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Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Fall Sharply in June The U.S. Treasury’s latest TIC data for June 2026 shows a notable reduction in foreign ownership of U.S. government debt. Key figures: > Total foreign Treasury holdings: $9.30 trillion (down from $9.37 trillion in May)
> Combined reduction by the three largest holders: approximately $61 billion > China: −$25.9 billion → holdings fell to $633.4 billion (lowest level since 2008)
> Japan: −$26.4 billion → holdings at $1.117 trillion
> United Kingdom: −$8.7 billion → holdings at $939.9 billion

China’s continued reduction marks a multi-year trend of diversification away from U.S. Treasuries. Japan remains the largest foreign holder but also trimmed its position significantly in the month. The decline comes amid elevated global yields, currency pressures, and ongoing questions about the long-term demand for U.S. government debt from major official and private foreign investors. A clear cooling in foreign appetite for Treasuries in June. Does this acceleration in foreign selling of U.S. debt raise concerns about future funding dynamics, or do you see domestic demand as sufficient to absorb it?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

Turkey Steps Into Hormuz Standoff Turkey is actively inserting itself into the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz. Key developments: > Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with President Trump and emphasized that continuing diplomatic talks with Iran is crucial. > Turkey offered support for peace efforts and stressed maximizing diplomacy to de-escalate tensions. > Separately, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. > The two discussed ongoing efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and maintain the fragile ceasefire. The calls come as the extended U.S.-Iran ceasefire continues to hold, while commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively at zero amid the prolonged standoff. Turkey is positioning itself as a regional mediator, pushing for both dialogue between Washington and Tehran and practical steps to restore navigation through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Diplomatic channels are active, but the waterway itself has yet to reopen. Do you see Turkey’s involvement as a meaningful step toward de-escalation, or is the Hormuz situation still too entrenched for quick progress? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

Every #Bitcoin Cycle Crash Has Been Softer Major peak-to-bottom drawdowns have steadily decreased in severity: 2011: −93% 2013–15: −85% 2018: −77% 2022: −73% Current cycle: −55% (so far) The pattern is clear. As Bitcoin’s market maturity, liquidity, and institutional participation have grown, the depth of each successive major correction has moderated. A −55% drawdown is still painful, but it sits well above the 70–90% collapses that defined earlier cycles. This progressive reduction in downside severity is one of the stronger long-term signals of Bitcoin’s increasing resilience. The asset is absorbing volatility with less extreme damage than in previous eras. That is a form of structural strength, even during a corrective phase. History shows the crashes are getting milder. Does the trend of softer cycle drawdowns make you more confident holding through the current one? #BTC Price Analysis# $BTC $XRP #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#

SafePal disclosed a data breach affecting 39,798 users 🤦 ngl, people don't talk about this part of crypto security enough you can have your private keys, seed phrase and funds completely untouched and still have your security seriously weakened 39,798 customers now have names, phone numbers, emails, addresses and purchase information exposed for a hardware wallet user, that information isn't harmless it tells someone exactly who bought a crypto device and where it may have been delivered that can make phishing, impersonation and even physical targeting much easier and this is why i keep coming back to privacy by design the less personal information tied to an online identity in the first place, the less useful a breach becomes that's also why i'm interested in what @Liberdus is building around usernames, encrypted communication and not requiring a phone number or email to participate your assets shouldn't be the only thing protected your identity should be too. #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Liberdus #Macro Insights#

9 of the Last 13 Augusts Closed Red — Can $BTC Break the Streak? #Bitcoin ’s August performance has historically leaned negative. Looking at the last 13 years: > 9 of 13 Augusts closed in the red > Median return sits around -7.5% > Average return is also negative across the sample > The most recent stretch (2022–2025) produced four consecutive red Augusts Only a handful of years (notably 2013, 2020, and 2021) delivered clear positive closes for the month. Seasonality is never a guarantee. Macro conditions, liquidity, ETF flows, and broader risk sentiment can override historical patterns. Still, the repeated weakness in August has been one of the more consistent monthly tendencies in Bitcoin’s trading history. With several weeks still left in August 2026, the month remains open. Can $BTC break the streak this time? It is possible — especially if supportive macro conditions (softer dollar, improving risk appetite) persist. However, history shows the odds have favored downside closes more often than not. Traders will be watching whether this August can finally deliver a sustained positive close after a multi-year run of red months. #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $SOL #BTC Price Analysis#

