Muhammad talha Hasha

今日黃金價格橫盤整理，略有疲軟，因全球市場在近期大幅上漲後進入盤整階段。投資者情緒依然謹慎，獲利了結限制了主要交易時段的上行動能。
黃金市場主要受美元走勢、債券收益率和宏觀經濟預期的影響。儘管短期交易者選擇退場，但長期持倉保持穩定，使價格維持在較高水平。
📊 市場概覽
亞洲：由於買家避免追高，黃金開盤交易謹慎，價格接近高位。

今天黃金價格依然強勁，投資者在全球不確定性加劇以及2026年初經濟謹慎的背景下，持續尋求避險。這種貴金屬在去年創下歷史性的上漲後，繼續保持上升勢頭，受到地緣政治緊張局勢、利率下降預期以及美元走弱的支持。
市場參與者密切關注央行的政策，因爲對貨幣寬鬆的預期不斷增長，提升了黃金作爲無收益資產的吸引力。與此同時，持續的地緣政治風險正在強化黃金作爲應對不穩定性的對衝工具的角色，使國際市場的黃金需求保持韌性。

由於地緣政治風險的意外升級觸發了對避險資產的 renewed 需求，黃金價格在早期亞洲交易中上漲。這一舉動是在報告美國在委內瑞拉進行突然軍事行動後，其結果是罷免總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅，併爲已經脆弱的全球環境引入了新的不確定性。
現貨黃金上漲約1.8%，接近每盎司4,410美元，反映出近期尾部風險的快速重新定價。市場參與者似乎將頭寸轉向資本保值資產，將地緣政治不確定性置於傳統宏觀經濟或貨幣政策驅動因素之上。

2026年初黃金價格飆升，因美元走弱，降息希望上升
歐洲市場在2026年首個交易日週五看到黃金價格強勁上漲，因美元走弱和進一步降息的預期復興了投資者對黃金的需求。
現貨黃金上漲1.8%，至每盎司4,387.09美元，而美國黃金期貨上漲1.4%，至4,399.90美元，市場在年末假期後重新開放。
黃金在2025年最後幾天曾短暫回落至創紀錄高點，但在新年初，隨着對貨幣寬鬆的樂觀情緒重新出現，新的買入涌現。

黃金期貨在疲憊高點後進入週期轉換
黃金期貨顯示出明顯的週期轉換，遵循教科書式的VC PMI疲憊模式。最近的反彈在4584附近達到峯值，這是一個標誌着週期頂點的水平，儘管價格上漲，但上漲動能開始減弱。
這一高點與VC PMI阻力對稱和九平方諧波時機精確對齊，發出日益增加的下行風險信號。從週期的角度來看，價格完成了一個上部旋轉弧，這是一個通常與趨勢疲勞和買方力量減弱相關的階段。

In 2025, prediction markets stopped acting like a sideshow and started behaving like a real financial category.

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream
What began as a niche experiment in forecasting elections and sports quietly evolved into a multibillion-dollar ecosystem touching Wall Street, media giants, professional sports, and crypto infrastructure.

From regulatory victories and courtroom battles to record volumes, blockbuster fundraises, and mainstream media integrations, prediction markets spent 2025 elbowing their way into the center of the conversation—and mostly winning the fight.

A Strong Start, With Lawyers in the Background
The year opened with momentum already in motion. Polymarket entered January averaging more than $1 billion in monthly trading volume, riding engagement that never faded after the 2024 election cycle. Kalshi, meanwhile, leaned harder into sports and economic markets while preparing for legal tests that would define its future.

Those tests arrived quickly. In January, Kalshi found itself back in court challenging federal restrictions on political event contracts, while state regulators sharpened their knives. The legal uncertainty did little to slow participation, but it ensured that prediction markets would spend much of 2025 proving they belonged.

Regulation Tightens—Then Starts to Blink
By February, regulators were paying closer attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission scheduled public discussions around event contracts, signaling that prediction markets were no longer flying under the radar. State-level scrutiny intensified, setting the stage for clashes that would unfold over the spring.

March delivered both innovation and confrontation. Blockchain-native protocol Myriad launched with an onchain, non-custodial model using stablecoins, reinforcing prediction markets’ growing overlap with crypto rails. At the same time, New Jersey regulators issued a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi, accusing it of operating unlawful gambling markets.

Kalshi responded the way it would all year: by suing back.

Prediction Markets Had Their Breakout Year in 2025 — and There Was No Going Back

Courtrooms, Clarity, and a Federal Green Light
April marked a turning point. A federal judge blocked New Jersey’s enforcement action, siding—at least temporarily—with Kalshi’s argument that federal commodities law preempts state gambling statutes. Days later, the CFTC dropped its appeal in Kalshi’s election-contract case, effectively leaving a pro-market ruling intact.

The message was unmistakable: prediction markets had found firmer footing at the federal level, even if states continued to resist. Trading activity reflected that shift almost immediately, with Kalshi posting hundreds of millions in volume tied to fast-resolving sports events.

Growth Accelerates as Legal Fog Lifts
By May, participation accelerated. Kalshi reported weekly volumes approaching $1 billion, a staggering jump from the prior year. Sports accounted for most activity, but economics, crypto, and political markets quietly gained traction beneath the headline numbers.

Industry-wide, the tone changed. Venture capital interest deepened, institutional observers began framing prediction markets as information tools rather than novelty bets, and whispers of partnerships with mainstream platforms grew louder.

