Bond market panic feels overblown. Yes, 10-year yield hit 5%, but context matters: since 1960, the average is 5.8%. We're still below long-term norms.
If you'd gone to sleep in 2005 and woke up today, you'd barely notice a change. The 2008-2020 era of sub-3% yields was the anomaly, not today's rates.
All the sovereign debt crisis chatter misses the point. What's happening is inflation expectations normalizing after a decade of ZIRP distortion. The bond market isn't broken — it's just returning to historical reality.
Recency bias makes 5% feel catastrophic when you've been conditioned by 2% for years. Step back. This is what normal looks like.
If you'd gone to sleep in 2005 and woke up today, you'd barely notice a change. The 2008-2020 era of sub-3% yields was the anomaly, not today's rates.
All the sovereign debt crisis chatter misses the point. What's happening is inflation expectations normalizing after a decade of ZIRP distortion. The bond market isn't broken — it's just returning to historical reality.
Recency bias makes 5% feel catastrophic when you've been conditioned by 2% for years. Step back. This is what normal looks like.
