DegenShiro

如果你是加密貨幣新手，這裏有些你必須學習並理解的內容。與$BTC 減半事件相關的超級週期。

繼續閱讀，瞭解過去週期的表現，以便爲下一輪牛市做規劃。

什麼是減半？
- 每 210,000 個區塊（約 4 年），礦工獎勵會減半。在需求不變的情況下，流入市場的新幣更少。這一事件就叫減半。

週期拆解：
從歷史上看，比特幣通常會在減半事件後約 12 到 18 個月達到週期頂部。

- 2012 年減半（第 1 週期）：用了 368 天，在 2013 年 11 月達到 1,127 美元的歷史最高價。

- 2016 年減半（第 2 週期）：用了 525 天，在 2017 年 12 月達到 19,665 美元的歷史最高價。

- 2020 年減半（第 3 週期）：用了 549 天，在 2021 年 11 月達到 69,044 美元的歷史最高價。

- 2024 年減半（第 4 週期）：大約用了 534 天，在 2025 年 10 月達到 126,198 美元的峯值。}

這實際上教會你的三件事：
- 時機會聚集。成熟週期通常在減半後約 17–18 個月見頂，不是減半當週，也不是 3 年後。

- 收益在壓縮。從減半時點開始，大約是 ~95 倍 → ~30 倍 → ~8 倍 → ~2 倍。市場越大，倍數越小。要按這個來規劃，而不是按 2013 年的情況。

- 時間鐘有兩個作用。吸籌發生在暴漲暴跌後的安靜階段。派發發生在大家已經開始談論下一個歷史高點的時候。大多數人恰好相反。

保存這條，等你之後想規劃你的吸籌/交易/投資/止盈離場策略時再回來看看。

下一輪牛市再感謝我吧 🙏

IF you were wondering what caused the rally in recent months and what is the flywheel behind it. $ZEC

Here's a quick TLDR:
1) ZEC mining is very profitable today for efficient Equihash ASICs, but that margin will likely compress as hashrate and difficulty catch up.

2) The rally is a reflexive mix of privacy/institutional-access narrative, new Base utility, momentum, and short-covering.

3) Rally flywheel:
- Institutional/privacy framing: Grayscale research and reported ZEC-product trading access have made ZEC the liquid privacy trade.

- New utility: official Zcash posts confirmed cbZEC availability on Base, adding EVM/DeFi distribution.

- Momentum: ZEC broke $1,000 after a very high-volume move, which pulled in retail attention and narrative buyers.

- Derivatives squeeze: Binance futures open interest rose from roughly $438M to $614M in a day while account positioning remains net short; forced covers amplified the move.

- Social reflexivity: "private Bitcoin," fixed 21M supply, and emerging Zcash-native meme/DeFi activity are attracting more speculative flow.

Near term, the move is extended: weekly RSI is about 75 and yearly RSI about 79. Binance funding is elevated, so a reversal can be violent.

Immediate resistance is about $1,020-$1,030; first supports are about $980 and then $935-$960.

Current read: ZEC price about $993 global aggregate; Binance spot about $994. 24h / 30d move +19.6% / +92.4%.

The important caveat: today's ZEC payout is unusually attractive because price rose much faster than mining difficulty.

More miners switching on = More secure and Privacy protection
HOWEVER, new Z15-class machines shipping - will dilute coins earned per machine.

Treat current profitability as a spot condition, not a durable ROI assumption.

比特幣剛剛衝到 81,275 美元。我並不認爲這意味着一個新的週期。我看到的是一次對我一直在關注的關鍵水平的測試。

如果你關注我的工作，這就是我想讓你看到的更新。
- 爲什麼它會上漲、我認爲接下來會發生什麼，以及我如何在 9 月 4 日的就業報告前標記風險。

我仍然相信，我們處於同一個 4 年週期，只是加入了 ETF。並不是一個全新的 ETF 時代週期。

僅僅因爲市場對美聯儲降息/政策轉向的希望在一天之內推動了上漲，這並不會改變我對它的看法。

下面是我對市場的解讀。
比特幣在 24 小時內上漲了 5.04%，至 81,275 美元。其他加密資產也隨之上漲。在我看來，這更像是一次宏觀因素驅動的行情。

比特幣現在與標普 500 的走勢幾乎同步，相關性大約達到 97%。這通常意味着是利率因素在起作用，而不是加密內部邏輯突然發生了變化。

在我看來，主要原因是：美聯儲目前看起來不太可能加息，因此風險資產獲得了買盤。

第二個原因是空頭擠壓。超過 4.15 億美元的空頭頭寸被清算。這會讓價格迅速上衝。但僅憑這一點，並不能說明趨勢已經改變。

這就是爲什麼 81k–82.5k 美元對我很重要。我要等到周線收在 82.5k 美元上方，纔會把這看作趨勢成立。我們現在只是觸及了這個區域。

我現在是怎麼操作的
如果比特幣守在 78,500 美元上方，我接下來會關注 83,000 到 86,000 美元。
如果跌破 76,000 美元，我會看向 72,000 美元。

如果比特幣本週收盤站上 82.5k 美元並且買盤持續出現，那我的判斷就是錯的。

我接下來重點關注的是 9 月 4 日的 8 月就業報告。

那份數據可能在一個早晨就改變美聯儲敘事。
只有當比特幣本週收於 82.5k 美元上方並守住時，我纔會更看多。在那之前，我會保持耐心。跌破 76k 美元后，我會變得更防禦。

你把這次行情看作同一個 4 年週期，還是一個新的 ETF 時代週期？

你會如何把 82.5k 美元這一水平納入明天的就業數據前的判斷？非投資建議。

Are we in a new cycle, or the same 4-year supercycle with ETFs bolted on?

If you are deciding whether to treat September as a new bull, wait for alts, or stay in BTC, read my research >>>

You will get a cycle verdict, the levels that confirm or kill it, and what has to happen before altseason is real.

My verdict: This still looks like the old post-halving clock with a new bid, not a rewritten supercycle.
ETFs and treasuries changed who buys. They have not yet proven that drawdowns stay shallow, that mid-cycle bears disappear, or that alts follow a new playbook.

Why that is the base case BTC is ~$78k after a ~25% August bounce. Still ~38% below the Oct 6, 2025 high near $126k.
Total crypto market cap is ~$2.6–2.7T versus the Oct 2025 peak near $4.8T.
That $4.8T line is the real “new regime” test. US spot BTC ETFs took in ~$3.5B in August, the best month of 2026. That repaired the tape.

September already started softer. Watch weekly net flow, not AUM. Inflows buy coins. Outflows sell them.
BTC still runs the market. Dominance is mid-to-high 50s. That is leadership, not rotation.
Alts only matter when BTC is rising and dominance rolls over from strength.
Dominance falling while BTC falls is a flush.

Strategy is a leverage channel, not a central bank. ~845k BTC, mNAV back near 1.1x.
They can buy when the premium works and have already sold to defend the stack.

The map Resistance: weekly close above $81–82.5k.
Support: $76k, then $70k, then the 200-week near $65.5k.

3 scenarios:
1) Bull / new-regime: weekly close >$82.5k + ETF buying holds. Then $90k, then $100k is a trend talk. Alts wait for dominance to roll over from strength.

2) Base / old clock: $65–82k into Q4. August was repair, not confirmation.

3) Bear: lose $76k, then $70k

If you enjoyed my research on macro trends, join me on my journey navigating the upcoming market!