labormarket

Báo cáo thị trường lao động Mỹ (Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP) đo lường sự thay đổi ròng trong số lượng người có việc làm trên toàn nền kinh tế, bao gồm cả khu vực tư nhân và khu vực công. Điều này có nghĩa là nó cũng bao gồm nhân viên chính phủ, ngay cả những người đã bị sa thải trước đó trong một đợt đóng cửa của chính phủ và sau đó được thuê lại.
Tuy nhiên, báo cáo này có thể gây hiểu lầm hoặc phóng đại từ góc độ phân tích. NFP tính tất cả các thay đổi ròng trong việc làm, không chỉ những công việc thực sự mới được tạo ra bởi sự tăng trưởng kinh tế. Ví dụ, nếu các công nhân chính phủ bị sa thải trong một đợt đóng cửa và sau đó được thuê lại, họ lại được tính là “công việc mới” trong thống kê hàng tháng.

Labor demand is now weaker than levels seen during the 2001 recession.

US job openings just dropped to 6.5 million, falling 386,000 in December alone, the lowest level since September 2020 while over the last 2 months, openings have collapsed by 907,000.

From the March 2022 peak, job openings are now down 5.6 million, showing how fast labor demand has cooled.

Openings are now sitting below pre pandemic levels seen in 2018–2019.

This is not a good labor market anymore. It is weakening quickly. The vacancy to unemployed ratio has fallen to 0.87. That means there are fewer than 1 job available per unemployed worker.

This ratio is now:
• Below the pre pandemic high of 1.24
• Near 2021 stress levels
• Even weaker than readings seen during the 2001 recession

Challenger layoff data confirms the same trend. US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January.

That is:
• +118% higher YOY
• +205% higher MOM
• The highest January layoff total since 2009 recession

Layoffs are no longer concentrated in one sector. They are spreading. Transportation led cuts with over 31,000 layoffs. Technology followed with 22,000.

Healthcare announced 17,000, one of the most concerning signals since healthcare was the last strong hiring pillar.

Even more worrying is that companies are not planning to replace these jobs. Hiring plans announced in January were just 5,306, the lowest January hiring total on record going back to 2009 tracking.

So companies are doing two things at once: Cutting more jobs, Planning fewer hires.

JOLTS data shows hiring rates are flat. Quit rates are stuck near 2.0%, meaning workers are not confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. When quits fall while openings fall, it shows workers are defensive and firms are cautious.

This creates a frozen labor market. Low hiring. Low mobility. Rising layoff risk.

Putting all the data together:

• Job openings → falling sharply
• Vacancy ratio → below recession thresholds
• Layoffs → surging to post-GFC levels
• Hiring plans → record lows
• Quit rates → weak

The labor market has moved from cooling → contracting.

If this trend continues, it increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease faster.

But historically, the first phase of labor deterioration is risk off for markets. Only later does liquidity support arrive. For now, the signal is simple:

US labor market weakness is accelerating and recession risks are rising.
This article is my personal research and opinion, if you want to take some action try to do your own research.

#bullishleo #LaborMarket