ametisto and future canvas

🍔 La hamburguesa que desnuda la guerra mundial de las monedas

El Índice Big Mac cumple 40 años demostrando que una simple hamburguesa puede revelar profundos desequilibrios económicos. Al comparar su precio entre países, el indicador sugiere que monedas asiáticas como el yuan chino, el yen japonés y el won surcoreano están considerablemente infravaloradas frente al dólar. En cambio, el franco suizo, el euro y la libra esterlina aparecen sobrevalorados.

Un Big Mac cuesta alrededor de US$9,04 en Suiza, pero apenas US$2,38 en Indonesia. Estas diferencias reflejan salarios, productividad, inflación, costes locales y políticas cambiarias. El índice no predice con precisión el próximo movimiento del mercado, pero ayuda a entender por qué las tensiones comerciales y las acusaciones de manipulación monetaria continúan creciendo.

A veces, una hamburguesa explica la economía mundial mejor que cientos de páginas de estadísticas. 🍟🌍

#Economía #Divisas #BigMacIndex #Dólar #mercados

🍔Binance Bigmac

INVESTIDORES COMEÇAM A DUVIDAR DOS SONHOS GIGANTESCOS DE ELON MUSK

Durante anos, Elon Musk convenceu o mercado de que projetos aparentemente impossíveis — carros autônomos, robôs humanoides, inteligência artificial avançada, internet espacial e missões a Marte — poderiam se transformar em negócios trilionários. Agora, porém, parte dos investidores começa a questionar quanto custará financiar tantas ambições ao mesmo tempo.

O sinal mais recente veio da SpaceX. Mesmo após apresentar forte crescimento de receita, a companhia viu suas ações despencarem depois de revelar gastos de US$ 18,4 bilhões no segundo trimestre, grande parte destinada à infraestrutura de inteligência artificial. A empresa também registrou prejuízo líquido de US$ 541 milhões. (The Wall Street Journal)

Musk promete instalar centros de dados no espaço já em 2027 e acredita que a SpaceX poderá alcançar US$ 1 trilhão em receita anual até 2030. O problema é que essas projeções exigem investimentos colossais em chips, energia, foguetes, satélites e instalações terrestres — sem garantia de retorno rápido. (The Wall Street Journal)

A preocupação é que Tesla, SpaceX, xAI e outros projetos do bilionário estejam cada vez mais interligados, fazendo com que o risco de uma empresa seja transferido para todo o império. Musk continua vendendo uma visão extraordinária do futuro, mas Wall Street agora quer algo mais concreto: resultados, disciplina financeira e provas de que suas promessas podem finalmente acompanhar seus prazos.(The Economist)
$SPCXB $TSLAB

¿IRÁN ESTÁ REESCRIBIENDO EL MAPA DEL MEDIO ORIENTE?

Mientras el conflicto con Estados Unidos continúa, Teherán parece apostar por una estrategia que va mucho más allá del campo de batalla. El objetivo no sería únicamente resistir la presión militar, sino transformar el equilibrio de poder en toda la región. (Foreign Affairs)

Según un análisis de Newsweek, Irán intenta utilizar la guerra para aumentar el costo político y económico de cualquier nueva intervención estadounidense, al tiempo que fortalece su influencia sobre rutas estratégicas, alianzas regionales y la seguridad energética del Golfo. La presión sobre el estrecho de Ormuz se ha convertido en una de sus principales cartas de negociación. (The Wall Street Journal)

El conflicto también está obligando a los países árabes a replantear sus alianzas. Muchos buscan evitar una escalada mayor, mientras intentan proteger sus intereses económicos y de seguridad en un escenario cada vez más impredecible. (Reuters)

La gran incógnita es si esta estrategia permitirá a Irán consolidar una nueva arquitectura regional o si terminará provocando una confrontación aún más amplia, con consecuencias para los mercados energéticos y la estabilidad mundial.

