidating after that peak. Some analysts see the market trading more like a macro-sensitive asset lately, reacting to broader risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific catalysts alone. Longer-term technical views are split some chart watchers point to a multi-year rising channel and a potential bottoming process, while others note the market has already broken below prior support levels earlier this year.
The Takeaway
Nothing here is a prediction it's a read of the chart as it stands. $60,000 is the level that will likely determine whether this is a routine pullback within a broader uptrend or the start of something more serious. Traders and investors watching Bitcoin should treat a confirmed break of that level as the signal worth acting on, rather than reacting to day-to-day noise above it.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC

I think we are getting very close to something that could completely change how people trade traditional markets. The SEC is preparing a framework that could allow tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs to trade around the clock on blockchain rails. Nothing is final yet, and I want to make that very clear, but this is no longer some crypto Twitter fantasy.
The SEC is actively working on it, major exchanges are building for it, and the pieces are starting to come together.
The basic idea is actually pretty simple. Instead of owning a traditional share sitting inside the existing market infrastructure, a stock can be represented as a digital token on a blockchain. That token can potentially move and trade using blockchain infrastructure that doesn’t close at 4 PM on Friday. Bitcoin already showed the world what a market that operates 24/7 looks like. Now traditional finance seems increasingly interested in taking that same infrastructure and putting stocks on it.
And this is where I think people are underestimating the story.
If tokenized stocks are eventually allowed to trade continuously, the stock market doesn’t have to operate around the old Monday-to-Friday, fixed-hours model in the same way. Imagine seeing a major earnings announcement on Saturday and being able to react to it immediately instead of waiting for Monday’s opening bell. Imagine global investors accessing U.S. equities during their own local trading hours instead of waiting for Wall Street to wake up.
That’s a pretty massive change.
The SEC has already been moving toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory framework under Chair Paul Atkins. Earlier this year, Atkins discussed an “innovation exemption,” and the SEC has been working on rules around crypto investment contracts and tokenized securities. The important distinction, though, is that the SEC has not officially approved 24/7 tokenized stock trading yet. The framework is still developing, and the exact rules matter enormously.
That uncertainty is probably the biggest thing I would watch.
For example, regulators have been looking at whether third-party platforms should be able to tokenize a company’s shares without the company’s permission. There are also questions around what exactly investors receive when they buy a tokenized stock. Does it come with voting rights? Dividends? The same legal ownership rights as a traditional share? These aren’t small details. They determine whether tokenized equities become a genuine evolution of the stock market or simply another wrapper around existing financial products.
Then there is the ugly but necessary part: regulation, security and anti-money-laundering controls.
A blockchain might never sleep, but regulators still have to know who is trading, where the assets are coming from and who ultimately owns them. That’s why any serious U.S. framework will likely come with strict compliance requirements. The whole point isn’t to throw Wall Street onto a blockchain and hope everything works out. It’s to bring blockchain efficiency into regulated finance without throwing investor protection out of the window.
And Wall Street isn’t waiting around.
The NYSE has already partnered with Securitize to develop a digital trading platform aimed at 24/7 tokenized stock and ETF trading, subject to regulatory approval. Nasdaq is also working toward expanded trading hours and blockchain-based market infrastructure. This tells me something important: traditional finance isn’t asking whether blockchain is useful anymore. The conversation is increasingly becoming how quickly can we integrate it?
The market is already moving in that direction. Tokenized real-world assets and securities have grown into a multi-billion-dollar sector, while crypto exchanges and financial platforms are experimenting with tokenized versions of traditional assets. Binance, for example, has introduced its own tokenized-stock initiative through BNB Chain.
But here’s my bigger takeaway.
This isn’t really about buying Apple or Tesla on a blockchain.
It’s about financial infrastructure.
If stocks, bonds, funds, treasuries and other real-world assets increasingly become blockchain-based, settlement can become faster, markets can become more accessible globally, and financial assets can potentially become composable in ways that simply aren’t possible inside today’s fragmented systems.
Bitcoin started with the idea that money could operate without a bank deciding when the network opens and closes.
Now we’re watching traditional markets experiment with the same underlying concept.
That’s the irony I find most interesting.
Crypto spent years being told that blockchain was a solution looking for a problem. Now one of the world’s most important financial regulators and some of America’s biggest exchanges are seriously exploring blockchain as part of the next generation of market infrastructure.
