📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 17/10/2026
Data covering 837 days shows a correlation coefficient of r ≈ -0.304 between FGI and the daily win rate. The relationship remains negative but is weaker than in the previous update, providing insufficient evidence to use FGI alone as an order-entry tool.
Trading performance in the sample tends to be lower during periods of greed, particularly extreme greed. FGI may provide context for assessing risk, but this correlation does not establish predictive power or causation.
Below are the average daily win rate (WR), theoretical break-even R:R, and number of recorded days (n) for each sentiment range. R:R is expressed as risk:reward and excludes fees and slippage:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
😌 Greed (60–<80): WR 44.4% • R:R=1:1.25 • n=265
😐 Neutral (40–<60): WR 45.2% • R:R=1:1.21 • n=161
😰 Fear (20–<40): WR 47.1% • R:R=1:1.12 • n=271
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.4% • R:R=1:0.91 • n=115
The percentage of days with a win rate above the overall sample average of 46.41% in each range:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
😌 Greed: 34.0%
😐 Neutral: 38.5%
😰 Fear: 55.7%
😱 Extreme Fear: 68.7%
➤ These statistics illustrate the relationship between win rates and the R:R required to break even:
📈 At higher FGI levels, historical win rates were lower, implying a higher break-even R:R. However, setting more distant profit targets may also change the win rate itself.
📉 At lower FGI levels, historical win rates were higher, implying a lower break-even R:R. This alone does not establish that reducing profit targets would accelerate capital turnover or improve performance.
#TradingStats $BNB $TRX $XRP
Data covering 837 days shows a correlation coefficient of r ≈ -0.304 between FGI and the daily win rate. The relationship remains negative but is weaker than in the previous update, providing insufficient evidence to use FGI alone as an order-entry tool.
Trading performance in the sample tends to be lower during periods of greed, particularly extreme greed. FGI may provide context for assessing risk, but this correlation does not establish predictive power or causation.
Below are the average daily win rate (WR), theoretical break-even R:R, and number of recorded days (n) for each sentiment range. R:R is expressed as risk:reward and excludes fees and slippage:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
😌 Greed (60–<80): WR 44.4% • R:R=1:1.25 • n=265
😐 Neutral (40–<60): WR 45.2% • R:R=1:1.21 • n=161
😰 Fear (20–<40): WR 47.1% • R:R=1:1.12 • n=271
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.4% • R:R=1:0.91 • n=115
The percentage of days with a win rate above the overall sample average of 46.41% in each range:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
😌 Greed: 34.0%
😐 Neutral: 38.5%
😰 Fear: 55.7%
😱 Extreme Fear: 68.7%
➤ These statistics illustrate the relationship between win rates and the R:R required to break even:
📈 At higher FGI levels, historical win rates were lower, implying a higher break-even R:R. However, setting more distant profit targets may also change the win rate itself.
📉 At lower FGI levels, historical win rates were higher, implying a lower break-even R:R. This alone does not establish that reducing profit targets would accelerate capital turnover or improve performance.
#TradingStats $BNB $TRX $XRP