Zarrar_X 1

比特幣“丟失”的供應剛剛創下歷史新高。

CryptoQuant 分析師 Darkfost 表示，現已有 356 萬 BTC 在超過 10 年內處於未動狀態，佔比約爲比特幣流通供應的 17.7%。過去 30 天，大約有 14,000 BTC 進入這一“沉睡”羣體。

這點很重要，因爲在十年間都未被動用的幣，其包含丟失密鑰、忘記的錢包或極度堅定的長期持有者的可能性正在增加。無論是哪種情況，它們都不屬於比特幣當前積極交易的供應範圍。

如果其中一部分 BTC 確實無法找回，那麼比特幣的實際可用供應可能會比人們看到的流通數據所暗示的要小得多。這帶來一個有趣的供給動態：可供出售的 BTC 更少時，當買盤壓力迴歸，哪怕需求相對溫和，也可能產生更大的影響。

不過有一點需要區分：“丟失”並不一定意味着可以被證明確實丟失。其中的 356 萬 BTC 可能仍由持有者控制，只是他們多年來一直沒有移動這些幣。

不管怎樣，這個數字都強化了比特幣最強的稀缺性敘事之一：2100 萬的最高供應量，並不等同於最終會真正對市場可用的 BTC 數量。

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #BTC #Macro Insights#

🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Just Held Through the Bitcoin Dip.

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are showing serious conviction in Bitcoin. Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council kept their combined $763.7M position in BlackRock’s $IBIT unchanged, even as Bitcoin fell sharply from its 2025 highs.

Mubadala holds about $490M worth of IBIT, making Bitcoin its second-largest reported U.S. portfolio position, while ADIC holds roughly $273.6M, its largest reported position. The key detail is that neither fund reduced its share count during Q2.

That doesn't mean Abu Dhabi bought $764M of Bitcoin during the dip. Their holdings were worth about $881M at the end of March, so the decline reflects Bitcoin's price falling while the funds simply held their positions.

And there may be more exposure that isn't visible in these filings. 13F reports only cover certain U.S.-listed securities, meaning they cannot confirm or rule out direct Bitcoin holdings. Arkham has also previously attributed roughly 6,782 BTC to mining wallets linked to the UAE's Royal Group.

The message is simple: Abu Dhabi isn't treating the Bitcoin dip as a reason to run. They're sitting through it.

$BTC $LINK #BTC Price Analysis# #Dubai #Macro Insights#

A NEW WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET.

I’m adding something new to my market analysis, but we’re not abandoning the usual style.

The regular analysis will continue as usual: looking at the trend direction, identifying key support and resistance levels, and highlighting potential entry zones. This will still apply to newer tokens and assets that may not have years of price history.

But for established assets with enough historical data, I want to take things a step further.

I’m introducing a new Top-Down Price Action Series where we’ll break an asset down from the bigger picture:

Yearly → Quarterly → Monthly → Weekly → Daily → Lower Timeframes.

We’ll study the historical price action at each level before zooming in to identify possible entry zones.

The idea is simple: instead of only looking at where price is right now, let’s understand the bigger picture first, then work our way down.

I’m thinking of starting this series with BTC, but I want your opinion.

Which asset should we start with?

$LINK $BEAT

Let’s see what you guys choose.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season# #Macro Insights#

根據 10x Research 的說法，到 2030 年實現 100 萬美元比特幣在“數學上不可能”。

10x Research 負責人 Markus Thielen 表示，到 2030 年比特幣達到 100 萬美元，需要大量新增資本。以當前 BTC 約 63,868 美元、市場市值約 1.28T 美元計算，他估計要實現 100 萬美元目標，額外資本大約需要 15T 美元。

Thielen 認爲，比特幣歷史上的資金淨流入無法支撐這一路線圖。在估值更高的情況下，要把價格顯著推高所需的資金量會越來越大，使得在四年內躍升至 100 萬美元極其困難。

他還提醒，不要假設比特幣會很快重複以往的週期。即便重新回到 10 萬美元附近，在他看來，也將是相較當前水平的重大成就。

不過，把 100 萬美元稱爲“數學上不可能”更像是一個資金流向的論點，而非嚴格的數學證明。比特幣價格並不由“市值與新增資金的簡單一對一關係”直接決定。流動性變化、持有者行爲、供給動態以及估值倍數，都可能影響最終結果。

因此，真正的問題並不是 100 萬美元比特幣在數學上是否不可能。關鍵在於，到 2030 年時，額外 15T 的經濟價值與足夠的需求，是否能夠現實地支撐這一估值。

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto

$LINK is showing strong 1H momentum after breaking out of the $8.70-$9.00 consolidation area.