I don’t think that means every stock is suddenly going to become a crypto token tomorrow. It won’t. Regulation still has to be finalized, investor protections have to be defined, and the industry has to prove that tokenization actually improves markets rather than simply adding another layer of complexity.
But if the SEC gets this framework right, I think the impact could go far beyond crypto.
The bigger story isn’t that stocks might trade 24/7.
It’s that Wall Street is slowly moving toward a financial system that looks a lot more like crypto.
And honestly, that is a pretty wild full-circle moment.
#BTC

Michael Saylor’s Strategy just sold another 1,690 BTC for roughly $108.6 million.
And this isn’t a one-off anymore.
Between August 3 and August 9, Strategy sold those BTC at an average price of $64,262, then used the entire $108.6 million to buy back 1.15 million STRC preferred shares. This is now the second consecutive week we’ve seen Strategy sell Bitcoin.
When I first saw the headline, my immediate reaction was basically: Wait, Saylor is actually selling again?
Because for years, the entire Strategy thesis was built around one simple idea: Sell everything else. Buy Bitcoin. Never sell the Bitcoin.
That part has clearly changed.
But I don’t think the right way to interpret this is simply, “Saylor is bearish on Bitcoin.” That’s too easy.
Strategy officially changed its capital strategy in June when it introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework. The company now has authorization to monetize up to $1.25 billion of BTC when needed to build its dollar reserve, fund preferred dividends and interest, or repurchase securities. Strategy described the shift as moving toward more active capital management.
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
Strategy sold $108.6 million of Bitcoin and immediately recycled that money into STRC.
So this isn’t really “Bitcoin in, dollars out.”
It’s more like Bitcoin → liquidity → strengthen the capital structure.
That’s an important distinction.
Strategy still owns an absolutely ridiculous amount of Bitcoin. After this latest sale, the company holds 840,447 BTC, acquired for roughly $63.36 billion, at an average cost of about $75,385 per BTC. At Bitcoin prices around $65K, that means the company’s average position is currently underwater.
And here’s where things get interesting.
Strategy has now sold roughly 6,900+ BTC during 2026 for approximately $432 million. That sounds massive until you put it against the size of the treasury.
We’re talking about less than 1% of its Bitcoin holdings.
So I’m not looking at this and thinking Saylor has suddenly abandoned Bitcoin.
I’m looking at it as a company that has discovered something very important about its own financial machine: Bitcoin is an asset, but the preferred-stock structure creates obligations that have to be funded in dollars.
That’s where STRC comes into the picture.
Strategy has around $1.76 billion in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations, according to reporting around its new framework. The company has been building its dollar reserve specifically to make sure those obligations can be covered without being forced into ugly decisions during a Bitcoin crash.
And the reserve is getting big.
Strategy said it raised about $653.1 million through MSTR common-stock sales during the latest week, pushing its USD reserve to roughly $4.65 billion. That’s more than twice the amount it just raised from selling BTC.
That tells me something.
The Bitcoin sales aren’t currently the main source of Strategy’s liquidity. They’re one tool in a much bigger capital-management strategy.
And honestly, that’s probably healthier than pretending Bitcoin can never be touched under any circumstances.
But there is still a problem. Strategy is selling Bitcoin while BTC is below its average acquisition price.
That’s not exactly a flex.
It means the company is effectively monetizing part of its Bitcoin position at a loss relative to its average cost basis, while using the proceeds to stabilize another part of the balance sheet. That doesn’t make the strategy broken, but it does show how complicated the Saylor machine has become.
The market is watching this closely because Strategy isn’t just another corporate Bitcoin holder.
It has become one of the biggest sources of leveraged Bitcoin exposure in traditional markets.
If Bitcoin rallies, MSTR can benefit massively.
But when BTC struggles, the pressure doesn’t just hit Bitcoin.
It hits MSTR.
It hits the preferred stocks.
It hits the company’s ability to raise capital.
And suddenly that famous “buy Bitcoin forever” machine needs liquidity.
That’s the part I think the market is slowly beginning to understand.
So am I bearish because Strategy sold another $108.6 million of BTC?
No.
But I am paying attention.
If these sales keep accelerating, if the company starts selling much larger portions of its treasury, or if Bitcoin falls far enough that Strategy’s financing model starts getting seriously stressed, then the story changes.
Right now, though, the numbers tell a different story.
Strategy still owns 840,447 BTC.
