$BTC hit ~$126k in early October 2025 (roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving). We’re now trading around $77k–$78k in early September 2026 — a solid but not catastrophic drawdown of ~38–50%. Classic cycle watchers call that the cycle top. But what if it wasn’t?
In my view, historical cycles have compressed in size but kept similar timing, with peaks usually arriving 12–18 months after each halving. This time feels different because institutional flows, ETFs, and the debasement trade brought more structural demand and less pure retail FOMO.I also see precedent for a mid-cycle high followed by a multi-month correction and then a stronger second leg higher, just like parts of 2019 or 2020–21.
I believe that the drop after the October 2025 peak looks like a healthy correction and accumulation phase rather than the start of a full 12–18 month crypto winter. I expect bottoming and base-building to wrap up through Q3–Q4 2026. Momentum should then return in Q4 2026 or early 2027, driving a renewed leg higher into the next halving window around 2028 and a higher cycle peak in 2028–2029.