#FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause
Fed Minutes Focus On October Pause —
Has The Fed Finished With Hikes? 📜
All focus is on Fed Minutes today. October 7 – Minutes from the September meeting come out, and traders bet on the pause.
Just a week ago, odds of an October hike stood at 70%. Today? October's chances now stand at only 20.5%, falling to 16% after weak data, per CME FedWatch. Why?
Lack of urgency.
NY Fed President John Williams: "There is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." The Vice Chair Philip Jefferson agreed: policy decision "may take more time." The tone was definitive.
Data confirms that. Jobs growth in September came in at just 29,000 compared to estimates of 300,000, PCE inflation slowed to 3.4% versus expectations of 3.7%, and JOLTS openings weakened.
Now traders are pricing a December hike at 84.5% probability while Polymarket sees odds for October falling from 69% to 17%.
A dovish tone in the Minutes will be good news for risk assets. $BITCOIN trading around $84,300 and altcoins can breathe easier on falling yields.
Pause in October = boost to fourth-quarter rally?
#Fed #fomc #bitcoin #Macro
Fed Minutes Focus On October Pause —
Has The Fed Finished With Hikes? 📜
All focus is on Fed Minutes today. October 7 – Minutes from the September meeting come out, and traders bet on the pause.
Just a week ago, odds of an October hike stood at 70%. Today? October's chances now stand at only 20.5%, falling to 16% after weak data, per CME FedWatch. Why?
Lack of urgency.
NY Fed President John Williams: "There is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." The Vice Chair Philip Jefferson agreed: policy decision "may take more time." The tone was definitive.
Data confirms that. Jobs growth in September came in at just 29,000 compared to estimates of 300,000, PCE inflation slowed to 3.4% versus expectations of 3.7%, and JOLTS openings weakened.
Now traders are pricing a December hike at 84.5% probability while Polymarket sees odds for October falling from 69% to 17%.
A dovish tone in the Minutes will be good news for risk assets. $BITCOIN trading around $84,300 and altcoins can breathe easier on falling yields.
Pause in October = boost to fourth-quarter rally?
#Fed #fomc #bitcoin #Macro