$BTC Holding Near $63,500 as Risk Assets Firm Bitcoin is trading around the $63,500–$63,600 level, posting modest gains on the day. Current market backdrop: > BTC: ~$63,600 (+1.1%)
> ETH: ~$1,900 (+1.4%)
> Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.50%
> S&P 500 futures: +0.11%
> DXY: softer, down ~0.2%
> Gold and silver also higher

The combination of firmer U.S. equity futures and a weaker dollar is providing a mildly supportive environment for risk assets, including crypto. Oil remains largely flat while the broader equity complex shows mixed but constructive pre-market signals. Price is consolidating near recent levels with limited volatility so far in the session. Traders continue to watch whether the softer dollar and equity strength can translate into sustained follow-through for Bitcoin. A relatively calm tape with a slight risk-on tilt. Are you treating the softer DXY and higher equity futures as enough of a tailwind for $BTC here, or still waiting for stronger confirmation?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $ETH #Macro Insights#

Kalshi Traders Price Bitcoin Yearly Low Near $54K Prediction market traders on Kalshi are currently forecasting that Bitcoin’s lowest print this year will land around the $54,000 level. Key details from the market: > The aggregated forecast sits near $54K
> Trading volume on the related contracts exceeds $5.4 million
> The market asks a simple question: “How low will Bitcoin get this year?”

This reflects the collective positioning of traders betting on the depth of any remaining downside in 2026. Bitcoin has already traded well below previous cycle highs, and the prediction market continues to assign meaningful probability to further weakness before year-end. Prediction markets price probabilities, not certainties. Sentiment can shift quickly with new flows, macro data, or technical developments. The $54K level is now one of the more closely watched downside markers among active traders. Do you see $54K as a realistic yearly low, or do you expect the bottom to form higher (or lower) from here?

#Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #BTC Price Analysis#

When bringing assets into TON, most users probably think about the destination first. But the route you take can matter just as much. @ston_fi 's latest research breaks down two ways users can move value from Ethereum, BNB Chain or Base into TON: the traditional bridge route and the atomic-swap route through Omniston. The difference isn't just technical. With a typical bridge, the original asset is locked on the source chain and a wrapped Jetton is issued on TON. You get your funds onto TON, but you're now holding a representation of the original asset. With an atomic swap, the goal is different. Omniston matches the trade with a resolver and uses paired HTLCs to settle both sides of the transaction. The user receives the native TON-side asset directly, without adding a wrapped-token layer. If the swap doesn't complete, the timelock mechanism allows the funds to be returned. That creates a different experience for someone who actually wants to use the capital in TON DeFi. You don't have to arrive with a wrapped version and then figure out what to do with it. The cross-chain transaction can deliver the asset you actually want to use on TON. And there is another difference worth paying attention to: custody and risk. A bridge introduces exposure to the bridge contract and its supporting infrastructure. The resolver-based HTLC model used by Omniston removes the bridge contract from that path and makes settlement conditional on both sides of the swap completing. Neither route is automatically right for every situation. But once you understand how the routes work, “moving assets to TON” stops sounding like one simple action. The infrastructure behind that movement matters. Explore cross-chain swaps on STONfi:https://app.ston.fi/swap Read and explore more about STONfi here:blog.ston.fi/ #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $XRP #TON ecosystem, here to discover the latest projects#

PRESIDENT TRUMP says: “The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon.” Trump made the statement on Truth Social as diplomatic efforts with Iran remain stalled. A 60-day negotiating period that was meant to advance a broader de-escalation framework has expired without a comprehensive agreement, leaving both sides far apart on key issues. This is not a new position. Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon has been the central and repeatedly stated objective of U.S. policy under Trump throughout the ongoing tensions. The administration has consistently separated this red line from other matters such as regional security arrangements and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest post arrives at a moment when progress on the nuclear file has been limited and both sides continue to hold firm. It serves as a clear reaffirmation that, regardless of the current state of talks, the core condition remains non-negotiable. Trump reaffirms the long-standing red line: Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

