AAVE Has A $160 Supply Test

What caught my attention with AAVE is not the move from the June low.

It is the conflict between stronger ecosystem activity and rising exchange supply.

AAVE has recovered roughly 2.7 times from the June demand zone around $58.

Now the tokenized commodity market is adding another interesting layer.

Reported tokenized commodity deposits across DeFi reached around $133.3 million.

Aave accounted for roughly $51.3 million across V2 V3 and V4.

That means Aave is holding a meaningful share of the tokenized commodity liquidity currently sitting across these DeFi platforms.

Uniswap and Aave together represented around 86% of the reported deposits.

There is also another liquidity development.

Aave founder Stani Kulechov reportedly supplied around $4.77 million worth of AAVE liquidity to Uniswap.

That adds depth to the market but it does not automatically mean fresh demand for the token.

This is where the supply data becomes important.

AAVE exchange reserves increased around 7.59% with roughly $415.2 million worth of AAVE held across exchange wallets according to the reported data.

Higher exchange reserves do not mean those tokens will definitely be sold.

But they create more potential supply if holders decide to take profits after such a large recovery.

The chart is now sitting directly against that question.

AAVE broke above $147.64 and moved toward $154.39.

That $147.64 level is important because it was previously resistance and is now being tested as potential support.

The next major resistance is around $160.

RSI was around 66.61 while its signal average remained near 59.95.

That means momentum is strong but the indicator has not yet reached the 70 overbought zone.

There is also notable liquidation liquidity around $157 to $162.

If price moves through that area then short liquidations could add temporary momentum toward $160.

But there is liquidity below price as well.

Clusters around $151 and $148 could become relevant if buyers fail to defend the breakout.

For me the clean setup is not simply AAVE reaching $160.

It is whether the token can hold $147.64 while exchange reserves remain elevated.

If buyers defend that level and price breaks through $160 then the next area I would watch is around $180.

If $147.64 fails then the breakout becomes much less convincing and AAVE could return toward the previous consolidation range.

The fundamentals are improving.

The RWA footprint is expanding.

But price still needs to absorb available supply.

That is why I am watching $147.64 more closely than the next green candle.

AAVE has already broken resistance.

Now it needs to prove that the market can turn that resistance into durable support.