_Crypto_Doctor_

$SOL

Here are practical ways traders usually confirm whether wave 4 is likely finished (still just analysis, not certainty):

1) Structure confirmation (most important)
Wave 4 often ends as a flat / zigzag / triangle rather than a clean impulse. Things that increase confidence it’s done:
A clear A-B-C completion (or triangle breakdown + break)
Break of the corrective channel (price reclaims the channel top if the correction was down, or breaks down if it was up)
A clean 5-wave impulse starting from the presumed wave-4 low/high (i.e., wave 1 of 5 becomes visible)

2) Price-level confirmation
Common wave-4 behaviors:
Often respects Fib retracement zones of wave 3 (commonly 0.236 / 0.382; sometimes 0.5 in weaker trends)
Should not overlap wave 1 in standard impulse counts (spot rule; futures can wick, but closes matter)

3) Momentum/flow confirmation
Even without indicators, the key idea is:
Wave 4 usually shows weakening momentum vs wave 3
If the next push looks impulsive and momentum expands again, that supports “wave 5 underway”

4) About your short with TP = wave 3 target
That can make sense only if your thesis is “wave 5 truncation / failure” (i.e., wave 5 doesn’t make a meaningful new extreme). But the risk you already highlighted is real:
If wave 5 extends, it can run hard (and 1.618 extensions are common in strong trends), so shorts can get punished quickly.

5) Risk framework for this exact uncertainty
If you’re holding the short while unsure wave 4 is done, most pros simplify it to:
Invalidation level (where your count is wrong)
Time/structure stop (if it starts impulsing the other way, you exit even if price hasn’t hit the invalidation yet)
Reduce size / hedge so you’re not “married” to the count

If you tell me:
1) your SOL perp entry,
2) leverage, grid range/steps,
3) where you mark wave 1 and wave 3, and your suspected wave-4 low/high,
…I can help you map clean invalidation + the two main scenarios (truncate wave 5 vs extended wave 5) and what each would imply for managing the position.