Joao Wedson

Dogecoin is currently at one of the most extreme levels ever observed in its history when looking at the CVDD Channel. DOGE has rarely traded below the lower band of the channel, a region that has historically marked periods of extreme onchain undervaluation. What makes this especially interesting is what happened next. In every highlighted instance on the chart where price reached or broke below this extreme region, Dogecoin experienced strong rallies in the following months. Today, $DOGE is back in that same zone. This does not mean the bottom is confirmed or that price cannot move lower. But based strictly on the historical behavior of the CVDD Channel, Dogecoin is once again in a region that deserves close attention. Historically, buying DOGE in these extreme zones has offered a very different risk to reward profile compared with buying during periods of market euphoria. The market may be focused on price. Onchain analysis is focused on where we are in the cycle. Chart Link: Alphractal.com

Bitcoin is approaching one of the most important Long Term Holder MVRV zones. The **Long Term Holder MVRV is currently around 1.28**, moving significantly closer to the historical stress zone for long term investors. This metric compares the market value of Bitcoin held by Long Term Holders with the average cost basis of those coins. When **LTH MVRV falls below 1**, Long Term Holders are, on average, holding Bitcoin at an unrealized loss. Historically, these conditions appeared around some of Bitcoin’s most important accumulation periods: 🔵 2012 🔵 2015 🔵 2018 and 2019 🔵 2022 Today, the metric stands at **1.28**. This does not yet represent the extreme capitulation observed near previous major cycle bottoms. However, Bitcoin is moving closer to a region where historical risk and reward dynamics became increasingly asymmetric. A deeper price correction could push LTH MVRV closer to, or even below, 1 again. If that happens, the market would enter a zone historically associated much more with **long term accumulation than distribution**. Short term volatility can remain high. But from an on chain perspective, the Long Term Holder MVRV is becoming one of the most important Bitcoin metrics to watch over the coming months. **LTH MVRV: 1.28** Chart Source - Alphractal

Ethereum is entering a historically interesting valuation zone. Two major long term metrics have now moved into negative territory: 🔴 MVRV Z Score: -0.14 ETH is trading at a deeply compressed valuation relative to its realized value. Historically, negative MVRV Z Score readings have appeared during periods of significant market stress and attractive long term valuation. 🔴 Delta Growth Rate: -0.07 This metric compares the growth of Market Cap with the growth of Realized Cap over a 365 day average. When it turns negative, Realized Cap is growing stronger relative to market valuation, suggesting that on chain value accumulation is outperforming speculative price appreciation. And this is where things get interesting. Both metrics are now negative at the same time. Historically, similar conditions have been much more associated with accumulation and undervaluation than with market euphoria. This does not mean $ETH has already reached its final bottom. But beneath the price weakness, Ethereum's valuation structure is becoming increasingly attractive. The market is still bearish. The fundamentals of valuation are starting to tell a different story. Charts: Alphractal

It has now been 303 days since Bitcoin’s all-time high, and BTC continues to move through one of the longest drawdown periods of this cycle.

Bitcoin is currently about 48.4% below its ATH, while the deepest drawdown of this cycle reached 53.1% on Day 267.

Compared with previous major bear markets:

2017/18: 363 days, 83.4% drawdown
2021/22: 376 days, 75.7% drawdown
2013/15: 406 days, 85.3% drawdown

In terms of time, the current market is already entering the same region where previous major bear cycles began to mature.
But there is one important difference: the magnitude of the current drawdown is still significantly smaller.

303 days into the Bear Market. The question now is not only how much further Bitcoin can fall, but how much longer it will take for this structure to finally change.

Alphractal.com

ADA has gone through two major deleveraging events since late 2025, wiping out a huge amount of speculative positioning and cooling leverage risk across the market. That is exactly what Alpha Leverage Pressure is showing. When leverage gets flushed this aggressively, the market often transitions into a new phase: accumulation. The irony is that most investors want to buy in the red zone, when leverage, optimism and risk are already elevated. The smarter accumulation usually happens when traders are leaving, sentiment is weak and leverage has already been cleaned out. Less leverage. Less hype. More asymmetry. Link to the metric is in the comments.

Bitcoin is increasingly trading on its own terms.

The traditional 252 day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 price levels is now at its lowest point in 11 years.

