Top Move

在当前的加密市场中，叙事显然正在发生变化。关注点不再仅限于短期价格激增或引人注目的TPS数字。相反，注意力正转向可靠性、一致性和现实世界的可用性。这就是XPL在近期讨论中开始获得相关性的地方。
在过去的几周里，市场情绪对能够在压力下运行的区块链表现出越来越大的兴趣。在这种背景下，XPL脱颖而出，因为其设计优先考虑在网络高峰活动期间的稳定性能。XPL强调可预测的执行，而不是仅仅在理想条件下优化速度，这对于面向支付和企业级用例至关重要。

In February 2026, as #bitcoin reels from a brutal crash—plunging to $60,000 on February 5 before rebounding above $68,000—the age-old debate resurfaces: Are Bitcoin's famed four-year cycles still alive, or have they finally met their demise? For over a decade, these cycles have dictated the cryptocurrency's boom-and-bust patterns, tied inextricably to its halving events. Yet, with institutional adoption, ETFs, and maturing markets reshaping the landscape, analysts are split. Some declare the cycle "dead," evolved into a more sustained growth trajectory, while others see eerie similarities to past bears, suggesting the rhythm persists. This article delves into the mechanics of these cycles, their historical track record, and whether 2026 marks their evolution or extinction, drawing on recent data and expert insights.
What Are Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles?
Bitcoin's four-year cycles refer to recurring patterns of price behavior, roughly aligning with its halving events every 210,000 blocks—or about four years. These cycles typically unfold in phases:
Accumulation: A period of sideways or gradual recovery post-bear market, where "smart money" buys in.
Bull Run: Explosive price growth, often 1-2 years post-halving, driven by hype and FOMO.
Peak and Correction: Overheating leads to a sharp crash, erasing 70-80%+ of gains.
Bear Market and Readjustment: Prolonged consolidation, shaking out weak hands before the next halving.
A simple analogy: It's like a four-year heartbeat—starting slow after a "halving shock," accelerating into euphoria, then contracting in despair before recovering. Historically, this has repeated across cycles, with each bull peak dwarfing the last.
Why Do They Happen?
The cycles stem from Bitcoin's core design: a fixed supply of 21 million coins, with issuance halved periodically to mimic scarcity like gold.
Halving Mechanism: Every four years, miner rewards drop by 50% (e.g., from 6.25 $BTC in 2020 to 3.125 BTC in 2024), reducing new supply entering the market. This creates a "supply shock," theoretically driving prices up if demand holds steady.
Market Psychology: Halvings act as psychological anchors, sparking speculation and media buzz. As prices rise, retail FOMO amplifies gains; fear then triggers sell-offs.
Economic Parallels: Cycles mirror broader business cycles—expansion, peak, contraction, recovery—fueled by liquidity, adoption waves, and external factors like regulations or macro events.
Users note how halvings create "significant psychological events," defining trading narratives. Without halvings, Bitcoin's inflation would mimic fiat currencies; instead, it enforces deflationary pressure, theoretically boosting value over time.
Historical Evidence: A Track Record of Booms and Busts
Bitcoin's cycles have been remarkably consistent:
Data shows post-halving years often deliver massive gains (e.g., +300% in 2021), followed by corrections. However, drawdowns remain severe, with "Bitcoin is dead" narratives cycling predictably—477 times by some counts.
The Current Cycle in 2026: Signs of Life or Mutation?
Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin surged to $126,000 in 2025 but has since corrected 50%, aligning with cycle norms. Metrics like the Puell Multiple (around 1-2) suggest mid-cycle stability, not capitulation. Users debate a potential "relief bounce" before deeper lows, with some projecting peaks in mid-2026 or October. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer notes a "lame 2026" if the cycle holds, with bears echoing 2018/2022 patterns.
Yet, deviations abound: Diminishing returns (post-halving +18% vs. historical +300%), ETF inflows buffering supply shocks, and correlations to macros (e.g., Fed policies, gold surges) suggest evolution.
Are the Cycles Dead? Arguments For and Against
Arguments for Death or Evolution:
Institutional Dominance: ETFs and corporates (e.g., MicroStrategy) create a "consistent bid," reducing volatility. Cycles may stretch to five years or become "supercycles." +2 K33 Research declares "the 4-year cycle is dead," citing structural changes like derivatives markets.
Maturation: As Bitcoin behaves like gold (correlation ~0.85), halvings lose impact with only ~1.8% annual inflation left. Epoch Ventures predicts $150K by year-end, ending the cycle.
Arguments Against:
Persistence: 2026's 40-50% drawdown mirrors past corrections; Fidelity sees the cycle "intact." History "rhymes," per Mark Twain.
Psychological Inertia: FUD cycles repeat—"Bitcoin is dead" headlines at every dip, regardless of price.
On-Chain Support: Low metrics signal accumulation, with halvings still anchoring narratives. "The 4yr Bitcoin cycle is dead? Well... MAYBE it is... But it sure as hell hasn't been broken yet."
Conclusion: Evolving, Not Extinct
Bitcoin's four-year cycles, born from halvings and psychology, have shaped its history but face disruption in 2026. While institutional forces may lengthen or dampen them—potentially birthing supercycles—the current bear echoes past patterns, proving the cycle's resilience. The 4 Year Cycle Is DEAD!! What It Means For Crypto In 2026!!"—yet data whispers otherwise. Investors should monitor halvings as guides, not gospel, blending cycle awareness with macro vigilance. In crypto's maturing world, history rhymes, but the tune is changing.