DXY Dumping Hard — Supportive Setup for Crypto The U.S. Dollar Index is under clear pressure, sliding toward the 99.37 area on the latest move. What the chart shows: > Sharp sequential decline with limited bounce attempts > Price breaking lower after recent consolidation > Momentum currently favoring further weakness in the short term A softer dollar has historically provided a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Lower DXY tends to ease global liquidity conditions and reduce headwinds for dollar-denominated speculative assets. This does not guarantee sustained upside in crypto on its own — other macro and flow factors still matter — but a declining dollar removes one of the more consistent near-term pressures that have weighed on the space at times this cycle. DXY weakness is one of the cleaner short-term tailwinds currently on the board. Are you treating this DXY drop as a meaningful catalyst for crypto, or waiting for confirmation from price action and flows? #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $XRP #Altcoin Season# #BTC Price Analysis#

Liquidity providers don't just need more liquidity. They need their capital to work harder. In a traditional AMM, your liquidity is generally spread across a broad price curve. That means part of the capital may sit far away from the price where most trading is actually happening. Concentrated liquidity changes that. Instead of providing liquidity across the entire range, an LP can choose a specific price range where they expect most trading to occur. If the market stays inside that range, more of the supplied capital is actively available to traders. That can make the position more capital-efficient and potentially generate more fees from the same amount of liquidity. But there is a trade-off. If price moves outside the selected range, that liquidity stops participating in trades until the position is adjusted or the market moves back into range. And impermanent loss remains part of the risk for LPs. That's why concentrated liquidity isn't simply about chasing higher returns. It's about giving liquidity providers more control over where their capital is deployed. This is particularly interesting for TON as DeFi liquidity continues to grow. STONfi currently lists Protocol Upgrade v3 with concentrated liquidity support for Q3 2026, alongside its broader focus on improving the capital efficiency and performance of its AMM. If implemented well, this could change how TON liquidity providers think about their positions: less idle capital → more targeted liquidity → potentially better use of LP capital. The important part will be how the new model handles range management, fees and the risks that come with concentrated positions. That's where things get interesting for TON DeFi. Explore STONfi:https://app.ston.fi/pools Read and explore more about STONfi here:blog.ston.fi/ #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Altcoin Season#

Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 30-Year High Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield surged to 2.93%, its highest level since 1996. Key context: > The move pushes the yield close to the psychologically important 3% level. > Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike as early as September. > Drivers include a persistently weak yen, elevated oil prices, inflation concerns, and ongoing fiscal spending pressures. Rising Japanese yields matter globally. Higher JGB rates can influence capital flows, put pressure on the yen carry trade, and contribute to tighter financial conditions beyond Japan. The last time the 10-year yield traded at these levels was nearly three decades ago, underscoring how far Japan has moved from its long era of ultra-low rates. A significant shift in one of the world’s largest government bond markets. #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

US-Iran 60-Day Ceasefire Extension Reportedly Approved According to Al Arabiya, the United States and Iran have agreed to extend their 60-day ceasefire. Key points from the report: > Sources told Al Arabiya English that an agreement has been reached to prolong the existing 60-day ceasefire framework. > The original window stemmed from the June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding aimed at pausing hostilities and opening a path toward broader negotiations. Market reaction so far has been cautiously positive, as any reduction in immediate geopolitical risk around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz tends to support risk assets, including crypto. Note that other outlets have reported the original 60-day period expiring without a formal breakthrough, and Iranian officials have previously denied active talks on an extension. Confirmation from both sides remains limited at this stage. Geopolitical developments continue to drive short-term volatility. Does a potential ceasefire extension ease your near-term risk outlook, or are you waiting for clearer confirmation from both Washington and Tehran? #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $XRP #Macro Insights#

Crypto Cards Top-Up Volume Surpasses $1 Billion in July Monthly stablecoin card top-up volume crossed the $1 billion mark for the first time in July 2026. Key figures: > Total volume: approximately $1.08 billion
> Month-over-month growth: +16%
> This marks a new record and continues the rapid expansion seen throughout 2026