However, price level correlations can be heavily influenced by long term trends. That is why we created a second and more robust view: the 252 day correlation between their daily logarithmic returns.

That correlation is currently around 0.37 and falling.

This means Bitcoin and the S&P 500 still share some daily risk behavior, but the relationship is only moderate and continues to weaken.

Why does this matter?

Because Bitcoin does not need the traditional market to lead every stage of its cycle. BTC can build a macro bottom and transition into a new bull market even while traditional markets follow a completely different path.

Correlations are not permanent. They change as market regimes change.

Bitcoin is showing that it has a life of its own. Data should define the narrative, not the other way around.

Source: Alphractal

We have already shown how powerful our Alpha Onchain Metrics can be, and $BCH is no exception.

If the price eventually reaches the lower level, the potential market bottom could be below $100.

In that scenario, BCH would not be the only asset in a critical situation. The entire altcoin market would likely be under severe pressure.

If this happens, only the most courageous and resilient investors will remain.

Most people may become so disappointed with the market that they will claim cryptocurrencies are a terrible investment.

But the truth is that many of them were simply poorly positioned at the wrong time.

Would you buy BCH if it dropped below $100?

也许 SOL、XRP 和 HYPE 仍有最后一波下跌，目的是清算剩余的多头，并迫使现货投资者在实现损失的情况下放弃、进而卖出。

我不相信会那么简单或容易。

这就是我熟悉的加密货币市场。只是，我的感觉是，这一波多单清算的浪潮已经接近尾声。

$ETH
$SOL
$HYPE

同意。这句话听起来很人工。最好删掉它，直接进入重点：

供应年龄区间（Supply Age Bands）图表清楚显示：持有比特币超过 6 个月的人，往往会持有多年。

同时，缺乏耐心的人，通常连把比特币放在钱包里满 6 个月都做不到。

持有超过 6 个月的 BTC 通常只会在市场进入真正的强劲牛市阶段、并达到某些令人亢奋的时刻时才会被卖出。

相较之下，短期持有者往往较晚才开始累积，并在熊市阶段出售其比特币。

换句话说，短期持有者有助于推高价格，但真正透过在价格上涨时出售资产、建立财富的，是长期持有者。

你是短期持有者还是长期持有者？

图表：Alphractal

你的梗币涨不起来是因为大家只把注意力放在做多（Long）部位！$DOGE 和 $PEPE 就是很明显的例子……🔥Alphractal

许多交易者很快将在 Hyperliquid（HYPE）被强制平仓！

这是必然的！

app.alphractal.com $HYPE

比特币的估值增长速度快于其采用率

目前，比特币的梅特卡夫（Metcalfe）比率约为 3.23，表明其市值增长速度快于整个网络上的用户活动。

该指标将比特币的市场价值与活跃地址数量的平方进行对比，遵循梅特卡夫定律的原理。

当比率上升时，意味着价格相对于网络参与度的增长进一步拉开距离。这不一定表示没有需求，但表明估值正在由相对更低的活动水平支撑，从而增加市场中的投机成分。

更高的数值可能意味着比特币相对于其采用层面的基本面在以溢价交易。反过来，更低的数值则可能提示其相对于网络使用情况存在低估的可能。

短期内，价格仍可能受到流动性和投机的推动。然而从长期来看，采用率需要跟上估值的脚步。

关注 Alpha。

Alphractal.com

6 个月清算水位显示，主要的清算流动性池位于做多（Long）在 55,000 美元到 57,000 美元之间，做空（Short）则在 82,000 美元到 84,000 美元之间。

