Everyone is asking the same question: Will the Fed hike 25bp this week?
Honestly, I think that’s not the most interesting question.
The market is already pricing in a high probability of a hike. So if the Fed actually delivers 25bp, why should $BTC suddenly collapse?
For me, the bigger trade is what Powell says after the decision.
If the hike comes with a message like “we may need to keep rates higher for longer,” that could hurt BTC and tech stocks because liquidity expectations would change.
But if the hike is treated as a one-off move and Powell signals that further hikes aren’t guaranteed, we could see the opposite reaction.
That’s why I’m not trying to predict the exact candle after FOMC.
I’m watching BTC’s reaction instead.
If BTC absorbs the rate hike and holds around the $75K–$77K area, that would actually be interesting to me. It would tell us that the market may already have priced in the bad news.
But if $75K breaks with strong selling, I’d rather wait than catch a falling knife.
The Fed can set the narrative.
BTC decides whether the narrative actually matters.
What are you watching — the rate decision, Powell’s comments, or BTC price action?
#FedRateWatch #BTC☀ #bitcoin #fomc #crypto
Honestly, I think that’s not the most interesting question.
The market is already pricing in a high probability of a hike. So if the Fed actually delivers 25bp, why should $BTC suddenly collapse?
For me, the bigger trade is what Powell says after the decision.
If the hike comes with a message like “we may need to keep rates higher for longer,” that could hurt BTC and tech stocks because liquidity expectations would change.
But if the hike is treated as a one-off move and Powell signals that further hikes aren’t guaranteed, we could see the opposite reaction.
That’s why I’m not trying to predict the exact candle after FOMC.
I’m watching BTC’s reaction instead.
If BTC absorbs the rate hike and holds around the $75K–$77K area, that would actually be interesting to me. It would tell us that the market may already have priced in the bad news.
But if $75K breaks with strong selling, I’d rather wait than catch a falling knife.
The Fed can set the narrative.
BTC decides whether the narrative actually matters.
What are you watching — the rate decision, Powell’s comments, or BTC price action?
#FedRateWatch #BTC☀ #bitcoin #fomc #crypto