Price is now around $9.44, with the recent impulse pushing toward the $9.70-$9.85 supply area. The broader short-term structure remains bullish, and current market data also shows #LINK holding above $9 after a strong move this week.

The main thing to watch here is whether LINK can sustain above $9.40-$9.50. A clean push through $9.70-$9.85 could extend the move toward $10.00-$10.20, while rejection around that ceiling would make a retracement increasingly likely.

The marked $8.70-$8.85 demand zone is the key area on this chart. That's where the previous breakout structure began to develop, so a deeper pullback into that region could provide the strongest opportunity for buyers to defend the trend. Losing $8.70 would weaken the current bullish structure and potentially send LINK back toward $8.40-$8.50.

For now, the setup is bullish but extended. I wouldn't chase aggressively into the upper resistance; either a confirmed breakout above $9.85 or a controlled pullback into support offers a cleaner risk profile.
#Macro Insights# #AltcoinSeason

STONfi Goes Live August 20 | Gram Wallet Is Coming and Builders Are Ready.

Telegram is preparing to launch a native non-custodial Gram Wallet. The question is what gets built on top of it, and that conversation is happening live on August 20.

STONfi is hosting a live discussion with WenLong, Gram Store, and DTrade to look at what is already being built and what could come next for Telegram-native crypto products.

– August 20 · 15:00 UTC

What the session covers:
> What the next generation of Telegram-native crypto products could look like
> What these teams are building and how users experience their products
> What builders are expecting from the Gram Wallet launch
> How STONfi infrastructure works underneath it all

A live community poll runs during the session — your answers become part of the discussion.

There is also 150 STON up for grabs. A question drops at the end of the stream. Answer it under the official X post before August 21 at 15:00 UTC to win:

> Best answer gets 70 STON
> 2 random winners get 40 STON each

- Register for the Event : https://luma.com/5c0t5b88

$LINK $ACE #Macro Insights# #Crypto #AltcoinSeason

AKE is showing a parabolic 1H expansion, with price ripping from around $0.004 to a recent high near $0.0128 before pulling back toward $0.0108.

The key area to watch is the $0.0062-$0.0070 demand zone marked on the chart. If the rally needs a deeper reset, that is the main region where buyers could attempt to rebuild structure. A shallower pullback around $0.0080-$0.0090 could also provide an earlier reaction, but losing that area would make a deeper retracement more likely.

For continuation, $AKE needs to reclaim and hold above roughly $0.0115-$0.0120, with the recent $0.0128 high acting as the immediate ceiling. A clean break above that high could open the way toward $0.0140-$0.0160, while repeated rejection would favor another move lower.

After a 60%+ 1H expansion, chasing the current candle carries elevated risk. The cleaner setup is either a controlled pullback that holds support or a confirmed breakout and retest. Bias: bullish structure, but heavily extended in the short term.
#Macro Insights# #Crypto #Altcoin Season#

Binance Moves to Block HTX and 10+ Exchanges Under EU Sanctions.

Binance is tightening its compliance controls, announcing plans to block transactions involving 16 crypto exchanges and service providers, including major exchange HTX (formerly Huobi). The move follows regulatory actions tied to allegations of helping Russia circumvent sanctions.

The restrictions are being introduced in stages, with several platforms already affected and additional entities scheduled to be blocked from August 23. Binance says transactions involving the listed entities could trigger compliance reviews and potentially lead to wallet restrictions.

The development highlights how quickly geopolitical sanctions are spreading into crypto infrastructure. Even centralized exchanges operating globally are increasingly required to restrict counterparties connected to sanctioned jurisdictions or activities.