LA CONFIANCE DES JUIFS AMÉRICAINS ENVERS LES INSTITUTIONS S’EFFONDRE

Aux États-Unis, une fracture profonde semble s’installer entre une partie de la communauté juive et les institutions qui structuraient autrefois sa confiance : universités, médias, partis politiques, organisations civiques et autorités publiques.

Selon une analyse publiée par Newsweek, le Michigan illustre particulièrement ce malaise. Dans cet État politiquement décisif, les tensions autour d’Israël, de Gaza et de l’antisémitisme ont transformé le débat public en terrain de confrontation permanente. Beaucoup de Juifs américains estiment désormais que leur sécurité et leurs inquiétudes sont minimisées, instrumentalisées ou évaluées selon des critères idéologiques.

Cette crise dépasse largement la politique étrangère. Elle touche au sentiment d’appartenance nationale et à la conviction que les institutions américaines sont encore capables de protéger toutes les minorités avec la même fermeté.

Le danger est considérable : lorsqu’une communauté perd confiance dans les universités, les médias, la justice ou les responsables politiques, ce n’est pas seulement sa relation avec le pouvoir qui se détériore. C’est tout le contrat démocratique qui commence à se fissurer.

META DECLARA GUERRA À OPENAI E À ANTHROPIC NO MERCADO MAIS QUENTE DA IA

A Meta acaba de lançar o Muse Code, um agente de inteligência artificial capaz de escrever, testar, corrigir e depurar códigos de maneira praticamente autônoma. A nova ferramenta entra diretamente na disputa com o Codex, da OpenAI, e o Claude Code, da Anthropic. (The Wall Street Journal)

Alimentado pelo modelo Muse Spark 1.2, o agente foi desenvolvido para executar tarefas complexas de engenharia de software, coordenar vários subagentes simultaneamente e manter um registro persistente das atividades — permitindo retomar o trabalho mesmo após interrupções ou falhas. (Reuters)

A principal arma da Meta será o preço. O serviço utilizará cobrança por consumo, com valores de aproximadamente US$ 1,25 por milhão de tokens de entrada e US$ 4,25 por milhão de tokens de saída. A empresa também prepara uma modalidade ainda mais barata para usuários que aceitarem compartilhar dados e feedbacks para aprimorar seus produtos.

O lançamento ocorre em um momento de forte pressão dos investidores para que a Meta transforme seus gastos bilionários com infraestrutura e talentos de IA em receitas concretas. A mensagem é clara: a companhia não pretende ficar restrita às redes sociais e quer disputar também o controle das ferramentas usadas para construir a próxima geração de softwares.

Dow quebra novo recorde enquanto a tecnologia perde força em Wall Street

Uma nova rodada de balanços corporativos acima das expectativas levou o Dow Jones a mais um recorde histórico. O índice avançou 0,5%, ou 263 pontos, encerrando a sessão nos 54.349 pontos. Foi a quinta alta consecutiva e o 24º fechamento recorde de 2026. (The Wall Street Journal)

Os resultados positivos de Amgen, Walt Disney e Merck ajudaram a sustentar a alta. A Disney ganhou 3,6%, beneficiada pelo desempenho de seus filmes e parques, enquanto a Eli Lilly subiu 4,9% após superar as projeções de vendas de medicamentos GLP-1.

O cenário foi bem diferente no setor tecnológico. A Alphabet caiu 4% e pressionou o Nasdaq, que recuou 0,8%. A AMD perdeu cerca de 7%, mesmo após anunciar vendas recordes, enquanto a SpaceX despencou 14% diante dos planos de aumentar agressivamente seus investimentos em inteligência artificial. (The Wall Street Journal)

A Nvidia, por outro lado, avançou 3,4% depois que Elon Musk anunciou que a SpaceX utilizaria exclusivamente seus chips. O movimento reforçou a percepção de que o crescimento da IA continua beneficiando não apenas as gigantes de tecnologia, mas também bancos, indústrias e empresas ligadas à construção da nova infraestrutura digital.

