btcanalysis

Many people think every cycle is different.
But when you study time + price together, you realize one thing:
History doesn’t repeat exactly… but it rhymes.
Right now, $BTC is showing similarities to the 2017 and 2021 cycles. And if that structure continues, we could still see serious downside before the true bottom forms.
Some are calling for $35,000 in the short term.
Is that possible? Yes.
Am I emotionally reacting to it? No.
Because I don’t trade based on fear.
I trade based on a framework.
My Strategy: TIME + PRICE
Most traders only watch price.
That’s why they miss the best opportunities.
I track Bitcoin on two axes:
TIME
PRICE
When you combine both, the market becomes much clearer.
⏳ The TIME Axis
Days from ATH to cycle low after each halving:
2012 cycle → 406 days
2016 cycle → 363 days
2020 cycle → 376 days
2024 cycle → Still developing
Notice something?
The timing is very similar every cycle.
If this pattern continues, the highest probability window for the next major cycle bottom is:
👉 October – November 2026
That is my TIME target.
When that window hits, I will be buying — regardless of what the price looks like.
Why?
Because timing prevents you from getting front-run.
Price alone can trap you. Time gives structure.
💰 The PRICE Axis
I started accumulating once we entered the $60,000 zone.
Even though the time window hasn’t arrived yet.
Why?
Because waiting for the “perfect” level is how most retail traders miss the entire move.
Retail mentality: “I’ll buy only if it hits X.”
Reality: If price never hits X, you stay sidelined forever.
My approach is simple:
If price offers value → I start buying.
If historical time window arrives → I buy no matter what.
What About a Lower Low?
Yes, the risk of a deeper correction is still real.
That’s why TIME matters so much.
Back in October, when BTC was around $114,000, I clearly said I would be a strong buyer in the $60,000 range.
People laughed.
They said Bitcoin would never revisit $60K.
I don’t argue with noise.
I stick to structure.
Now we’ve reached that zone.
But I’m still prepared for a potential move into the $45K–$50K region by late 2026. That’s my ultimate heavy accumulation area.
🔵 The On-Chain Confirmation: NUPL
One more thing I monitor closely:
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Historically, it signaled major bottoms:
2018 bear market
COVID crash
2022 capitulation
Right now?
We are not in the deep capitulation zone yet.
That tells me the real cycle low might still be ahead.
My Execution Plan
1️⃣ TIME Axis:
October–November 2026 → Strong BUY regardless of price.
2️⃣ PRICE Axis:
Below $60,000 → Strong BUY regardless of timing.
If either condition is met, I execute consistent daily buys.
No emotions.
No panic.
No chasing headlines.
The market feels messy right now.
But every cycle has this phase — confusion before clarity.
I’ve spent a decade studying macro cycles, and structure always beats emotion.
The real opportunity comes when others are scared.
Stay prepared. Stay disciplined.
$BTC

#BTC#bitcoin #Crypto#CryptoMarket #BTCanalysis #BitcoinCycle #CryptoInvesting

比特幣在加密貨幣市場上主導了超過十年，而2026年可能是它打破所有紀錄的一年。以下是原因：
1️⃣ 機構購買：越來越多的對沖基金、企業和投資者將比特幣納入他們的投資組合，推動需求上升。
2️⃣ 稀缺性與供應壓力：由於僅有2100萬BTC會存在，有限的供應與日益增長的興趣相遇，推高價格。
3️⃣ 經濟因素：通貨膨脹、不穩定的市場以及傳統金融的不確定性使比特幣成為許多投資者的首選避險工具。

如果你昨天的交易被卡住了，你並不孤單。市場一直被困在一個狹窄的範圍內，形成了一個巨大的 "流動性池"，在當前價格的上下方。星期四歷來是鯨魚觸發這些區域的日子。當倫敦交易時段準備開盤時，我看到訂單簿中有一些激進的積累。
1. "鯨魚陷阱"地圖：
昨晚，$BTC 清算超過
80Minshortpositions.然而，真正的流動性現在坐落在∗∗80Minshortpositions.然而，真正的流動性現在坐落在∗∗

比特幣正在一個關鍵區域內移動 ⚠️
弱手首先被震出 👀
然後真正的動作開始了 🚀
🔻 短期回調是可能的
🔺 但大局仍然看漲
💡 耐心就是力量
不要帶着情緒交易 ❌
市場總是有計劃 — 聰明的錢懂得這一點 🧠
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #BTCanalysis $BTC #smartmoney $BTC

🚨 比特幣更新

$BTC 的交易價格約爲 $66K，徘徊在主要阻力下方。賣家正在鎖定利潤，買家則顯得猶豫。當需求無法推動價格上漲時，價格會停滯或下跌。

提示：阻力 = 警惕區 ⚖️。回調在下一次突破前是正常的 🚀。

保持警惕，注意交易量激增——它們通常預示着下一次大動作！

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #BTCAnalysis