Deals, Integrations, and Wall Street Curiosity
June brought confirmation. Polymarket revealed it had acquired a small CFTC-licensed exchange to facilitate a U.S. return, a strategic move that signaled long-term intent rather than regulatory brinkmanship. Kalshi, meanwhile, inked a distribution partnership with Robinhood, pushing prediction markets directly into a retail trading app used by millions.

The subtext was clear: prediction markets were no longer content living at the edges of the internet.

Summer Funding and the Push Toward the U.S.
Throughout the summer, capital flowed in. Polymarket raised additional funding while preparing for its U.S. relaunch, attracting backers spanning crypto-native funds and traditional venture firms. Kalshi ramped marketing and expanded categories, even turning live odds into subway ads—a subtle flex that would have seemed absurd a few years earlier.

Behind the scenes, lawmakers debated whether these markets could serve public forecasting functions. No laws changed, but the conversation itself marked progress.

The U.S. Door Reopens
September delivered one of the year’s defining moments: Polymarket regained approval to operate in the United States. The timing aligned neatly with major sports seasons and renewed political speculation, pushing combined weekly volume across leading platforms past $2 billion.

State battles continued, but user growth did not wait for unanimous permission.

October’s Capital Floodgates Open
October was the month when prediction markets went unmistakably big. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company in rarefied territory and cementing Wall Street’s interest in event-driven data.

Kalshi followed with a massive funding round of its own, pushing its valuation into fintech’s upper tier. At the same time, Google began integrating prediction market data into search and finance tools, ensuring millions would encounter probabilistic forecasts whether they asked for them or not.

November Sets Records Across the Board
November shattered expectations. Combined platform volumes reached historic highs, with industry-wide trading estimated at roughly $44 billion for the year. Kalshi and Polymarket each cleared multibillion-dollar monthly totals, while new competitors crossed billion-dollar weekly thresholds.

Major media outlets followed suit. Yahoo Finance integrated prediction market data directly into its pages, while CNN prepared on-air odds segments. Sports partnerships expanded, including high-profile deals with the NHL and UFC, pushing prediction markets into live broadcasts.

Prediction Markets Had Their Breakout Year in 2025 — and There Was No Going Back

December Brings Expansion—and Competition
By December, prediction markets were no longer alone. Draftkings launched a federally compliant prediction app in dozens of states, validating the regulatory path pioneered earlier in the year. A newly launched competitor, Myriad, integrated directly into a major crypto wallet, bringing event trading into a native Web3 environment.

The year closed with optimism, but not without tension. State-level resistance persisted, and lawsuits lingered. Still, participation broadened beyond sports, with economics, tech, and politics showing the fastest growth rates.

A New Asset Class Finds Its Place$BTC
By year’s end, prediction markets looked less like a curiosity and more like an emerging asset class. They blended regulated exchanges, blockchain settlement, real-time data, and crowd-based forecasting into something difficult to ignore—and increasingly difficult to stop.

If 2025 proved anything, it’s that prediction markets are done asking whether they belong. The only remaining question is how far they push next.$BTC

“Bitcoin will one day overtake gold.” — President Trump
What once sounded impossible is now unfolding.
Digital scarcity vs. physical metal.$BTC
History is being written.
$BTC #GOLD

$BNB just proved it once again.

Price spent time cooling off and building a solid base. No panic, no forced moves. And the moment buyers stepped back in, the recovery started — clean, controlled, and healthy.

That bounce from the lower zone clearly shows strong buyer interest. Those who stayed calm instead of reacting emotionally are already seeing the reward.

The chart still looks strong: • Higher lows are forming
• Momentum is gradually rebuilding
• Buyers remain active after a healthy pullback

As long as $BNB holds above its key support zone, the upside remains open.

Trade View – Bullish structure intact
– Buyers in control
– Further upside likely if momentum continues

Sometimes the market needs time.
But when the move comes — it pays big.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined$BNB
Let the chart do the work. 📈

Bitcoin traders are on alert ahead of Thursday’s US CPI release as markets rethink interest-rate expectations following comments from Fed Governor Stephen Miran.$BTC
Miran argued that inflation is closer to the Fed’s 2% target than headline data suggests, saying much of the remaining pressure comes from statistical distortions, not real demand. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price a 75.6% chance of no rate change at the January 2026 Fed meeting, reinforcing a softer long-term rate outlook.$BTC
He pointed to lagging shelter inflation and portfolio management fees as factors overstating price pressures, warning the Fed risks keeping policy too tight for too long.
Miran also downplayed the inflation impact of US tariffs, estimating consumer prices are affected by only around 0.2%, while forward-looking indicators suggest renewed disinflation in the months ahead.
With CPI due Thursday, Bitcoin volatility could spike if data supports the case for earlier or deeper rate cuts — a scenario that would strengthen the bullish macro backdrop for $BTC .

Ethereum is stuck! 😩 We're seeing some serious volatility right now, trapped between $3,051 and $3,272, and there's no clear direction.$ETH

​The good news? The bulls are holding the line at $3,000. If we can punch through and stay above $3,200, I'm eyeing a rally toward $3,400 (especially if the institutions jump in).$ETH

​The bad news? A dip below that $3,000 floor could send ETH sliding back toward $2,800. This Fed/macro uncertainty combined with low liquidity is definitely fueling the downside risk. Stay safe out there!

​#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoMarket #Write2Earn #cryptofirst

​$STG successfully broke out to 0.1395 and has since settled near the 0.131 level.

​The current pullback remains shallow relative to the initial breakout leg.
​Key Insight: As long as the price respects the 0.128 area, this appears to be a phase of consolidation, rather than a sign of underlying weakness.$STG