Bitcoin Flashing Traditional Accumulation Signals (Altseason Ahead?)
Bitcoin appears to be forming a bottom, though some downside may still remain. Strong hands are likely accumulating BTC — and especially altcoins.
Introduction
Bitcoin is showing multiple historical accumulation signals. However, this downtrend has been gradual and relatively low in volatility, making it feel less like a traditional bear market. Similarly, the previous bull market didn’t feel like a classic parabolic cycle for many traders accustomed to extreme crypto volatility.
The Weekly Signals
Several key indicators suggest accumulation:
Weekly NVT is green – Historically, when NVT turns green, Bitcoin has been in a bottoming structure. Since NVT is based on the Quantity Theory of Money, it implies BTC may be undervalued relative to transaction activity.
Price below the slow MA of the Pi-Cycle Bottom – The Pi-Cycle Bottom, which was engineered to identify major BTC bottoms, typically signals reversals when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA. For this to happen, price must be below both MAs — which is currently the case.
Price below the Weekly Gaussian Channel – Historically, strong hands accumulate when BTC trades below this channel.
⚠️ Important: The Pi-Cycle Bottom hasn’t officially flashed a bottom yet, and the Gaussian Channel hasn’t turned red. This suggests we could still see further downside and extended time in the accumulation zone.
$BTC Monthly Chart
Accumulation historically occurs when D- crosses above D+.
Bollinger Band width has compressed, and price is approaching support near the lower band.
In prior bear markets, #BTC didn’t always tag the lower band — though it did in the last cycle. We may see it again, but it's not guaranteed.
ETH/BTC – Macro Structure
This remains one of the strongest macro alt indicators.
A large double bottom is forming.
As long as ETH/BTC remains within this structure and hasn’t reached the 1.618 extension, I remain macro bullish on $ETH and alts.