Crypto Assets Manager

Extreme Fear Drags BTC Down

Extreme Fear Drags BTC Down Weekly close under $60K or above $70K?
BTC
3.74%

· 9h
BTC$BTC’s action this week is telling, not because it’s bullish, but because it speaks to sentiment exhaustion.

We just saw the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on CoinMarketCap hit some of its lowest levels of the year, and over the last 90 days has barely budged out of extreme pessimism.

Yesterday: Extreme Fear - 8

Last Week: Extreme Fear - 5

On December 15, 2018, BTC reached a low of $3,023 while the Fear & Greed Index registered 11.

On March 17, 2020, BTC hit $3,897 with the index at 8.

On June 18, 2022, BTC fell to $17,420, with the index reading 6.

Most recently, on February 12, 2026, BTC traded around $67,293 while the Fear & Greed Index showed 5.

These readings aren’t noise. They reflect a market that’s been grinding lower with minimal conviction.

Since the recent breakdown attempts, BTC$BTC has been dancing between key levels. The real story now is in the weekly close dynamics, will we confirm sub-60K pressure, or find enough support to push back toward 70K?

Here’s what stands out: The Fear & Greed Index signaling extreme fear often precedes volatility compressions, not immediate rallies.

Price behavior near macro support levels shows buyers aren’t capitulating wholesale, even amid fear.

But liquidity conditions remain tight and macro headwinds aren’t gone. This feels less like confirmation of a new leg and more like a market seeking balance between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers.

If BTC stabilizes above critical levels and fear begins to thaw, sentiment could improve quickly. If not, we stay range-bound and choppy markets test conviction.

For now this is a narrative of relief, not triumph.Manage risk. Observe how levels hold. And remember: markets turn not when fear disappears, but when selling pressure finally stops.

Extreme Fear Drags BTC$BTC Down Weekly close under 60K or above 70K?

Well this depends on what technical structure and price action are saying on the chart because the Extreme Fear that is in the market currently as kept Sellers (Bear) in control and also because Bitcoin always follows priority scenario, to be precise here, After BTC failing to consolidate above the key technical & volume level at $68,000, price rolled over into a confident decline.

However, the projected buyer zone has not yet been tapped, and the market has formed only a local rebound.

CURRENT STRUCTURE

Buying attempts are occurring on weak volume

Resistance is forming near current prices with increasing activity

Liquidity magnets remain below price

The priority remains on the seller’s side.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

A retest of $68,000 the previously defended level could trigger renewed selling pressure.

In that case, intraday shorts remain valid, targeting the $65,000–$63,000 buyer zone.

🟢 Buy Zones

• $65,000–$63,000 (maximum volume area)

• $72,200–$56,000 (daily buying zone)

🔴 Sell Zones

• $72,500–$75,200 (selling pressure)

• $77,800–$79,200 (accumulated volume)

• $82,000–$85,500 (volume anomalies)

• $87,600–$90,500 (accumulated volume)

Until price reclaims and holds above $68K with strong volume confirmation, rallies appear corrective rather than impulsive

BITCOIN MAY LOOK QUIET, BUT THE OPTIONS MARKET IS ALIVE.

BTC$BTC is chopping between $65K–$73K, yet under the surface, the derivatives market is tense.

Open interest has surged to 452k BTC$BTC (up from 255k BTC after December expiry).

1- and 3-month implied volatility jumped roughly 10 vols.

Put demand spiked, skew widened from 6% to 18%.

This isn’t about betting on a rally. It’s aggressive hedging.

Even more telling: options remain cheap relative to realized volatility, meaning there’s fuel for implied volatility to rise further, not fall. The pressure is building, not easing.

Dealers are short gamma between $58K–$74K. Translation: once Bitcoin breaks out of this range, hedging flows can amplify the move, and history shows downside cracks can be brutal.

On the chart, price seems calm. In the plumbing, stress is screaming. And when that gap widens, Bitcoin rarely stays quiet for long.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season#

A weekly close under $60K looks more likely than above $70K right now.

Recovery above $70K would need strong buying momentum and renewed confidence.

Extreme fear is weighing heavily on Bitcoin, causing sellers to dominate the market.

Support around $60K is being tested, and a weekly close below this level could reinforce bearish sentiment.

Investors remain cautious and hesitant to enter long positions amid uncertainty.

A rebound above $70K would require strong buying pressure and a shift in market psychology.

Short-term volatility is high, making risk management essential for traders.

Sentiment indicators show that fear is currently stronger than optimism.

The next few days will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin consolidates or falls further.


Patience and careful observation are key in navigating this volatile phase

@Fogo Official
我們剛剛看到CoinMarketCap上的加密恐懼與貪婪指數達到今年以來的最低水平，在過去的90天裏幾乎沒有擺脫極度悲觀。

昨天：極度恐懼 - 8

上週：極度恐懼 - 5

在2018年12月15日，BTC達到了$3,023的低點，而恐懼與貪婪指數註冊爲11。

在2020年3月17日，BTC達到了$3,897，指數爲8。

在2022年6月18日，BTC跌至$17,420，指數爲6。

最近，在2026年2月12日，BTC交易價格約爲$67,293，而恐懼與貪婪指數顯示爲5。

$XRP
$DEFI
XRP (XRP) 在 Ripple 概述了擴大其在去中心化金融中的角色的計劃後，重新引起了關注，但價格數據表明迄今爲止只有適度的波動。

XRP 當前價格約爲 1.44 美元，24 小時表現大致持平，這表明任何上漲可能是日內或短暫的。

XRP Ledger 的 DeFi 路線圖很重要，因爲它可以在 XRP 的支付角色上增加借貸、自動做市商和代幣化資產。

需要關注的關鍵點是具體的發佈、鏈上流動性增長，以及開發者和用戶是否真正採用新的 DeFi 功能。

@Plasma $XPL #PlasmaXPL
一些項目感覺就像他們不斷追求關注。其他項目則安靜地構建，讓工作隨着時間的推移說話。Plasma更接近第二類，這正是我爲什麼對跟隨XPL$XPL 保持興趣的原因。 #Plasma

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

@Vanar @Vanar vanar, tag token
Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.
Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million $BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like
$BTC (crypto.news).
What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

$BTC Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Ethereum fell 5.25% over the last 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market's 4.32% drop. This sharp decline extends recent losses, with ETH down 3.21% over the past week. Here are the main factors:
Broad Market Downturn – Bitcoin plunged to a two-month low, dragging major altcoins like ETH lower in a correlated sell-off.
Leverage Unwind & Short Pressure – Over $800M in crypto positions were liquidated, with a notable whale profiting from a large ETH short, accelerating downward momentum.
Geopolitical Risk Aversion – Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran spurred a flight to traditional safe havens, dampening appetite for risk assets like crypto