Markets now pricing 54% chance of a rate hike in September.
Still basically a coin flip. Fed's been data-dependent for months, so this number will bounce around with every jobs report and CPI print between now and then.
Reminder: the market has been wrong about Fed policy plenty of times before. Don't trade on probabilities this tight — they're noise, not signal.
Still basically a coin flip. Fed's been data-dependent for months, so this number will bounce around with every jobs report and CPI print between now and then.
Reminder: the market has been wrong about Fed policy plenty of times before. Don't trade on probabilities this tight — they're noise, not signal.