retailsales

$BTC Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook☕️
Weekly Bias: 🟩Bullish | Negative NFP (-23K) is a nuclear dovish catalyst that forces the Fed pivot narrative. CPI expected to cool, reinforcing the dovish case. The structural bull case is intact with M2 Supply at ATH. Key catalysts this week: CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales.
Monday, 10 Aug: 🟩 Green. No major US data. Japan Mountain Day holiday. Markets will digest the negative NFP from Friday. The dovish narrative continues to dominate. Blackrock accumulation is likely to continue.
Monday is a data-light session with zero high-impact catalysts. The negative NFP print from Friday is still being digested, and the dovish narrative will continue to provide a bid for Bitcoin. The war premium is also fading as the market prices in a potential de-escalation. Expect a green start to the week with a push towards 66k. The TD Sequential at 6 Up suggests momentum is intact but may be nearing exhaustion.
Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $64,500~$66,000
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Tuesday, 11 Aug: 🟥 Red. Japan Mountain Day holiday. ADP Employment Change Weekly at 12:15 UTC forecast at 15.00K from 16.50K previous, a cooling signal. Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC forecast at 4.05M from 4.09M previous, a drop. API Crude Oil Stock at 20:30 UTC.
Tuesday is a light data day with housing data as the headline catalyst. Existing Home Sales are expected to drop from 4.09M to 4.05M, a dovish housing signal that should weaken the dollar and support Bitcoin. However, ADP Weekly cooling is also dovish. The data is dovish overall, but the market may be slow to react as it positions for Wednesday's CPI. Expect a woles (slow) session with a slight red bias as traders square positions ahead of the CPI.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with price range $64,000~$65,500
Direction: 🟥Bearish (Woles)
Wednesday, 12 Aug: 🔴🟢 Volatile. CPI Day. CPI (MoM) at 12:30 UTC forecast at 0.1% from 0.4% previous, a massive cooling signal. Core CPI (MoM) at 0.2% from 0.1% previous, a slight rise. CPI (YoY) forecast at 3.4% from 4.1% previous, a significant drop. Core CPI (YoY) at 2.5% from 2.9% previous. Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 UTC forecast at 2.479M from 2.479M previous, flat. 10-Year Note Auction at 17:00 UTC at 4.580%. Federal Budget Balance at 18:00 UTC.
Wednesday is the absolute king of the week. CPI is expected to cool dramatically from 4.1% to 3.4% YoY, a massive disinflation victory that will crush the DXY and send Bitcoin soaring. Core CPI is expected to cool from 2.9% to 2.5%. The data is overwhelmingly dovish. However, the MoM Core CPI is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%, a sticky inflation signal that could cap the upside. The market will focus on the headline drop. Expect a violent pump towards 67k, followed by a potential pullback if the core print surprises to the upside.
Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $64,500~$67,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish (CPI Drop)
Thursday, 13 Aug: 🟥 Red. PPI Day. PPI (MoM) at 12:30 UTC forecast at 0.2% from -0.3% previous, a recovery. Core PPI (MoM) at 0.3% from 0.2% previous, a slight rise. Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC forecast at 202K from 199K previous, a rise. Continuing Claims at 1,801K. 30-Year Bond Auction at 17:00 UTC.
Thursday is PPI day. PPI is expected to recover from -0.3% to 0.2%, which is a green signal that could strengthen the dollar and pressure Bitcoin. Core PPI rising from 0.2% to 0.3% adds to the hawkish pressure. Jobless Claims are expected to rise from 199K to 202K, a dovish signal that could limit the downside. The mix is confusing, but PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, and the PPI rise suggests that inflation may not be cooling as fast as hoped. Expect a red day with a pullback towards 64k.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with price range $63,500~$65,500
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Friday, 14 Aug: 🟩🟥 Volatile. Retail Sales Day. Retail Sales (MoM) at 12:30 UTC forecast at 0.1% from 0.2% previous, a cooling signal. Core Retail Sales at 0.2% from -0.2% previous, a recovery. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14:00 UTC forecast at 54.4 from 55.2 previous, a slight drop. Baker Hughes rig counts at 17:00 UTC. CFTC positioning at 19:30 UTC.
Friday is Retail Sales day. Retail Sales are expected to cool from 0.2% to 0.1%, a dovish signal that should weaken the dollar and support Bitcoin. However, Core Retail Sales are expected to recover from -0.2% to 0.2%, a green signal that could cap the upside. Michigan Sentiment is expected to drop from 55.2 to 54.4, a dovish signal. The mix is confusing, but the overall bias is dovish. However, Friday is always a pump and dump day. Expect a pump on the retail sales data, followed by a dump as weekend war fears and profit-taking kick in. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 5.8% is a strong growth signal that adds confusion.
Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $63,500~$66,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish then 🟥Bearish (Pump and Dump)
Saturday, August 15
Analysis: Weekend. No data. Markets closed. Geopolitical headlines (War Premium) may emerge. It is advisable to not trading on weekend, rest well and have fun with family and friends.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with range $64,000~$65,500 because no data/holiday/no institution movement.
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Sunday, August 16
Analysis: Japanese GDP data at 23:50 UTC. GDP (QoQ) forecast at 0.5% from 0.5% previous, flat. GDP (YoY) forecast at 2.0% from 1.8% previous, a slight beat. Low impact. Weekend is generally slow. It is advisable to not trading on weekend, rest well and have fun with family and friends.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with range $64,000~$65,500 because low liquidity.
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Bias: The negative NFP (-23K) is a nuclear dovish catalyst that changes the narrative. The Fed pivot is now a question of when, not if. CPI is expected to cool dramatically, reinforcing the dovish case. M2 Supply at ATH is the structural bull case. A break above 67k with volume could trigger a bullish reversal towards 70k. Until then, expect choppy action with a bullish skew.
#NFA #DYOR 🔥
Not a futures signal🛑
$ETH $BNB #cpi #macroeconomy #PPI #RetailSales