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條目 & 關鍵指標 – 2月10日
🟢 長情景（當前無效 - 需要重新確認）
· 觸發器：Coinbase 溢價 > -0.10%
· 入場區間：$68,200 - $68,500
· 止損：$67,800
· 目標：$69,500 → $70,500 - $71,000
🔴 短情景（活躍 - 立即監控）
· 觸發器：5分鐘收盤 < $68,200 + Coinbase 溢價 < -50
· 入場區間：$68,000 - $68,150
· 止損：$68,800
· 目標：$66,500 → $65,000
📊 決策指標（當前）
· Coinbase 溢價：-77.57 (⬇️ 激進的機構拋售)
· 融資利率：-0.0008 (⬇️ 看跌定位)
· RSI (1分鐘)：68.9 (極端短期超買)
⚠️ 絕對條件：如果 Coinbase 溢價 > -20.$BTC ，則短情景無效
#WhenWillBTCRebound #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH #GoldSilverRally #風險資產市場衝擊
🟢 長情景（當前無效 - 需要重新確認）
· 觸發器：Coinbase 溢價 > -0.10%
· 入場區間：$68,200 - $68,500
· 止損：$67,800
· 目標：$69,500 → $70,500 - $71,000
🔴 短情景（活躍 - 立即監控）
· 觸發器：5分鐘收盤 < $68,200 + Coinbase 溢價 < -50
· 入場區間：$68,000 - $68,150
· 止損：$68,800
· 目標：$66,500 → $65,000
📊 決策指標（當前）
· Coinbase 溢價：-77.57 (⬇️ 激進的機構拋售)
· 融資利率：-0.0008 (⬇️ 看跌定位)
· RSI (1分鐘)：68.9 (極端短期超買)
⚠️ 絕對條件：如果 Coinbase 溢價 > -20.$BTC ，則短情景無效
#WhenWillBTCRebound #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH #GoldSilverRally #風險資產市場衝擊
Where is the market heading now?
I am focused on two primary scenarios, with a strong bias towards the first.
🟢 MAIN SCENARIO (70% Probability): Pullback, Then Upside Continuation to $71,000
Thesis: The pivotal improvement in institutional flow is legitimate, but the price has moved too far, too fast (LTF RSI is overbought). Healthy trends require consolidation.
Key Watch Zone: A retracement towards the $68,200 - $68,500 range. This former resistance should now act as support, creating a favorable risk/reward asymmetry.
Execution Plan:
· Entry (Limit Order): $68,300
· Stop-Loss: $67,900. A break below this level invalidates the support thesis.
· Take-Profit 1: $69,500 (Initial resistance test)
· Take-Profit 2: $70,500 - $71,000 (Technical & psychological resistance zone)
· Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3
🔴 COUNTER SCENARIO (30% Probability): Rejection and Retest of $66,000
Trigger: Resumption of aggressive whale distribution (Exchange Whale Ratio > 0.92) coupled with a deterioration in the Coinbase Premium.
My Action: Immediately invalidate the long plan. I will NOT short against such negative funding rates. Instead, I will revert to a NO TRADE stance and await a new, clearer signal.$BTC
I am focused on two primary scenarios, with a strong bias towards the first.
🟢 MAIN SCENARIO (70% Probability): Pullback, Then Upside Continuation to $71,000
Thesis: The pivotal improvement in institutional flow is legitimate, but the price has moved too far, too fast (LTF RSI is overbought). Healthy trends require consolidation.
Key Watch Zone: A retracement towards the $68,200 - $68,500 range. This former resistance should now act as support, creating a favorable risk/reward asymmetry.
Execution Plan:
· Entry (Limit Order): $68,300
· Stop-Loss: $67,900. A break below this level invalidates the support thesis.
· Take-Profit 1: $69,500 (Initial resistance test)
· Take-Profit 2: $70,500 - $71,000 (Technical & psychological resistance zone)
· Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3
🔴 COUNTER SCENARIO (30% Probability): Rejection and Retest of $66,000
Trigger: Resumption of aggressive whale distribution (Exchange Whale Ratio > 0.92) coupled with a deterioration in the Coinbase Premium.
My Action: Immediately invalidate the long plan. I will NOT short against such negative funding rates. Instead, I will revert to a NO TRADE stance and await a new, clearer signal.$BTC
#RamadanGiveaway
🌙✨ 每個齋月的日子都是一個成長和分享的新機會！今天，我完成了齋月日曆的一項特殊任務，很高興看到自己的進展。讓我們一起繼續這美好的步伐！ #RamadanGiveaway
🌙✨ 每個齋月的日子都是一個成長和分享的新機會！今天，我完成了齋月日曆的一項特殊任務，很高興看到自己的進展。讓我們一起繼續這美好的步伐！ #RamadanGiveaway
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