For Binance users, the key takeaway is simple: avoid sending or receiving funds involving the listed platforms after their respective cutoff dates, as such transactions may face additional compliance checks or restrictions.

$BTC. #BTC Price Analysis# #BNBChain# #Crypto

$ACE has gone into a parabolic 1H expansion, jumping over 100% and pushing into the $0.25 area. Momentum is extremely strong, but the distance from the previous base makes a cooling-off move increasingly likely.

The key level now is $0.18–$0.20. A pullback that holds this region could turn the previous breakout into support and give buyers a healthier base for continuation.

If #ACE stabilizes above that zone, the next major objective is around $0.28–$0.30, where the chart shows overhead resistance. A clean break could extend the move, but chasing after such a vertical rally carries higher risk.

For now, watch the pullback rather than the pump. Holding $0.18–$0.20 keeps the bullish structure intact, while losing it would signal that the move needs a deeper reset.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

STONfi Leads TON DeFi With ~78% of All DEX Swap Volume.

The numbers just dropped and they are worth paying attention to.

STONfi holds approximately 78% of all TON DEX swap volume, nearly 5x more than the second-place venue. And roughly 59% of DEX users on TON, about 1.6x more than the runner-up.

What the stats do not fully capture is Omniston. By aggregating TON liquidity across multiple sources, STONfi's real contribution to swap execution on TON is broader than any single venue metric shows. That makes STONfi not just the leading DEX on TON, but one of the core execution layers of the entire ecosystem.

Thanks to everyone swapping, building, and growing with us. There is more ahead.

Swap on STONfi : app.ston.fi

$LAB $VELVET #Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#

Cross-Chain Swaps Are Not a Feature Anymore | They Are the New Default.

For a while most DeFi activity lived on one network. Then the ecosystem fragmented across dozens of chains and everything changed.

Total Value Locked is now spread across Ethereum, multiple Layer 2s, BNB Chain, Solana, TON, and a long tail of newer chains. The same asset exists on fifteen or more chains simultaneously. Yield gaps between chains are large enough to justify moving capital regularly. Mainstream wallets already support multiple chains by default.

A platform reachable from only one chain is reachable from only one chain, no matter how efficient the AMM or how generous the incentives.

Three mechanisms handle cross-chain movement and their risk profiles are not interchangeable.

Bridges lock the token on the source chain and mint a wrapped version on the destination. Fast and practical. The bridge contract holds custody the entire time, concentrated custody risk that bridge exploits have repeatedly proven is real.

Peer-to-peer atomic swaps use HTLCs so no third party holds anything. Most trustless option by design. The problem is practical, both parties need to show up before the clock runs out.

Resolver-based HTLC networks solve that bottleneck. A user matches with a professional resolver via RFQ and both sides settle through paired HTLCs. Only three outcomes, both receive their target asset, both retain their original asset, or both refunds execute. No path exists where both parties lose funds.

This is Omniston's design. No bridge contract, no wrapped token, user custody throughout. Phase 1 EVM coverage spans Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, and Polygon. For TON-native swaps, STONfi handles everything without any cross-chain step.

- Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/cross-chain-swaps-is-not-a-feature-its-the-new-default-for-defi/

#Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#
$HYPE $GRAM

Inflation Cooled, so Why Didn't BTC Break Out? Macro Analysis.

July's CPI report landed exactly at expectations (3.4% headline, 2.5% core), yet $BTC slipped back toward $63,500. Three factors are holding the price back:

> Priced In: In-line CPI removes downside risk but provides zero surprise to trigger a buy-side squeeze.

> Neutral Liquidity: A rate pause isn't active quantitative easing. Without direct Fed balance sheet expansion, macro liquidity stays flat.

> Overhead Wall & Delay: BTC has failed six attempts to close above the $65,000–$65,500 resistance zone, while the Senate's delay of the CLARITY Act keeps institutional capital on the sidelines.

Until spot ETF inflows surge or #BTC closes above $65,500, price remains locked in consolidation.

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$PI is consolidating around $0.088, with the 1H structure showing repeated reactions from the $0.0845–$0.0863 demand zone. Sellers are currently pressing price lower, so this area is the key level to watch.