It just raised another $653 million through MSTR.
Its dollar reserve has climbed to around $4.65 billion.
And the latest Bitcoin sale was used to buy back STRC rather than simply disappear into the company’s expenses.
So my takeaway is pretty simple.
Saylor isn’t throwing in the towel on Bitcoin. He’s learning that even the biggest Bitcoin bull on Wall Street needs a cash-management strategy.
The interesting question now isn’t “Will Strategy ever sell Bitcoin again?”
We already have the answer.
The real question is:
How much BTC will Strategy be willing to sell if Bitcoin enters another serious downturn?
That’s the number I’m watching.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC

Let me tell you!
I keep having the same conversation. Someone looks at Bitcoin sitting around $65K, down from $126K, and tells me the run is over. I get why it feels that way if you’re only looking at the chart. But I don’t think most people have actually sat with what’s sitting on the Senate floor right now and what it could mean if it gets signed.
The bill everyone’s sleeping on
The CLARITY Act isn’t some fringe crypto lobbying wishlist. It passed the House back in July 2025 with a 294-134 vote that’s more than 70 Democrats crossing the aisle on a crypto bill, which almost never happens. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 in May 2026. As of this week, it’s sitting on the calendar with a cloture motion filed, and Thune has promised a floor vote before recess.
Is it law yet? No.
It could still slip to September, or even into 2027 if this window closes. I’m not going to pretend otherwise I’ve watched this bill get “almost there” more than once this year.
But the fact that it’s gotten this far, with this much bipartisan support, tells me the direction of travel is set even if the timing isn’t.
Why I think the number is bigger than people realize
Here’s the part that actually keeps me up at night. What CLARITY does is settle the question that’s been paralyzing institutional money for years: is this a security or a commodity? Who regulates it the SEC or the CFTC?
Right now, that ambiguity is the single biggest reason pension funds, insurers, and traditional asset managers stay on the sidelines. Not price. Not volatility. Regulatory risk.
Once that question has a statutory answer instead of an it depends who’s running the agency this year answer, you’re not just opening the door for more retail buyers.
You’re opening the door for real-world asset tokenization, global stablecoin payment rails, and institutional capital that’s been sitting on the sidelines specifically because compliance teams couldn’t get comfortable.
People throw around a $16 trillion+ figure for what that could eventually unlock across RWAs, tokenization, and stablecoin infrastructure and even if that number ends up being generous, half of it would still be transformative for this asset class.
The gap that makes me want to hold, not sell
This is the comparison I keep coming back to. Total crypto market cap right now is around $2.2-2.3 trillion. The US stock market alone is worth over $75 trillion. That’s not crypto being “already priced in” — that’s crypto still being a rounding error next to legacy equity markets, even after everything that’s happened since 2020.
Bitcoin is roughly 56% of that $2.2 trillion crypto market. So when I zoom out, I’m not looking at a coin that mooned and is now “done.” I’m looking at an asset class that’s maybe 3% the size of the market it’s increasingly being compared to, sitting one piece of legislation away from a regulatory green light that could bring in capital that’s been locked out for a decade.
Where I stand
I’m not saying the chart doesn’t matter short-term Bitcoin’s retesting some important moving averages right now and that fight is real. But I separate the next few weeks of price action from the next few years of market structure. One is noise. The other is the reason I think people who exit here are going to look back at $65K the way people looked back at $16K in 2022.
Not financial advice. CLARITY Act status current as of August 2026 verify before sharing, as the legislative timeline is still moving.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC

I think a lot of people are celebrating today’s bounce a little too early.
Yes, Bitcoin reacted from the weekly support zone. But here’s the problem: the bounce has only been around 2.5%. For an asset as volatile as Bitcoin, that’s hardly the kind of reaction I’d expect if buyers were truly stepping in with conviction. To me, it still looks more like a weak relief rally than the start of a new trend.
That’s why I still lean toward the “progressively weakening support” approach
Every time Bitcoin revisits the same support level, buyers become a little less aggressive. The first bounce is usually strong. The second is weaker. By the third or fourth test, the market has often absorbed most of the demand sitting there. Support doesn’t become stronger because it’s tested repeatedly—it usually becomes more vulnerable.
The structure also hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin continues to print lower highs, and that’s the biggest problem for the bulls right now. Every rally is getting sold earlier than the previous one. Until that sequence breaks, I see no reason to assume the broader downtrend is over. A trend doesn’t reverse because of one green candle. It reverses when the market stops making lower highs and starts building higher highs again.