Nos mercados de commodities, o ouro saltou 3,7% e voltou a superar US$ 4.300 por onça, enquanto o cobre atingiu o recorde de US$ 6,703 por libra, impulsionado pela redução da oferta e pela crescente demanda dos centros de dados de inteligência artificial.

Wall Street continua avançando, mas a mensagem da sessão foi clara: os lucros corporativos ainda sustentam o mercado, enquanto as apostas bilionárias em IA começam a separar vencedores e perdedores.

LARRY ELLISON’S $9.8 BILLION HOLLYWOOD GAMBLE

Larry Ellison could personally absorb a staggering $9.8 billion loss if Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery collapses.

Paramount agreed to pay Warner Bros. a $7 billion termination fee if regulators prevent the merger. The company has also already paid $2.8 billion to Netflix to abandon its competing pursuit of Warner. Ellison and a family trust have guaranteed reimbursement of both amounts through the purchase of new Paramount shares.

The stakes are rising as the closing deadline has been pushed to June 2027, amid lawsuits filed by 12 US states and the Writers Guild of America. Starting October 1, Paramount may also owe Warner shareholders roughly $650 million per quarter in additional delay-related payments if the transaction eventually succeeds.

The guarantee places Ellison’s personal fortune behind his son David Ellison’s ambition to build a new entertainment empire. But the Oracle founder is already under pressure: his wealth has reportedly fallen 31% this year to $163 billion, as investors question Oracle’s massive spending on AI infrastructure and data centers.

Hollywood’s biggest takeover battle is becoming one of the most expensive family bets in corporate history.

$BTC
BITCOIN SHRUGS OFF $110 MILLION COLDCARD CRISIS AS RISK APPETITE RETURNS

Bitcoin moved higher on Tuesday, following gains across global stock markets as investors returned to risk assets amid easing geopolitical tensions and another sharp decline in oil prices.

The cryptocurrency rose 0.8% over 24 hours to approximately $63,655, leaving behind the negative reaction to the reported $110 million theft involving Coldcard wallets. Traders appear increasingly focused on the broader macroeconomic environment, including renewed diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran and strong performance from technology stocks.

Institutional demand also offered support. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $170.1 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT attracting $111.4 million. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 34 to 37, suggesting that market sentiment is gradually moving away from extreme caution.

From a technical perspective, buyers returned near the $62,000 region. Analysts are now watching resistance around $64,890, a level that could determine whether Bitcoin extends its recovery or returns to a more volatile consolidation phase.

GLOBAL MARKETS SURGE AS TRUMP DELIVERS IRAN “LAST CHANCE” ULTIMATUM

Global markets are trading higher as technology stocks rebound and investors brace for a decisive wave of corporate earnings. However, geopolitical risk remains dangerously elevated after Donald Trump confirmed that negotiations with Iran are underway and described the American proposal as a “last chance.”

In the United States, attention turns to the JOLTS job openings report, trade balance figures and factory orders. Earnings season is also accelerating, with Caterpillar, McDonald’s, HSBC, BP and AMD reporting results. The biggest event, however, will be SpaceX’s first earnings release since going public—a historic test of investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk’s space empire.

Markets may be rising, but with Iran negotiations, central-bank decisions and blockbuster earnings converging at the same time, volatility could erupt without warning.

China obtiene más inteligencia artificial por cada dólar que Estados Unidos

Mientras Estados Unidos domina la carrera de la inteligencia artificial en términos de inversión, infraestructura y potencia informática, China está demostrando que gastar más no siempre significa innovar mejor.

Según The Economist, las empresas chinas desarrollan modelos cada vez más competitivos con presupuestos muy inferiores a los de sus rivales estadounidenses. Las restricciones al acceso a chips avanzados han obligado al sector tecnológico chino a optimizar recursos, mejorar la eficiencia del software y encontrar métodos más económicos para entrenar y ejecutar sistemas de IA.

Este enfoque convierte una aparente debilidad en una ventaja estratégica. Mientras las compañías estadounidenses compiten mediante enormes centros de datos y desembolsos multimillonarios, China prioriza modelos compactos, baratos y fáciles de desplegar a gran escala.