A sweep into that demand followed by a strong 1H reclaim could set up the next bounce. The first hurdle is around $0.0922–$0.0935, where recent price action has struggled to hold above.

If buyers regain momentum, the main upside objective sits at $0.0922–$0.0935, matching the marked supply zone. That would be the major test for the recovery.

The setup is basically demand → reclaim → $0.090 → $0.0922–$0.0935. If $0.0850 gives way cleanly, however, the bullish roadmap loses strength and lower levels could come into play.
#PiNetwork #Altcoin Season# #MarketAnalysis

$SOL is showing signs of a short-term pullback after failing to sustain the $76.20–$76.90 resistance zone. Price is currently around $75.50, with sellers gradually taking control on the 1H structure.

The immediate downside area is $73.50–$73.80, which is the key demand zone marked on the chart. A move into this region could provide the reaction buyers need for another attempt higher.

If #SOL defends that demand, a rebound toward $76.20 is possible, followed by a retest of $76.20–$76.80. A clean breakout above that supply would shift momentum back toward the upside.

For now, the setup favors a pullback into $73.50–$73.80 before another potential push higher. Losing that demand zone would weaken the bullish structure and expose lower support.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

The Future of Cross-Chain UX | Will Users Even Know What Chain They Are On?

Cross-chain complexity is already being hidden from most users. The direction is clear and most of it is already partially in production.

One screen, one confirmation, one outcome. The user names what they want and signs once. The wallet handles chain detection, route selection, destination gas, and settlement. The "switch network" prompt that defined Web3 UX for years quietly disappears.

Gas paid in whatever you already hold. Account abstraction and resolver-paid gas remove the pre-funding requirement. A user holding only TON can transact on Ethereum, Base, or Polygon without acquiring ETH for gas first.

Settlement is cryptographic, not reputational. Paired HTLCs force three outcomes mechanically, both parties receive what was quoted, the user gets refunded by timelock, or the resolver gets refunded. The user's downside in a failure case is "the swap did not fill" rather than "funds stuck in a bridge contract."

Generic intent networks relocate trust from bridge contracts to solver reputation. Resolver-based HTLC protocols like Omniston go further — cryptographic atomicity means the failure path is mechanical and narrow, not dependent on anyone's goodwill.

Omniston is stablecoin-first with Phase 1 EVM coverage across Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, and Polygon. For TON-native activity, STON.fi handles intrachain swaps natively without any cross-chain step.

– Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/the-future-of-cross-chain-ux-will-users-even-know-what-chain-theyre-on/

– Try Cross-Chain Swaps on STONfi : https://app.ston.fi/swap?mode=cross-chain&in=ton%3AUSD%E2%82%AE

$HYPE $GRAM #TON #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

冷卡（Coldcard）遭黑客攻擊後，約150億美元的比特幣轉入安全。

冷卡漏洞可能竊取了大約2,100枚BTC，但更重要的是接下來發生了什麼。鏈上數據顯示，約233,000枚BTC（價值約150億美元）從長期持有者的錢包中轉出——原因是用戶在重新評估自我託管（self-custody）的安全性。

Casa首席執行官Nick Neuman表示，這次遷移並不僅限於冷卡用戶。一些Ledger和Trezor持有者也將資金轉入多重簽名（multisig）設置中：這種方案需要多個彼此獨立的密鑰才能授權交易。

這意味着，轉入安全的比特幣數量可能是被竊取金額的10倍到100倍。與其引發更廣泛的自我託管危機，這次漏洞爲持有人爭取到了反應時間，並促使他們加強安全性。

此次事件凸顯了比特幣的一項重要特性：自我託管在單個錢包層面可能存在脆弱性，但網絡本身依然高度韌性，因爲用戶可以獨立作出響應。
#BTC #宏觀洞察# #BTC價格分析#

在最新回調之後，ETH正維持在$1,858–$1,866需求區之上；多頭正在推動價格回到$1,900附近。1小時結構仍處於區間震盪，因此該區域對於維持這次反彈嘗試仍然至關重要。