人工智能营销者并不像人类那样与区块链互动。他们不会打开钱包应用程序、批准弹出窗口或管理种子短语。相反，人工智能系统需要始终在线的、合规的、全球支付基础设施，能够以编程方式和大规模结算价值。这就是为什么支付是任何人工智能就绪区块链的基础要求——也是为什么@Vanarchain 的方法正在引起关注。

Vanar Chain 旨在围绕实际金融活动设计，现在不再是实验性演示。它的结构专注于快速的最终性、可预测的低费用，以及能够支持自主营销者、企业和机器驱动交易的基础设施。在一个以人工智能为先的全球中，价值转移必须是无缝的、可靠的，并且符合监管要求——这些是投机链条经常忽视的特性。

专为实际国际账单和稳定币基础设施而构建，而不仅仅是用于投机用途。Plasma 的设计旨在实现快速结算和低费用交易，专注于使链上账单对普通用户、商户和开发者更为实用。其突出特点之一是对稳定币优先转账的支持，允许在没有通常限制加密货币采用的波动性的情况下无缝移动支付。凭借全面的 EVM 兼容性，开发者可以轻松设置现有智能合约和以支付为目标的去中心化应用，同时利用 Plasma 的优化执行层。安全性和性能通过其架构得到了增强，而本地 $XPL 代币在交易费用、质押和长期社区可持续性方面发挥着重要作用。随着全球对更快、更便宜和更透明的数字账单的需求增长，@Plasma 正在将自己定位为下一代链上金融的核心基础设施。与追逐炒作周期不同，Plasma 正在构建支持区块链上真实金融活动的轨道。 #plasma

许多人进入Web3，认为找到一份工作或发现改变生活的alpha只是时间的问题。几个月变成了几年。图表不断变化，机会似乎无穷无尽，但真正的进展依然遥不可及。
我所学到的很简单：Web3的增长不仅仅是关于信息或交易。它关乎接近。
与建设者们在一起，积极创造、分享知识并相互支持的人，会改变你对这个领域的看法，以及你在其中成长的速度。你开始理解事物是如何运作的，而不仅仅是了解什么是流行的。

如果你超过18岁，请慢慢阅读。
接下来的6到12个月将比过去10年加起来更重要。
并不是因为一切都很好 —
而是因为一切仍在崩溃。
而这正是创造真正财富的方式。
每个人现在都相信的谎言
“市场已经触底。”
“痛苦结束了。”
“只需买入下跌。”
这种信念是危险的。
股票仍然处于历史极端估值。
压力在加剧，而不是减轻。
比特币尚未正式触底。
接下来可能会发生的事情是没人想象的部分：