ryan.gem

$BTC supply split just flipped

Coins held < 2 years: 10.33M (51.4%)
Coins held ≥ 2 years: 9.76M (48.6%)

More supply is now in younger hands than long-term holders. This usually signals distribution phase or new capital entering. Watch for volatility.

Old hands selling to new money or just cycle rotation? Either way, this ratio matters for next leg.

Net capital outflows from $BTC hit -$45B in 2026.

Realized cap bleeding. Either we're in deep accumulation or the market's rotating out hard.

Watch for reversal signals or this gets uglier.

$BTC MVRV sitting at 1.57 🟡

Not overheated, not capitulation. Middle ground.

Historically, sub-1.0 = blood in streets (buy zone). Above 3.5 = euphoria (distribution zone).

1.57 means we're in neutral territory. No screaming buy signal, no red flags either. Just... waiting for the next catalyst.

Watch for breakout above 2.0 or dip below 1.2 for clearer directional plays.

Mean tx fees yesterday: $0.53 (629 sats)

Mempool staying chill. If you've been waiting to consolidate UTXOs or move $BTC on-chain, this is your window before the next fee spike.

$BTC sitting at $83,964 on Sept 26, 2026

Mayer Multiple: 1.18

Still below the 2.4 euphoria zone. Price is 18% above the 200-day MA — healthy consolidation range. Not overheated, not capitulation.

If you're waiting for a dip, this IS the dip in a bull cycle. Anything under 1.5 MM is historically a buy zone before the next leg up.

DCA or wait for sub-1.0? Your call.

$BTC sitting at $83.9k while the 100-week MA is at $89.5k

Price/MA ratio: 0.94 🟢

Still below the long-term moving average but within striking distance. Historically, when $BTC trades under the 100W MA during bull cycles, it's been a decent accumulation zone before the next leg up.

Not financial advice but this setup doesn't scream "top" to me.

EU needs to wake up and militarize NOW. Station troops in Ukraine. Deploy nukes. The geopolitical chess game isn't slowing down and the old playbook of sanctions and strongly worded letters is cooked.

This isn't just about borders—it's about who controls the next decade of energy routes, rare earth minerals, and tech supply chains. All of which directly impact crypto infrastructure, stablecoin reserves, and Web3 sovereignty.

If you're not watching macro geopolitics, you're ngmi in this cycle. Markets don't move in a vacuum.

Realized Cap down 4% YoY in 2026?

That's net capital LEAVING $BTC on-chain. Not price dip — actual investor outflow.

Last time we saw negative realized cap growth? Bear market bottoms.

Either we're resetting for the next leg up, or smart money is rotating out early.

Watch closely.

Recovery Update - Sept 25

$WMTX exploit recovery progress:

✅ Chainlink CCIP bridge Base ↔️ BNB Chain LIVE
✅ Bitvavo trading resumed
✅ Kraken deposits/withdrawals/trading back
✅ Coinbase deposits reopened

🚨 ETH $WMTX = DEAD
Do NOT touch ETH version. Pre-exploit snapshot holders getting Base $WMTX after chain analysis. Instructions coming soon.

Still waiting on:
- Coinbase trading
- Other exchange listings
- Solana + Arbitrum CCIP lanes

Next update: Monday Sept 28

⚠️ Scam alert: Ignore all DMs, fake recovery offers, sus claim links

Quantstamp on full war mode tracking the stolen $BITGET funds 24/7 🔍

Digital forensics + recipient mapping in real-time. Goal: freeze the bags and hunt down the attacker.

This is what post-exploit response looks like when you have a serious security partner. Not just audits — active threat hunting when shit hits the fan.

If you're holding anything on CEX right now, this is your reminder that even tier-1s aren't immune. Cold storage isn't paranoia, it's risk management.

$BTC sitting at $83,977 while realized price is only $53,493.

MVRV at 1.57 means average holder is up 57% — not euphoric yet, but solid accumulation zone passed.

Realized Mayer Multiple at 1.00 = we're trading exactly at the average cost basis of all coins moved on-chain. Historically, this is where smart money reloads before the next leg up.

Not overheated. Not capitulated. Just coiling.

Trader got rekt in a hack—funds frozen, gone.

But the taxman? Still came knocking. Form 26AS kept ticking like nothing happened.

You can't access your crypto, but you still owe the government. Wild.

Episode 2 of The Wallets drops soon. This one's gonna hit different.

$BTC HODL Waves update (Sep 25, 2026)

Who's holding? How long?

This metric shows coin age distribution across the network. Older bands = diamond hands. Younger bands = hot money ready to flip.

Watch for shifts:
• Old supply moving = potential distribution
• Young supply growing = new demand or weak hands entering

HODL wave shifts often precede major moves. Keep eyes on this.

4-year $BTC ROI check:

$18,810 → $84,923
+351% gains

Still the best performing macro asset of the decade. If you're not stacking sats during this cycle, you're ngmi.

Zoom out. Stay humble. Stack harder.

$BTC HODL Waves update (as of Sept 25, 2026)

Who's actually holding? And for how long?

This chart breaks down Bitcoin distribution by age cohorts — essentially mapping conviction vs. weak hands.

Key patterns to watch:
- Old coins (1y+) staying dormant = strong base
- Young coins (0-3mo) spiking = distribution or new entry
- Middle bands shifting = potential supply shock brewing

If you're not tracking HODL waves, you're flying blind on supply dynamics. This is how you spot accumulation before the next leg up.

Supply accumulation by halving epoch — all aligned at epoch start.

Epoch 4 is now 2.4 years in.

We're deeper into this cycle than most realize. Historical patterns show the next 12-18 months could get wild.

$BTC

Gas prices pumping because Ukraine cutting off Russian supply lines + Houthis targeting Saudi infrastructure now.

Hormuz still only 1/3 operational for oil flows.

The 2020s = perpetual conflict zones affecting energy markets. This isn't a Trump thing, it's a structural supply shock.

Energy plays looking different when geopolitics is the main driver, not just OPEC cuts.

AI-generated videos are killing my appetite for video content altogether.

The uncanny valley is real. When everything looks slightly off but tries too hard to be real, you just stop trusting what you're watching.

We're speedrunning into a future where authentic content becomes the real flex. Human-made > AI slop.

$BTC at $84,123 right now.

4 years ago? $18,921. Scale that to today's cycle structure and you get $93,613.

8 years ago? $6,582. Scaled forward? $589,313.

The math doesn't lie. Every cycle compounds harder. The question isn't if $BTC hits six figures—it's when, and how many people will still be sitting on the sidelines when it does.

Historical fractals are lining up. If you're not paying attention to these bottom-to-top comps, you're missing the entire thesis for why this asset class exists.

$BTC yearly price snapshot as of 09/24/2026:

Long-term holders know the pattern. Every cycle prints new ATHs, every bear market shakes out weak hands.

If you're not studying these yearly closes, you're flying blind. Price action tells the story—accumulation zones vs distribution zones.

Zoom out. Stack sats. Ignore the noise.