That’s the level I’m watching.
For me, the invalidation is simple. Bitcoin needs to break above both the lower-high trendline formed by candle closes and the descending trendline formed by the upper wicks. Those are the areas where sellers have repeatedly defended price. If BTC can reclaim both with strong volume, then I’ll happily admit the structure has changed. Until then, every rally still looks like another lower high waiting to happen.
The macro backdrop doesn’t make me want to chase either.
Institutional demand has improved from the panic we saw earlier this year, but it still isn’t as aggressive as it was during the strongest parts of the bull market. ETF flows have become more inconsistent, while markets continue reacting to inflation expectations, interest-rate outlooks, and broader liquidity conditions. Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain healthy, but the macro environment isn’t giving risk assets an easy ride.
Technically, I actually like one thing: Bitcoin hasn’t completely fallen apart despite all of this.
That tells me buyers are still defending key areas. But defending support isn’t the same as reclaiming resistance. Those are two completely different stages of a market cycle. Right now, I think Bitcoin is doing the first one, not the second.
My view is pretty straightforward.
As long as Bitcoin keeps printing lower highs, I’m treating rallies with caution rather than excitement.
If buyers finally break that structure, the entire picture changes.
But until the market proves it can do that, I think this is still a chart where patience beats prediction. Sometimes the biggest mistake isn’t being bearish.
It’s calling every bounce the beginning of the next bull run.
#BTC走势分析 #btc

Dogecoin is sitting at one of the most interesting spots I’ve seen in years.
Price is down roughly 90% from its all-time high, recently tagged a 3-year low around $0.067, and the monthly RSI is now more oversold than it was during the 2022 bear market bottom. That’s not something you see often. In fact, this is one of the most extreme momentum readings $DOGE has ever printed.
Whenever I see a chart stretched this far, I stop asking, “How much lower can it go?” and start asking, “Is the downside finally getting exhausted?”
Here’s what many people get wrong.
An oversold RSI isn’t a buy signal.
It’s a warning that selling pressure has reached an extreme.
Those are two very different things.
Markets can stay oversold longer than most people expect, but historically, these are also the periods where risk-reward starts shifting back in favor of patient buyers. Not because the trend has changed, but because everyone who wanted to sell may have already done so.
That’s exactly why I’m paying attention to this area.
Technically, DOGE is sitting near a major support zone that has acted as a floor multiple times in previous cycles. Momentum is deeply compressed, volatility has cooled off, and sentiment around the coin is probably the worst I’ve seen since the last bear market. Ironically, that’s usually when the market starts preparing for its next big move—not when everyone is bullish.
Fundamentally, nothing dramatic has changed.
DOGE is still one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, it continues to have one of the strongest retail communities in crypto, and it remains one of the first coins that attracts fresh capital whenever meme coins come back into focus. The problem is that hype alone can’t reverse a trend. The chart has to confirm it first.
This is why I’m not rushing to call a bottom.
If DOGE continues defending the $0.067-$0.070 region and momentum starts turning higher on the monthly timeframe, I’ll become much more interested. But if this support breaks, then this oversold reading becomes nothing more than another reminder that markets can always push further than people think.
My view is pretty simple.
DOGE looks closer to a bottom than a top.
But looking like a bottom and being the bottom are two completely different things.
The opportunity isn’t buying because the RSI is oversold.
The opportunity is buying when the market proves the sellers have finally run out of ammunition. That’s the confirmation I’m waiting for.
#USIranDealOrNoDeal

Bitcoin has now spent another month battling the 50-month EMA, and so far, that battle isn’t going in the bulls’ favour. Price continues to trade around one of the most important macro resistance levels on the chart, but instead of reclaiming it, Bitcoin keeps getting pushed back. That doesn’t mean the bull market is over—it simply means this higher-timeframe level is still demanding respect.
What catches my attention is how closely this structure continues to resemble 2022.
Back then, Bitcoin also produced strong relief rallies that convinced many traders the trend had finally changed, only to roll over after failing to reclaim major higher-timeframe resistance. So far, this cycle is following a remarkably similar path.
History doesn’t have to repeat itself, but until the market proves otherwise, it’s a roadmap worth paying attention to.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin hold these levels during the first part of August. Markets rarely reverse in a straight line, and periods of consolidation after a rejection are completely normal. In fact, that could be exactly what draws more buyers back in before the market makes its next decisive move. The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin can bounce—it’s whether that bounce can finally break through the 50-month EMA.