若能持續站上$1,900–$1,920，將改善形態併爲上探打開通道，目標指向$1,950一帶。更大的目標位於$1,965–$1,980左右，屆時標註的供應區可能會吸引賣方重新入場。

如果$ETH在當前水平附近遭遇拒絕，那麼首個需要關注的區域是$1,870，其後是更強的$1,850–$1,865需求。守住該區間將有助於維持看漲反彈的想法。

目前，清晰的路徑是$1,900 → $1,920 → $1,965–$1,980，前提是下方需求仍能守住。若出現明確的1小時跌破$1,850，這一設置將顯著走弱。
#ETH #宏觀洞察# #山寨季#

黃金（$XAUt）與白銀：僅用七天再加 $3.1萬億。

黃金和白銀出現了令人矚目的上漲，短短七個交易時段內，合計市值增加了約 3.1 萬億美元。這一飆升反映了在通脹擔憂、地緣政治緊張以及利率預期變化共同影響投資者信心的背景下，對避險資產需求的上升。

黃金仍是主要推動因素，中央銀行和機構繼續將其視爲戰略性價值儲備。與此同時，白銀受益於投資需求的同時，工業用途也在擴張——覆蓋太陽能、電子產品以及其他多種技術領域。

從這裏開始，利率預期以及美元走強很可能仍將是關鍵驅動因素。利率下行可能進一步支撐金屬，因爲持有不生息資產的機會成本將隨之降低。

這一走勢也引發了與比特幣的對比，因爲投資者正越來越多地將目光投向傳統金融市場之外的稀缺資產。金銀這波上漲能否持續，將取決於通脹水平、貨幣政策、中央銀行需求以及全球經濟狀況。
$BTC #Gold #Macro Insights# #BTC Price Analysis#

Do Cross-Chain Bridge Users Get Better DeFi Returns? What Wallet Data Shows -

Using a cross-chain bridge does not automatically lead to better returns. It can signal a deliberate DeFi strategy, but bridge risk, fees, and execution complexity can eat into gains.

Four wallet profiles tell the story.

High-frequency bridger — dozens of bridge transactions, positions on five chains, capital rotating every few weeks. Looks sophisticated, but every hop adds costs and yield differences can narrow before assets arrive.

Selective allocator — three or four bridge transactions per quarter, concentrated positions, longer holds. Fewer hops mean less slippage and execution risk. Bridge fees still apply.

Resolver-based HTLC user via Omniston — combines cross-chain access with bridge-risk avoidance. No shared bridge contract or wrapped-token spread on arrival. Paired HTLCs have three outcomes: both parties receive what was quoted, the user gets refunded by timelock, or the resolver gets refunded. No path exists where both parties lose funds.

Single-chain specialist — avoids cross-chain entirely. On TON via STON.fi, this means swaps, liquidity pools earning 0.2% of every swap, and farming rewards. TON transaction fees are roughly $0.0005. No bridge-contract risk.

The choice depends on whether cross-chain access is needed. For TON-native exposure, single-chain is cleaner. For Phase 1 EVM destinations, Omniston preserves bridge-risk avoidance without the single-ecosystem limitation.
Before moving assets cross-chain:

Calculate total route cost — protocol fee, source gas, destination gas, and slippage Confirm destination liquidity before committing position size Compare a single-chain alternative first For bridge routes, verify audit status and whether the destination asset is a wrapped IOU

Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/do-cross-chain-bridge-users-get-better-defi-rewards-what-wallet-data-shows/

$APR $GRAM. #Macro Insights# #Crypto #Meme Alpha#

$UNI is attempting to stabilize after a sharp 1H decline, with price now sitting around the $3.40–$3.45 demand zone. This is the area buyers need to defend if the recovery setup is going to remain valid.

A short-term bounce could push #UNI toward $3.60–$3.65, where the first real reaction is likely. Reclaiming that area would give buyers stronger momentum.

Above there, the bigger objective is the $3.78–$3.81 supply zone. That region could attract sellers again, so a clean 1H break above it would be important for further upside.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

For now, the setup favors a relief bounce while $3.40 holds. Losing that demand zone would invalidate the immediate bullish structure and put further downside back on the table.