La gran pregunta ya no es solamente qué país tiene la IA más poderosa, sino cuál puede producir más innovación con menos capital. En esa batalla por la eficiencia, China podría estar avanzando mucho más rápido de lo que Washington esperaba.

Big Oil vs. Trump: A New Political Battle Begins

Donald Trump has turned his fire on America’s biggest oil companies, accusing giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron of making “too much money” while U.S. drivers struggle with soaring gasoline prices. He urged the industry to cut fuel prices and “give some of that back to the public,” despite having long positioned himself as one of the sector’s strongest allies.

The criticism comes after blockbuster quarterly earnings fueled by elevated oil prices linked to the conflict with Iran and ongoing disruptions to global energy markets. Trump also publicly rebuked Chevron’s CEO, saying the company failed to acknowledge how his administration helped strengthen the American oil industry. (Reuters)

The episode highlights a difficult balancing act: supporting domestic energy producers while trying to keep inflation and gasoline prices under control ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. As geopolitical tensions continue to shape oil markets, the White House is now putting unprecedented public pressure on the very industry it has championed.

$BICO Biconomy had a genuinely wild June. A speculative meme coin listing tied to Scilex Holding's Dream Bowl token sparked a 76.5% price surge and a staggering 717% spike in trading volume on the Biconomy exchange — proof that the platform's listing pipeline can still move markets fast. On top of that, a foundational collaboration with the Ethereum Foundation on AI standards added a genuine long-term bullish angle, and AlphaPepe just confirmed Biconomy as one of three centralized exchanges for its upcoming presale token listing — showing the platform is still attracting fresh projects.

Alpha Market Watch

$SKYAI 🤖 stands out with a 39.77% rally backed by 7.41M in trading volume. The project combines artificial intelligence with Web3 infrastructure, positioning itself in one of the fastest-growing sectors of crypto. Strong liquidity and sustained buying pressure suggest today’s momentum could continue if AI-related tokens remain in focus.

$BTW 🛡️ gains 34.98% with 4.41M traded. Designed around decentralized finance and blockchain utility, the project has gradually expanded its ecosystem while maintaining an active community. The current breakout is supported by improving volume, making it one of today’s stronger mid-cap opportunities.

$KOMA 🦊 advances 20.89% as interest in BNB Chain meme coins remains elevated. Inspired by Japanese folklore and internet culture, the token has built a highly engaged community. Previous rallies have demonstrated its ability to attract rapid inflows, and today’s move suggests buyers are still active.

$WAXP 🎮 WAXP advances 11.97%, extending the recovery of one of the best-known blockchain ecosystems for gaming, NFTs and digital collectibles. Having processed millions of NFT transactions over the years, WAX maintains an established user base that often returns when GameFi sentiment improves.

$ROBO 🤖 Fabric Protocol climbs 14.37% despite relatively modest 1.33M volume. The protocol is building decentralized infrastructure for AI agents and robotics, including governance and machine-to-machine coordination. Recent governance upgrades and additional exchange listings have increased visibility, even as the project continues developing its long-term roadmap.

$TUT 📚 Tutorial gains 16.19% while attracting 5.38M in volume. The project focuses on blockchain education and onboarding, aiming to make crypto easier for new users through interactive learning. Educational ecosystems have attracted increasing attention during this market cycle, helping sustain buying interest.

$BICO 🪪 Biconomy leads the image with a 39.13% surge and 23.28M in trading volume. The project has long focused on simplifying Web3 through account abstraction, gasless transactions and cross-chain infrastructure. As Ethereum adoption expands, Biconomy’s technology continues to position it as a key infrastructure layer, giving today’s rally stronger fundamental support than a typical speculative spike.

The AI Empire Is Cracking: Larry Ellison Just Lost Over $200 Billion

Less than a year ago, Larry Ellison briefly held the title of the world’s richest person. Today, he has become one of the most financially exposed figures in the AI race.