最引人注目的是，大量集中在 57,000 美元附近，这一点离比特币目前价格更近。

如果比特币朝这个区域移动，可能会在多个交易所内导致大量交易者被强制平仓（清算）。

在 Alphractal.com 存取市场上最强大的清算水位（Liquidation Levels）工具，并在交易者最可能被清算的价格区间设置提醒。

在过去两周内，一个主要清算集群已在 56,200 美元至 57,500 美元之间形成。

比特币需要维持在目前价格水准之上。否则，最可能的情境是下跌以清算这些杠杆多头部位。

$BTC

目前的比特币熊市已经可以被视为其历史上最严重的熊市之一。

亏损供给百分比（Percent Supply in Loss）已回到与 2022 年 11 月相近的水准，显示目前流通供给中有极大一部分正处于浮亏状态。

但有一个重要差异。

在 2022 年 11 月，比特币的流通量约为 1,920 万 BTC。今天，流通供给接近 2,005 万 BTC。

这意味著，即使亏损供给的比例相近，今天在取得成本之下交易的比特币绝对数量也显著更高。

换句话说，目前承受未实现亏损的币数，比 2022 年循环的底部时更多。

这种情况也揭露了先前多头行情令人不舒服的现实。尽管创下新高、机构采用增加，以及比特币 ETF 的扩张，市场中仍有大量资金在高位买入，并且如今仍然深陷浮亏。

从亏损在投资人之间的分布角度来看，上一轮多头行情或许可以被视为比特币历史上最弱、且最不具包容性的行情之一。

亏损供给百分比（Percent Supply in Loss）衡量的是目前处于亏损状态的流通供给占比。

指标越高，代表市场持仓处于亏损的比例越大，这通常与市场压力、投降式抛售以及主要回撤的后期阶段相关。

市场可能已经创下新的历史新高。

但相当一部分投资人其实从未真正参与到那波增值。

资料：Alphractal

⚠️比特币的供应结构正在发生重要转变。几乎所有“供应年龄带（Supply Age Band）”都在下滑，唯有一个重要例外：那些在6到12个月间一直未被移动的币种。HODL Waves图表让这种变化一目了然。该群体在总供应中的占比正在迅速上升，表明过去数月获得的比特币中，越来越多的部分仍未被动用。 这暗示许多投资者在不出售持仓的情况下，经历了波动、修正以及市场情绪的变化。这不仅仅是供应“老化（supply aging）”。这也可能是信念的体现。如果这些币一直保持未动，它们将逐步迁移到更老的年龄带，从而强化长期持有者供应（Long-Term Holder Supply），并减少市场上可供交易的比特币数量。市场正在看到更少的年轻币，而6到12个月年龄带的集中度却在不断提高。关键问题是：这些投资者是否会继续持有，还是该群体最终会成为未来的“分配（distribution）”区域？立即获取市场最优质的指标与信号，借助强大的Alpha AI。在 Alphractal. com 开始吧。 $BTC

加密恐惧与贪婪指数仍处于“极度恐惧”区域，而股票恐惧与贪婪指数处于“中性”区域，并略偏看涨。

差异很明显，但也能看出，相比加密市场，股票市场的情绪波动要更不极端。

造成这种情况的原因包括市场成熟度、投资者行为、加密领域叙事过度以及价格波动本身。

在 Alphractal 了解更多情绪分析

标普500 / M2 正在重复点阵型的网络泡沫（dot-com）式分形。首次发布后的三个月里，这个分形依然坚固且完整。我相信每个人都应该关注此刻标普500正在发生的事情。目前的结构显示出与1996到2002年期间高度相似的特征。如果这种模式重复，标普500可能在2026年末或2027年前几个月达到其周期高点。我的理论是，在这段可能延续到2028年的横盘阶段，由于资金在传统市场与风险资产之间发生轮动，比特币将获得极强的实力，这将发生在股权分配的最后阶段之前。最了解我的人知道，我认为这次未来的比特币牛市可能是在2029年之后长期熊市开始之前的最后一次重大的牛市。以上就是我的计划。

大多数人会关注比特币价格。

我们关注的是结构。

在这段视频中，我将介绍结构性市场带（Structural Market Bands）——这是 Alphractal Research 的一个新模型，用于识别比特币可能正在进入不可持续的市场状况的区域。

进入抛物线式的狂热。恐慌性的投降性抛售。结构性耗竭。

在这里观看：
https://youtu.be/0u409y3Rl0c

先看数据。叙事随后。

再次，未平仓的多头头寸正在主导 BTC、ETH、XRP 和 SOL。

过去几天市场仅极其微弱地上行，而此刻值得多一点关注。

未来几个小时内的任何小幅回落，都可能让空头重新掌控局面，引发新一轮的恐慌。

就 ETH、SOL 和 XRP 而言，局势更为微妙：过去 30 天内累计了大量未平仓的多头头寸。

Alphractal.com