Bitcoin Sell-Off Reflects Lost Conviction, Says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analysts attribute Bitcoin's decline to institutional ETF outflows, reduced liquidity, and stalled regulatory progress rather than a single macroeconomic shock. The German lender characterized the move as a slow erosion of conviction across institutional and regulatory fronts.
Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon wrote that the current phase represents a reset, testing whether Bitcoin can mature beyond belief-driven gains and regain support from regulation and institutional capital. The bank identified three primary forces weighing on the asset: sustained institutional outflows, breakdown in traditional market relationships, and loss of regulatory momentum.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded heavy outflows since October, including more than $7 billion in November, roughly $2 billion in December, and over $3 billion in January. As institutions reduce exposure, trading volumes thinned, leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable to sharp price movements. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell back toward Extreme Fear levels.
Deutsche Bank surveys show U.S. consumer crypto adoption declining to around 12%, down from 17% in mid-2025. This data signals enthusiasm fading beyond Wall Street as sentiment deteriorates. Bitcoin has diverged from both gold and equities, leaving it exposed in a risk-off environment.
Gold rallied more than 60% in 2025 on persistent central bank buying and flight-to-safety demand, while Bitcoin struggled with multiple monthly declines. The asset fell more than 40% from October 2025 highs, posting its fourth consecutive monthly decline, a streak not seen since before the pandemic. Correlations with both equities and gold eroded.
Bitcoin's correlation with equities dropped to the mid-teens, far below levels typical of earlier macro-driven sell-offs when it moved in lockstep with tech stocks. While gold gained 65% in 2025, Bitcoin fell 6.5%, undermining its digital gold narrative. The asset trades in isolation as broader markets stabilize.
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