Seasonality also gives me a reason to stay cautious. August and September have historically been two of Bitcoin’s weaker months, especially when price enters them below major resistance. That doesn’t guarantee another decline, but it does increase the probability that any short-term strength could struggle to develop into a sustained trend. When historical seasonality aligns with technical resistance, I prefer to pay attention rather than dismiss it.
At the same time, this isn’t a market that looks completely broken. ETF demand remains healthy, long-term holders continue showing conviction, and institutional interest hasn’t disappeared. Those are all constructive signs for the bigger picture. The problem is that strong fundamentals don’t always translate into immediate price appreciation. Markets often need time before fundamentals are reflected on the chart.
For me, the next move is fairly straightforward. If Bitcoin continues rejecting from the 50-month EMA, then the comparison with 2022 becomes even more convincing, and a deeper correction remains on the table. But if buyers finally reclaim this level and turn it into support, the entire macro outlook changes. Until that happens, I think caution is still the smarter approach.
Sometimes the most important signal isn’t the rally itself.
It’s whether Bitcoin can finally break the level that has been holding it back for months.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC

Bitcoin has finally reached the 50-month EMA, exactly as anticipated last month.
Now comes the part that actually matters. Price isn’t just interacting with another moving average it’s testing one of the most important macro trend levels on the chart. The monthly close around this area will likely decide whether this recovery has real strength behind it or whether it’s simply another rally into resistance.
This is why I’m paying so much attention here.
The 50-month EMA has historically acted as a major trend filter throughout Bitcoin’s cycle. When price reclaims it and holds above it, momentum usually shifts back in favor of the bulls.
But when it rejects price, it often confirms that the broader trend hasn’t changed yet. That’s exactly the situation we’re walking into now.
What’s making this setup even more interesting is how closely Bitcoin continues to mirror the 2022 structure.
Back then, the market also produced aggressive relief rallies that convinced many traders the worst was over, only to run into higher-timeframe resistance before rolling over again. So far, this cycle continues to respect that roadmap surprisingly well.
That doesn’t automatically mean history has to repeat itself.
But markets have a habit of following familiar patterns until something meaningful changes. Right now, I don’t think that confirmation comes from a few green candles. It comes from Bitcoin reclaiming higher-timeframe resistance and proving buyers are willing to defend it over multiple monthly closes.
From a technical perspective, this is a textbook decision point. Momentum has improved from the recent lows, but price is now testing the exact level where bears would be expected to step back in. A rejection here would strengthen the argument that the market is still respecting the 2022 playbook. A clean reclaim, on the other hand, would be the first real sign that the macro trend is beginning to shift.
That’s why I’m not getting carried away by short-term price action.
The next few weekly and monthly closes will tell us far more than any single daily candle. Until Bitcoin either confirms the 50-month EMA as support or gets rejected from it, I think this remains a market that deserves patience more than prediction. Sometimes the biggest move isn’t the bounce itself it’s what happens at the level that everyone is watching.
#BTC走势分析

WHY IS EVERYONE EXPECTING LOWER PRICES?
Every market cycle has a moment where fear becomes louder than facts.
This chart highlights one of those moments.
Bitcoin’s long-term RSI has dropped into its deepest oversold zone, a level that has only appeared a handful of times in Bitcoin’s history. Previous signals occurred near major cycle lows around 2015 and 2022, both of which were followed by significant recoveries over time.
But here is what usually happens next.
When an asset becomes extremely oversold, most people do not become bullish. They become even more bearish. They convince themselves that because price has already fallen so much, it must fall even further.
That is exactly why market bottoms are so difficult to buy.
Markets rarely reward the majority at emotional extremes.
An oversold reading does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Strong downtrends can remain oversold for extended periods, which is why RSI should never be used in isolation. It becomes far more useful when combined with broader market structure, liquidity, and on-chain data.
The question is not whether Bitcoin can move lower in the short term. The better question is whether history suggests these conditions have offered attractive long-term opportunities.
So far, the answer has been yes.
The biggest mistake investors make is waiting for the perfect bottom. By the time the market confirms it, the opportunity is often gone.
Extreme fear creates uncomfortable decisions.
That is why the best long-term entries rarely feel obvious when they happen.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC