Top Move

在當前的加密市場中，敘事顯然正在發生變化。關注點不再僅限於短期價格激增或引人注目的TPS數字。相反，注意力正轉向可靠性、一致性和現實世界的可用性。這就是XPL在近期討論中開始獲得相關性的地方。
在過去的幾周裏，市場情緒對能夠在壓力下運行的區塊鏈表現出越來越大的興趣。在這種背景下，XPL脫穎而出，因爲其設計優先考慮在網絡高峯活動期間的穩定性能。XPL強調可預測的執行，而不是僅僅在理想條件下優化速度，這對於面向支付和企業級用例至關重要。

In February 2026, as #bitcoin reels from a brutal crash—plunging to $60,000 on February 5 before rebounding above $68,000—the age-old debate resurfaces: Are Bitcoin's famed four-year cycles still alive, or have they finally met their demise? For over a decade, these cycles have dictated the cryptocurrency's boom-and-bust patterns, tied inextricably to its halving events. Yet, with institutional adoption, ETFs, and maturing markets reshaping the landscape, analysts are split. Some declare the cycle "dead," evolved into a more sustained growth trajectory, while others see eerie similarities to past bears, suggesting the rhythm persists. This article delves into the mechanics of these cycles, their historical track record, and whether 2026 marks their evolution or extinction, drawing on recent data and expert insights.
What Are Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles?
Bitcoin's four-year cycles refer to recurring patterns of price behavior, roughly aligning with its halving events every 210,000 blocks—or about four years. These cycles typically unfold in phases:
Accumulation: A period of sideways or gradual recovery post-bear market, where "smart money" buys in.
Bull Run: Explosive price growth, often 1-2 years post-halving, driven by hype and FOMO.
Peak and Correction: Overheating leads to a sharp crash, erasing 70-80%+ of gains.
Bear Market and Readjustment: Prolonged consolidation, shaking out weak hands before the next halving.
A simple analogy: It's like a four-year heartbeat—starting slow after a "halving shock," accelerating into euphoria, then contracting in despair before recovering. Historically, this has repeated across cycles, with each bull peak dwarfing the last.
Why Do They Happen?
The cycles stem from Bitcoin's core design: a fixed supply of 21 million coins, with issuance halved periodically to mimic scarcity like gold.
Halving Mechanism: Every four years, miner rewards drop by 50% (e.g., from 6.25 $BTC in 2020 to 3.125 BTC in 2024), reducing new supply entering the market. This creates a "supply shock," theoretically driving prices up if demand holds steady.
Market Psychology: Halvings act as psychological anchors, sparking speculation and media buzz. As prices rise, retail FOMO amplifies gains; fear then triggers sell-offs.
Economic Parallels: Cycles mirror broader business cycles—expansion, peak, contraction, recovery—fueled by liquidity, adoption waves, and external factors like regulations or macro events.
Users note how halvings create "significant psychological events," defining trading narratives. Without halvings, Bitcoin's inflation would mimic fiat currencies; instead, it enforces deflationary pressure, theoretically boosting value over time.
Historical Evidence: A Track Record of Booms and Busts
Bitcoin's cycles have been remarkably consistent:
Data shows post-halving years often deliver massive gains (e.g., +300% in 2021), followed by corrections. However, drawdowns remain severe, with "Bitcoin is dead" narratives cycling predictably—477 times by some counts.
The Current Cycle in 2026: Signs of Life or Mutation?
Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin surged to $126,000 in 2025 but has since corrected 50%, aligning with cycle norms. Metrics like the Puell Multiple (around 1-2) suggest mid-cycle stability, not capitulation. Users debate a potential "relief bounce" before deeper lows, with some projecting peaks in mid-2026 or October. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer notes a "lame 2026" if the cycle holds, with bears echoing 2018/2022 patterns.
Yet, deviations abound: Diminishing returns (post-halving +18% vs. historical +300%), ETF inflows buffering supply shocks, and correlations to macros (e.g., Fed policies, gold surges) suggest evolution.
Are the Cycles Dead? Arguments For and Against
Arguments for Death or Evolution:
Institutional Dominance: ETFs and corporates (e.g., MicroStrategy) create a "consistent bid," reducing volatility. Cycles may stretch to five years or become "supercycles." +2 K33 Research declares "the 4-year cycle is dead," citing structural changes like derivatives markets.
Maturation: As Bitcoin behaves like gold (correlation ~0.85), halvings lose impact with only ~1.8% annual inflation left. Epoch Ventures predicts $150K by year-end, ending the cycle.
Arguments Against:
Persistence: 2026's 40-50% drawdown mirrors past corrections; Fidelity sees the cycle "intact." History "rhymes," per Mark Twain.
Psychological Inertia: FUD cycles repeat—"Bitcoin is dead" headlines at every dip, regardless of price.
On-Chain Support: Low metrics signal accumulation, with halvings still anchoring narratives. "The 4yr Bitcoin cycle is dead? Well... MAYBE it is... But it sure as hell hasn't been broken yet."
Conclusion: Evolving, Not Extinct
Bitcoin's four-year cycles, born from halvings and psychology, have shaped its history but face disruption in 2026. While institutional forces may lengthen or dampen them—potentially birthing supercycles—the current bear echoes past patterns, proving the cycle's resilience. The 4 Year Cycle Is DEAD!! What It Means For Crypto In 2026!!"—yet data whispers otherwise. Investors should monitor halvings as guides, not gospel, blending cycle awareness with macro vigilance. In crypto's maturing world, history rhymes, but the tune is changing.