Crypto payment cards are emerging as one of the strongest real-world use cases for stablecoins. Top-ups remain concentrated on low-fee, high-throughput networks, with USDC showing particularly strong growth in consumer card programs compared with other stablecoins. The trend highlights how stablecoins are moving beyond pure trading and DeFi into everyday spending and payments infrastructure. Volume has scaled several times higher than levels seen at the start of the year. As more issuers expand card programs and on/off-ramps improve, this segment is becoming a meaningful on-chain activity metric to watch. Do you see crypto cards as a major driver of sustained stablecoin demand going forward?

#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Macro Insights#

The Reality of Chasing a 100x If you want a true 100x, the path is rarely a straight line. Typical sequence many long-term holders face: > You catch the first leg and ride a 5x. > Then comes an 80% drawdown that brings you back near break-even. > The next major move delivers a 10x — and conviction is tested again. > Another strong run follows (often another multi-bagger), making it feel easy. > Then a sharp 70–80% correction hits before the final leg that completes the 100x. Most people exit during one of the deep pullbacks. The ones who reach the full multiple are usually those who held through multiple cycles of euphoria and pain. This pattern has repeated across previous cycles for assets that ultimately delivered outsized returns. The emotional difficulty of sitting through large drawdowns is the real filter. Can you hold through the full sequence, or do the intermediate 80% dips usually force an exit? #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $XRP #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

lol 這裡才開始進入一個「AI 透明度」變成完全不同對話的分水嶺 如果我生成的文字能夠攜帶一個看不見的訊號，用來辨識是由哪個模型產生的，那我就不再只是把它當作寫作工具在用 我是在為內容加上一層隱藏的附帶層 而且我不覺得人們應該習慣這種變成預設值的做法（老實說） 尤其當那個訊號能夠離開原本的平台，跟著我的文字走，並且可能影響其他人如何看待我寫的東西 對我來說，真正更大的問題是「控制」 到底是誰決定把什麼資訊附加到我的內容上 這些資訊會跟著內容待多久 又是誰有資格去查驗它？ 這也是為什麼我特別關注 @Liberdus 隱私不應該只是使用者的一個選項 Liberdus 正在打造以加密通訊為核心、並且由使用者自行掌控身分的系統，而且不需要電話號碼或電子郵件就能參與 我們應該朝著讓使用者對自己的數位身分擁有更多控制權前進，而不是在不出聲的情況下，悄悄地把更多資訊附加到他們創作的一切上 #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $XRP #Liberdus #Macro Insights#

Tether 執行長否認區塊鏈謠言 Tether 執行長 Paolo Ardoino 直接駁斥稱公司正在開發自家區塊鏈的說法。 關鍵聲明： > 「Tether 並非在建置任何區塊鏈，也沒有計畫要建置。」 > 公司仍然是「鏈無偏好（agnostic）」，並持續將多個既有鏈作為其穩定幣的傳輸層。 此項否認源於先前報導，內容將 Tether 與其他公司並列，指其涉嫌探索針對美元的專用（「穩定鏈／stablechain」）網路。 Ardoino 作出明確區分：儘管 Tether 可能會投資或與某些計畫合作，但它並非在建置或規劃推出自家鏈。 這再度印證 Tether 長期以多鏈策略為核心的方針。$USDT 繼續在既有網路上運作，而非將資產整合到由發行方所控制的專屬區塊鏈上。 這項澄清消除了市場對潛在 Tether L1 的猜測，並強化公司對「分發」而非「基礎設施擁有權」的重點。 你認為 Tether 持續採取鏈無偏好策略，能否鞏固其作為主流穩定幣的地位？還是你認為專用穩定鏈（stablechains）會隨著時間推移變得更重要？ #BTC 價格分析# #比特幣價格預測：比特幣接下來的下一步會是什麼？# $BTC $USDT #宏觀洞察#

