196,000 got the headline. The dates are what I'm checking next.
The US Labor Department's September 17 release puts initial jobless claims at 196,000 for the week ending September 12, down 10,000. The four-week average fell to 203,250.
Continuing claims were 1.73 million, down 39,000, but that number covers the week ending September 5. Different measures, different reference weeks. I wouldn't add them together or describe them as one week's total.
There's a revision worth keeping: the previous continuing-claims figure was cut from 1.774 million to 1.769 million. The reported 39,000 decline uses that revised baseline.
All those figures are seasonally adjusted, and the latest weekly estimates are preliminary. For my crypto macro notebook, getting the dates and revisions right comes before drawing a conclusion about rates. This release alone doesn't settle BTC's next move.
Which gets the most weight in your reading of the labor market: A) new claims, B) the four-week average, or C) continuing claims? What makes it more useful to you?
#Macro #LaborMarket
The US Labor Department's September 17 release puts initial jobless claims at 196,000 for the week ending September 12, down 10,000. The four-week average fell to 203,250.
Continuing claims were 1.73 million, down 39,000, but that number covers the week ending September 5. Different measures, different reference weeks. I wouldn't add them together or describe them as one week's total.
There's a revision worth keeping: the previous continuing-claims figure was cut from 1.774 million to 1.769 million. The reported 39,000 decline uses that revised baseline.
All those figures are seasonally adjusted, and the latest weekly estimates are preliminary. For my crypto macro notebook, getting the dates and revisions right comes before drawing a conclusion about rates. This release alone doesn't settle BTC's next move.
Which gets the most weight in your reading of the labor market: A) new claims, B) the four-week average, or C) continuing claims? What makes it more useful to you?
#Macro #LaborMarket
