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BTC is sitting around $83.5K, and honestly, Q4 is starting at a pretty interesting spot.
We just came off a huge +42.7% Q3, but the post-PCE push to $85.6K didn’t hold. BTC is back inside that familiar $82K–$85K range. Now I’m watching the downside closely. Around $83K, there’s roughly $60M in estimated long liquidations. Lose $82.5K and things get more interesting. The estimated ETF cost basis sits around $81.7K–$82.2K, while the 365D MA is sitting near $80K. So a normal 3% pullback from here could take BTC straight into a pretty important zone. The difference is simple: Leverage traders get liquidated. Spot/ETF holders just go underwater. But if enough spot holders start panicking, that selling can become the bigger problem. At the same time, OI has already dropped quite a bit and funding is close to neutral, so the market doesn’t look heavily overleveraged right now. Above us, $84K–$85K is still a major area too, with heavy LTH cost basis sitting there. So I’m basically watching this range: $85K → resistance