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Moonfasa
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CMC：
如果市场在触及这一重要支撑位后没有上涨，那么我们肯定会看到一个血腥的市场
不要对市场产生情绪，图表说明了一切，只有改变市场情绪的正面/负面消息才能阻止图表。
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The Bull Run isn’t over, we are just getting started.
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Crypto Bull Run Duration: Predicting bull run timelines is speculative, but historical patterns and catalysts offer clues. Here’s a data-driven framework: --- Historical Context - 2017 Bull Run: Peaked ~12 months after Bitcoin’s halving (June 2016–Dec 2017). - 2021 Bull Run: Peaked ~18 months post-halving (May 2020–Nov 2021), extended by COVID stimulus and institutional adoption. - 2024 Cycle: Bitcoin halving occurred April 2024. If history rhymes, a peak could arrive Q4 2024–Q2 2025 (~6–14 months from now). --- Current Bull Run Catalysts: 1. Bitcoin ETFs: Institutional inflows ($15B+ in 2024) are elongating the cycle. 2. Ethereum ETF Hype: Potential approval (late 2024/2025) could extend momentum. 3. Macro Conditions: Fed rate cuts (likely late 2024) may boost risk assets. --- Bearish Risks Shortening the Cycle: - Geopolitical Shocks: Wars, regulatory crackdowns (e.g., SEC vs. crypto exchanges). - Overheating: Retail FOMO peaks (e.g., meme coin mania, leverage spikes) often signal tops. - ETF Outflows: Sudden institutional profit-taking could trigger cascading sell-offs. --- #BitcoinWhaleMove Likeliest Scenarios: 1. Shorter Cycle (6–9 months): - Peaks by Q4 2024 if ETF inflows stall, macro headwinds worsen, or Bitcoin fails to break $75K+. 2. Extended Cycle (12–18 months): - Runs into mid-2025 if rate cuts, Ethereum ETF approval, and altcoin narratives (DeFi, RWA, AI) sustain momentum. ---Key Indicators to Watch: - Bitcoin Dominance: Falling dominance = altcoin season (often a late-cycle phase). - ETF Flows: Sustained inflows = prolonged bull run; outflows = early warning. - Meme Coin Mania: Extreme retail speculation (e.g., SHIB, PEPE, WIF pumping) often precedes tops. - Fed Policy: Rate cuts = bullish; delays = risk-off sentiment. --- Bottom Line: While no one knows exact timelines, prepare for a 6–18 month window from today (July 2024). Stay agile, take profits incrementally, and hedge against black swans. Bull markets don’t die of old age—they die of euphoria.
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WHAT ARE NFT AND WHAT ARE THEIR USES
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MISTAKES OFTEN MADE BY DEGENERATE (Avoid These!): 1. FOMO Trading: Chasing pumps without research (e.g., buying meme coins after +500% rallies). Result: Bag-holding at the top. 2. Overleveraging: 10x–100x margin on futures. One dip = liquidation. Greed ≠ strategy. 3. Ignoring Risk Management: No stop-losses, all-in on one coin, or borrowing to invest. 4. Shill-Driven Decisions: Blindly following influencers/inner circles without verifying claims (cough BitBoy, cough FTX). 5. Ignoring Tokenomics: Buying tokens with infinite inflation, team dumps, or no utility (e.g., 99% of BSC tokens). 6. Chasing "Guaranteed" Gains: Yield farms with 10,000% APY (likely a rug pull) or "tax-free" schemes (scams). 7. Panic Selling/Buying: Emotional trades during volatility. News ≠ always actionable. 8. Neglecting Security: Clicking phishing links, sharing seed phrases, or ignoring 2FA. 9. Ignoring Macro Trends: Buying altcoins in bear markets, ignoring Fed rates/BTC dominance. 10. Refusing to Take Profits: Turning 10x gains into losses because "it’ll go higher." Bonus Blunders: - Apeing ICOs/IDOs without audits (see: Squid Game token). - Trusting CEXs Blindly (remember Celsius, Voyager, FTX?). - Swing Trading Shitcoins: 90% bleed against BTC long-term. Pro Tip: Degens survive by respecting stops, taking profits, and treating crypto like casino money—never life savings. Stay humble, stack BTC/ETH, and actually DYOR.
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MISTAKES OFTEN MADE BY DEGENERATE (Avoid These!): 1. FOMO Trading: Chasing pumps without research (e.g., buying meme coins after +500% rallies). Result: Bag-holding at the top. 2. Overleveraging: 10x–100x margin on futures. One dip = liquidation. Greed ≠ strategy. 3. Ignoring Risk Management: No stop-losses, all-in on one coin, or borrowing to invest. 4. Shill-Driven Decisions: Blindly following influencers/inner circles without verifying claims (cough BitBoy, cough FTX). 5. Ignoring Tokenomics: Buying tokens with infinite inflation, team dumps, or no utility (e.g., 99% of BSC tokens). 6. Chasing "Guaranteed" Gains: Yield farms with 10,000% APY (likely a rug pull) or "tax-free" schemes (scams). 7. Panic Selling/Buying: Emotional trades during volatility. News ≠ always actionable. 8. Neglecting Security: Clicking phishing links, sharing seed phrases, or ignoring 2FA. 9. Ignoring Macro Trends: Buying altcoins in bear markets, ignoring Fed rates/BTC dominance. 10. Refusing to Take Profits: Turning 10x gains into losses because "it’ll go higher." Bonus Blunders: - Apeing ICOs/IDOs without audits (see: Squid Game token). - Trusting CEXs Blindly (remember Celsius, Voyager, FTX?). - Swing Trading Shitcoins: 90% bleed against BTC long-term. Pro Tip: Degens survive by respecting stops, taking profits, and treating crypto like casino money—never life savings. Stay humble, stack BTC/ETH, and actually DYOR.
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