ScalpingX TG Channel

📊 WINRATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated to 2025-12-06

Daily win-rate data from the scalping community shows that the FGI–winrate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.16). Winrate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” zone is still the riskiest area for performance.

🔍 Quick interpretation

Extreme Fear (<20) still has the highest average winrate, but the sample size is small, so it should be treated as a reference signal only. Fear (20–<40) keeps a slightly higher-than-average performance. Neutral (40–60) hovers around the overall mean. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags winrate down sharply and remains the most “blow-up friendly” environment if R:R is pushed too aggressively.

📉 Average winrate by FGI band (with number of days)

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.94% — n=203

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.19% — n=142

😟 Fear (20–<40): 46.00% — n=133

😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 47.99% — n=19

Share of days beating the 45.18% average winrate by band:

Extreme Greed 12.00% • Greed 43.84% • Neutral 47.18% • Fear 57.14% • Extreme Fear 73.68%.

📈 Implications for scalping

➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, prioritize early profit-taking when momentum fades; avoid increasing size just because the market looks “euphoric”.

➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; don’t stretch TP too far out of FOMO, because the performance gap between Fear/Neutral/Greed is not large enough to justify a full strategy shift.

➤ FGI <20: the sample is thicker but still limited; treat this zone with care, as a potentially good profit environment where the main focus should still be trade management and drawdown control.

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$ON - Mcap 16.79M$ - 81%/ 795 votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 2.12%. The uptrend is in the 161st cycle, with an increase amplitude of 11.70%.

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$USTC - Mcap 49.98M$ - 89%/ 63.7K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 1.76%. The downtrend is in the 234th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 12.69%.

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$KO - 市值 3.3M$ - 82%/ 955 票 看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的空頭訂單。進入點位於 HVN 內，並滿足積極簡化條件，之前有一個非常盈利的待處理空頭訂單，預計止損在 1.92% 左右。下行趨勢處於第 89 週期，下降幅度爲 9.32%。

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Update as of 2025-12-06, community-wide trading data:

🔹The average win rate is 45.18%

🔹The day with the highest win rate was 2025-07-20 at 65.03%. The day with the lowest win rate was 2025-03-28 at 29.38%

🔹The weekday with the highest average win rate is Saturday at 45.85%. The weekday with the lowest average win rate is Monday at 44.35%

🔹The 7-day period with the highest average win rate ended on 2025-07-22 at 56.98%. The lowest 7-day period ended on 2025-03-12 at 36.64%

🔹The number of days with a win rate above average is 249. The number of days with a win rate at or below average is 273

🔹The number of days with a win rate above 50% is 95. The number of days with a win rate between 40% and 50% is 333. The number of days with a win rate below 40% is 94

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$FOLKS - 市值 157.1M$ - 87%/ 1.4K 投票看漲

SC02 M1 - 待定多頭訂單。入場在LVN內，不受任何弱區影響，預計止損約爲3.29%。上升趨勢處於第282個週期，幅度增加爲20.29%。

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$B2 - 市值 36.26M$ - 87%/ 4.4K 投票看漲

SC02 M1 - 待處理的多頭訂單。入場位於LVN內，不受任何弱區影響，預計止損約爲1.31%。上升趨勢處於第265個週期，增加幅度爲12.65%。

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$PENGU - Mcap 718.76M$ - 75%/ 376.4K 投票 看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的多頭訂單。入場點位於HVN內，滿足正簡化條件，之前有一筆非常盈利的多頭訂單，預計止損在1.45%左右。當前上升趨勢處於第141個週期，幅度增加爲8.63%。

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對於即將解鎖的50個代幣的時間表，我個人只在懸崖解鎖事件時關注交易期貨，當解鎖金額大於每日交易量的25%時。如果你對長期投資感興趣，你應該關注這些事件，以優化每次解鎖後的入場點。

目前，有5個解鎖事件值得關注，它們的解鎖金額相對於每日交易量較高：

$LINEA - 市值 124.73M$ - 85%/ 20.6K 票看漲

$AGI - 市值 27.44M$ - 92%/ 23.7K 票看漲

$PEAQ - 市值 59.69M$ - 89%/ 82.1K 票看漲

$STRK - 市值 538.87M$ - 69%/ 47K 票看漲

$ZK - 市值 298.94M$ - 82%/ 49.4K 票看漲

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$ARIA - 市值 16.18M$ - 84%/ 940 票看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的多頭訂單。入場位於 LVN 內部，不受任何弱區的影響，預計止損約爲 2.14%。上漲趨勢處於第 130 個週期，幅度增加爲 10.25%。

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$MUBARAK - 市值 17.9M$ - 73%/ 34.5K 投票 看漲

SC02 M5 - 待定的多頭訂單。入場點位於 LVN 之內，不受任何弱區的影響，預計止損在 2.40% 左右。上漲趨勢處於第 241 週期，增幅爲 19.20%。

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$ALLO - Mcap 33.18M$ - 81%/ 2.7K 投票看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的多頭訂單。進入點位於 LVN 內部，且不受任何弱區域影響，預測止損約為 1.28%。上升趨勢在第 140 週期，增幅為 8.87%。

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$CLO - 市值 57.51M$ - 72%/ 1K 投票 看漲

SC02 M1 - 待定多頭訂單。入場點位於 HVN 之內，並滿足正簡化條件，之前有一筆非常盈利的多頭訂單，預計止損大約在 1.50%。上漲趨勢處於第 184 週期，增幅爲 14.53%。

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$NOT - 市值 67.03M$ - 84%/ 136.1K 票數看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的多單。進入點位於 LVN 內，且不受任何弱區影響，預測止損在 5.17% 左右。上漲趨勢在第 162 週期，增幅為 31.44%.

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$DOOD - Mcap 44.17M$ - 86%/ 7.8K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - the Long order has been triggered, with no significant profit yet. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the stop-loss is 2.17%. The uptrend has lasted for 456 cycles, with an increase amplitude of 33.34%.

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$FHE - Mcap 7.92M$ - 82%/ 4.7K 投票 看漲

SC02 M1 - 待處理的多頭訂單。入場位於LVN內，不受任何弱區影響，預計止損約爲9.01%。上漲趨勢在第129個週期，增幅爲50.38%。

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$VINE - 市值 31.56M$ - 83%/ 91.8K 票數 看漲

SC02 M1 - 待定的多頭訂單。進場包括POC，且不受任何弱區影響，預計止損約為 1.86%。上升趨勢在第 225 週期，增幅為 10.30%。

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$WIN - 市值 32.71M$ - 92%/ 31.4K 投票 看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的多頭訂單。入場位於 LVN 內部，不受任何弱區影響，預計止損約爲 5.53%。上漲趨勢處於第 98 個週期，增幅爲 25.85%。

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$RONIN - Mcap 131.4M$ - 89%/ 15K 投票 看漲

SC02 M1 - 待定的多頭訂單。入場位於LVN內，不受任何弱區影響，預計止損約爲2.52%。上漲趨勢處於第203個週期，增幅爲19.18%。

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$THE - Mcap 23.43M$ - 83%/ 41.9K 投票看漲

SC02 M5 - 待處理的多頭訂單。進入點位於 LVN 之內，並不受任何弱區影響，預計止損在約 3.89%。上升趨勢在第 235 週期，增幅為 30.81%。

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