Oracle has poured tens of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure, betting that explosive demand from companies like OpenAI will eventually justify the spending. But the gamble has come at a steep price. Oracle invested $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, burned $23.7 billion in free cash flow, and saw its total debt climb above $160 billion, prompting S&P to downgrade its credit rating.

The market has responded brutally. Oracle shares have plunged around 64% from their 2025 peak, while Ellison’s personal fortune has collapsed from nearly $388 billion to roughly $170 billion—erasing more than $200 billion in less than ten months.

Ironically, Oracle’s cloud business continues to expand at a remarkable pace, with cloud revenue surging 77% and contracted future revenue reaching $638 billion. The real question is whether those future cash flows will arrive in time to justify one of the biggest debt-fueled bets in tech history.

The AI revolution is creating new billionaires—but it’s also exposing how quickly fortunes can evaporate when growth depends on massive leverage. Larry Ellison’s story may be the clearest warning yet that the AI boom carries risks as enormous as its promises.
$ORCL

TRUMP RECUA? APÓS MESES DE CONFRONTO, WASHINGTON APOSTA NOVAMENTE NA DIPLOMACIA COM O IRÃ

Depois de meses de ameaças militares e sucessivas escaladas, o governo Donald Trump voltou a priorizar a via diplomática diante da dificuldade de alcançar uma vitória estratégica sobre o Irã. Segundo autoridades ouvidas pelo Wall Street Journal, a Casa Branca suspendeu uma nova ofensiva militar após apelos de aliados do Golfo, na esperança de que as negociações consigam reabrir o Estreito de Ormuz e criem as bases para um novo acordo sobre o programa nuclear iraniano.

A mudança de postura ocorre em um momento delicado. O conflito já provocou fortes impactos nos mercados de energia, elevou os riscos para o comércio internacional e aumentou a pressão política sobre Washington. Embora existam sinais de avanço nas conversas mediadas por países da região, permanecem divergências importantes, incluindo questões relacionadas à navegação comercial e às garantias exigidas por Teerã. (The Wall Street Journal)

Agora, a grande dúvida é se a diplomacia conseguirá produzir resultados duradouros ou se representa apenas uma pausa temporária antes de uma nova escalada militar. O futuro do Estreito de Ormuz, da estabilidade do mercado de petróleo e do equilíbrio geopolítico no Oriente Médio pode depender das negociações dos próximos dias.

THE AI BILLION-DOLLAR BET: ARE TECH GIANTS DELIVERING… OR JUST BURNING CASH?

Wall Street’s Q2 earnings season has been far stronger than expected—but the real story is no longer who is investing the most in AI. It’s who is actually making money from it. As of July 31, 61% of S&P 500 companies had reported results. An impressive 86% beat EPS estimates, 77% topped revenue forecasts, combined earnings surged 47.4% year-over-year, and revenue climbed 14.1%.

Those headline numbers, however, come with an important caveat. Extraordinary AI-related investment gains at Alphabet and Amazon significantly boosted the aggregate figures. Excluding those two companies, earnings growth would still stand at a robust 28.8%, proving that this is not just a story of a few mega-cap winners. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors have posted year-over-year profit growth, led by Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Materials.

The biggest winners so far are the companies turning AI into real cash flow. Microsoft and Amazon impressed with accelerating cloud demand through Azure and AWS, while Apple demonstrated resilient consumer demand across the iPhone, Mac, and Services businesses. Meta continued delivering strong advertising growth but faced pressure on free cash flow as AI spending accelerated. Meanwhile, major U.S. banks exceeded expectations thanks to stronger trading, investment banking activity, healthier net interest margins, and resilient credit quality.

The market’s message is becoming crystal clear: investors are no longer rewarding AI spending alone—they are rewarding AI profitability. Analysts now expect 27.4% earnings growth in Q3, 25.2% in Q4, and 29.1% for full-year 2026. With the S&P 500 trading around 19.6x forward earnings, valuations remain defensible—but only if companies continue converting AI investments into recurring revenue, durable margins, and sustainable cash generation.
$GOOGLB $AMZNB