加密貨幣價格：2021 年高峰 vs 2026 年現實 將主要幣種從 2021 年高點到目前 2026 年的表現做簡單的並列對照，可以清楚看到循環中的鮮明落差。 近似高峰價格（2021）vs 現在（2026）： > 比特幣（BTC）：$67,150 → ~$66,000（大致持平）
> 以太幣（ETH）：$4,800 → ~$1,900（−60%）
> 索拉納（SOL）：$260 → ~$75（−71%）
> 狗狗幣（DOGE）：$0.72 → ~$0.07（−90%）
> 卡爾達諾（ADA）：$3 → ~$0.18（−94%）
> 萊特幣（LTC）：$370 → ~$45（−88%）
> Avalanche（AVAX）：$140 → ~$6（−96%）

比特幣在名目上幾乎維持在先前循環的高點附近。幾乎所有主要山寨幣都仍深陷在 2021 年高點之下，許多幣種跌幅達 70%–95%。這說明了當前市場結構的不同之處：比特幣顯示出相對韌性，而大多數山寨幣板塊仍持續反映長期落後，以及資金輪動向龍頭資產集中。到目前為止，本循環中 $BTC 與其他市場之間的落差，仍是最具定義性的特徵之一。 這份 2021 到 2026 的對照，會不會改變你在未來如何在比特幣與更廣泛的山寨幣市場之間配置資金？ #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $SOL #Altcoin Season#

如果 $ETH 追上全球 M2——上行指向 $12,000+？該圖將以太坊的價格走勢與全球 M2 貨幣供應量的代理指標進行疊加，突顯日益擴大的背離。它顯示： > 全球 M2（下方面板）持續走在長期上升軌道。
> ETH 價格（上方面板）明顯落後，特別是在 2024–2025 高峰之後，與流動性趨勢之間拉開了巨大差距。
> 兩張圖上的上升支撐線目前仍維持完整。

核心論點很直接：如果以太坊開始與擴張中的全球流動性重新對齊（就像比特幣在過去幾輪中更貼近那樣），那麼一波追趕行情可能會把價格大幅推高。一些將此關聯作圖的分析師指出，在全面重新定價情境下，目標可能落在 $10,000–$12,000+，更激進的預測則可能延伸更遠。重要提醒： > 與 M2 的相關性不等同於因果關係，且其強弱會隨時間而變化。
> ETH 還面臨自身的供需動態、競爭與採用等變數，而純粹的流動性模型無法涵蓋。
> 目前的落差可能透過價格上漲、M2 成長放緩，或兩者結合來縮小。

但儘管如此，這種「視覺化的背離」確實是目前流通中、針對以太坊最清晰的長期流動性圖表之一。你會對 $ETH 的全球 M2 追趕敘事給予足夠的重視嗎？還是你認為其他基本面驅動因素更重要？

#BTC Price Analysis# $BTC #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Ethereum

你可以完美地保護你的私鑰，卻依然會讓自己暴露。最近 Trezor 的駭客事件就是一個很好的提醒。錢包並沒有被入侵。問題出在購買者周邊的相關資訊。第三方的物流/配送供應商遭到入侵，揭露了 13,689 位客戶的資料，其中包含姓名、電子郵件、電話號碼以及運送資訊。這已經足以造成完全不同類型的安全風險。想像有人知道你的姓名、你的電話號碼以及你住在哪裡——而且還能把這些資訊連結到一筆加密貨幣相關的購買。於是，釣魚不再需要看起來像是隨機事件。它可以變得更「個人化」。這也是為什麼我開始把隱私視為安全本身的一部分。附著在身分上的每一份額外的個人資訊，都會再多產生一份可能在日後被濫用的資訊。而這裡 @Liberdus 採取了很有趣的做法。Liberdus 不把電話號碼或電子郵件當作通訊的基礎，而是使用使用者名稱與去中心化基礎設施，並且把加密訊息功能直接內建在網路中。你無法暴露那些根本不需要一開始就被綁定到身分上的資訊。安全不只是保護你擁有的東西。它也同樣是在保護擁有它的人。#BTC 價格分析# #Bitcoin 價格預測：比特幣接下來的下一步是什麼？# $BTC $XRP #Liberdus #宏觀洞察#