人工智能營銷者並不像人類那樣與區塊鏈互動。他們不會打開錢包應用程序、批准彈出窗口或管理種子短語。相反，人工智能系統需要始終在線的、合規的、全球支付基礎設施，能夠以編程方式和大規模結算價值。這就是爲什麼支付是任何人工智能就緒區塊鏈的基礎要求——也是爲什麼@Vanarchain 的方法正在引起關注。

Vanar Chain 旨在圍繞實際金融活動設計，現在不再是實驗性演示。它的結構專注於快速的最終性、可預測的低費用，以及能夠支持自主營銷者、企業和機器驅動交易的基礎設施。在一個以人工智能爲先的全球中，價值轉移必須是無縫的、可靠的，並且符合監管要求——這些是投機鏈條經常忽視的特性。

專爲實際國際賬單和穩定幣基礎設施而構建，而不僅僅是用於投機用途。Plasma 的設計旨在實現快速結算和低費用交易，專注於使鏈上賬單對普通用戶、商戶和開發者更爲實用。其突出特點之一是對穩定幣優先轉賬的支持，允許在沒有通常限制加密貨幣採用的波動性的情況下無縫移動支付。憑藉全面的 EVM 兼容性，開發者可以輕鬆設置現有智能合約和以支付爲目標的去中心化應用，同時利用 Plasma 的優化執行層。安全性和性能通過其架構得到了增強，而本地 $XPL 代幣在交易費用、質押和長期社區可持續性方面發揮着重要作用。隨着全球對更快、更便宜和更透明的數字賬單的需求增長，@Plasma 正在將自己定位爲下一代鏈上金融的核心基礎設施。與追逐炒作週期不同，Plasma 正在構建支持區塊鏈上真實金融活動的軌道。 #plasma

許多人進入Web3，認爲找到一份工作或發現改變生活的alpha只是時間的問題。幾個月變成了幾年。圖表不斷變化，機會似乎無窮無盡，但真正的進展依然遙不可及。
我所學到的很簡單：Web3的增長不僅僅是關於信息或交易。它關乎接近。
與建設者們在一起，積極創造、分享知識並相互支持的人，會改變你對這個領域的看法，以及你在其中成長的速度。你開始理解事物是如何運作的，而不僅僅是瞭解什麼是流行的。

如果你超過18歲，請慢慢閱讀。
接下來的6到12個月將比過去10年加起來更重要。
並不是因爲一切都很好 —
而是因爲一切仍在崩潰。
而這正是創造真正財富的方式。
每個人現在都相信的謊言
“市場已經觸底。”
“痛苦結束了。”
“只需買入下跌。”
這種信念是危險的。
股票仍然處於歷史極端估值。
壓力在加劇，而不是減輕。
比特幣尚未正式觸底。
接下來可能會發生的事情是沒人想象的部分：