GEMINI

在2025年11月第一次劇烈下跌期間，市場非常積極地吸收了大量拋售，類似於我們在LUNA和FTX崩潰後看到的情況。買家以強烈的信念介入，反彈迅速而果斷。

相比之下，最近下跌到$60k確實顯示出一些積累，但反應顯然較弱。反彈缺乏緊迫感和強勁的跟進，這表明買家信心不如之前的清算階段那麼強。

Still Extreme Fear 👀

跌至$60,000對那些以往在波動中持有的投資者造成了嚴重的心理壓力，這類似於2022年5月LUNA崩盤時的恐懼。在這兩種情況下，長期持有者SOPR的7天EMA在保持在1以上一到兩年後跌破1。這樣的轉變很少見。這基本上意味着長期持有者開始以虧損的方式出售，這表明信心顯著下降，通常在熊市的更深階段中可見。

STH SOPR is back above 1.0, which means short term holders are selling in profit again. But MVRV is still about 17% below its normal level, so the market is still carrying a lot of unrealized losses. That means any price bounce can face selling pressure from holders who just want to exit at breakeven. Short term strength is there but the bigger structural pressure hasn’t gone away yet.

#Bitcoin’s recent pullback seems to be opening the door for serious long term buyers. CryptoQuant’s accumulator addresses are now purchasing at an average pace of around 372,000 BTC per month, compared to just 10,000 BTC per month in September 2024.

That jump is significant. These wallets are classified under strict rules, with no outflows and with exchange and miner addresses excluded, which helps keep the data reliable. While short term participants react to price swings, this group appears focused on steadily increasing exposure for the long run.

#Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has fallen back to the 0.92-0.94 range, which historically reflects strong bear market pressure. Since the metric is below 1, it shows that most investors are selling at a loss, usually driven by fear and capitulation. In previous cycles, this zone has appeared during periods of heavy volatility and deep corrections, and in some cases, near major market bottoms.

With #Bitcoin trading at $68.8K, it is currently below the Short Term Holder cost basis at $90.9K, the Active Investors mean at $85.8K, and the True Market Mean at $79.0K, which shows that most recent and active participants are sitting at a loss. However, price is still above the Realized Price at $54.9K, meaning the broader market structure remains intact and long term holders are still in profit.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

For the first time ever, #Bitcoin has posted back to back losses in January and February. It’s an unusual start to the year and shows that the market is under pressure early on.

在這次下跌中，大型#Bitcoin 持有者正在積極購買，過去30天的交易所餘額約下降3.2%。隨著硬幣轉移到冷錢包，這減少了交易所的可用供應，可能會緊縮流動性。

散戶投資者仍然謹慎，但聰明的資金正在悄悄積累。如果需求在供應仍然有限的情況下上升，可能會造成強大的上行壓力，並為下一個擴張階段鋪平道路。

#Bitcoin is still around 50% below its all-time high, and history shows it could even drop 70-80% before a true bottom forms. But instead of focusing only on how low it can go, it’s smarter to start watching where strong support and real demand might step in.

On chain data shows long term holders aren’t heavily selling and signs of capitulation are slowly appearing, which often happens near cycle lows. No one can predict the exact bottom but this is usually the phase where smart money prepares quietly while fear dominates the market.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

The estimated average entry price of active #Bitcoin holders is around $73,000, excluding investors who have held their coins for more than seven years since they are no longer actively participating and some of that supply may even be lost.

With Bitcoin currently trading near $70,000, the price is below the cost basis of these active investors, a situation that has mostly occurred during the later stages of past bear markets. If Bitcoin can climb back above this level and hold it, that would be an early positive sign that market conditions may be improving.

Right now price is trading between $55K and $79.2K, which looks similar to the structure we saw in early 2022. The market is likely to keep moving sideways within this range as new buyers slowly accumulate supply. A real shift would need something big, either a strong move back above $79.2K to confirm renewed strength or a major shock that pushes price below $55K. Without a strong catalyst, consolidation inside this range is the most probable path in the mid term.

A sharp wave of volatility swept through the crypto market in the last 24 hours, leading to 104,633 trader liquidations and total losses of $319.28 million. The largest single liquidation took place on Binance, where a #SOL/USDT position worth $4.21 million was closed out.

7D SMA #Bitcoin 基準在期貨溢價下降後重新回到中立狀態。這意味著槓桿多頭需求已減弱，交易者正在降低風險。市場不再對激進的風險偏好進行定價。衍生品目前並未推高價格。要使多頭重新掌控，需有更強的現貨購買需求。沒有真正的現貨需求，向上的動能可能會保持有限。

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Dealers are short gamma between 58k and 74k, with the largest concentration around 63k. In this setup, their hedging activity tends to amplify moves rather than absorb them. If price rises they have to buy more and if it falls they have to sell more, which reinforces the direction. That makes the market more sensitive to breakouts, especially on the downside and increases the chance of sharp, fast reactions once key levels break.

市場目前正在回調，但長期結構仍然保持穩定。長期持有者的成本基礎持續上升，目前約爲$38.2K，顯示出長期持有者在更高水平上進行積累。與此同時，實際價格正在下降，接近$55.0K。

如果這種模式繼續，兩個指標可能會壓縮到下一個季度$43K和$51K之間的關鍵支撐區間。該區間可能會成爲市場下一個重大走勢的關鍵決策區。

Selling pressure on Coinbase continues to hold. The Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed negative for its longest stretch since November 2024, showing that sellers are still dominating and demand remains weak on the platform.