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The market is now approaching one of the most important events of the week.
Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
But the key thing traders need to understand:
The rate decision itself is only part of the story.
The bigger market reaction will come from what the Fed signals about the future path of interest rates.
Current market pricing:
• 64.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged
• 35.8% probability of a rate hike
The market is currently leaning towards no change, but the uncertainty is exactly why volatility can increase around the announcement.
Why this matters for Bitcoin:
Bitcoin is a liquidity-driven asset.
When financial conditions loosen, investors typically become more willing to move into risk assets.
When the Fed stays restrictive, liquidity can tighten and markets can struggle.
The reaction tomorrow will likely come from three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Fed stays unchanged + dovish messaging
This would be the most positive outcome for risk assets.
If the Fed suggests inflation is improving or future cuts remain possible:
• Dollar weakness could increase
• Bond yields could fall
• Liquidity expectations improve
• Bitcoin could see renewed buying pressure
This would support the argument that Bitcoin’s recent consolidation is just a reset before another move higher.
Scenario 2: Fed stays unchanged + hawkish messaging
This is the outcome many traders underestimate.
The Fed could keep rates unchanged but push back against expectations for easier policy.
If that happens:
• Dollar strength could continue
• Yields could move higher
• Risk assets could face short-term pressure
• Bitcoin could retest lower support levels
The headline would look neutral, but the market reaction could still be negative.
Scenario 3: Unexpected rate hike
This would likely create the biggest volatility.
A surprise hike would signal the Fed is more concerned about inflation than market stability.
The immediate reaction could be:
• Risk-off move across markets
• Higher volatility in Bitcoin
• Possible leverage flush in derivatives
However, a sharp move lower would also need to be watched carefully, as excessive fear can create opportunities.
Our view:
The most important thing tomorrow is not predicting the exact decision.
It is watching how Bitcoin reacts after the announcement.
A strong market should be able to absorb neutral Fed news and hold support.
The key levels we are watching:
Support:
$63,000
$61,000
Resistance:
$65,700
$67,200
If Bitcoin holds support despite a cautious Fed, that would show underlying demand remains strong.
If Bitcoin loses support after hawkish comments, we could see a deeper correction before buyers step back in.
The market is not just waiting for a rate decision.
It is waiting for a signal on liquidity.
Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could determine whether Bitcoin continues building a base…
Or whether the market needs more time to reset.

There has been a lot of discussion around Bitcoin ETF flows, BlackRock’s BTC movements, and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
The key question we want to answer:
What does the available data actually tell us?
BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
The latest US Spot Bitcoin ETF session showed:
-$11.6M net outflows
While this is technically negative, the size of the move is very small compared to the total assets held across Bitcoin ETFs.
Our interpretation:
This does not currently represent a significant wave of institutional selling.
Instead, it shows that ETF demand has cooled after a stronger period of inflows.
The key thing we are monitoring is whether outflows continue to increase or whether demand returns after the FOMC uncertainty passes.
BLACKROCK BTC MOVEMENT
A lot of attention has focused on BlackRock moving approximately 3,300 BTC to Coinbase.
The assumption being made:
“Bitcoin was moved to Coinbase, therefore BlackRock is selling.”
However, a blockchain transfer alone does not confirm the reason behind the movement.
The transfer could represent:
• Custody management
• Internal wallet movements
• Liquidity management
• Potential buying or selling activity
Jordan believes this could potentially indicate BlackRock preparing to sell.
Our view at Chart House Research:
The current data does not confirm that conclusion.
The more reliable indicator is the actual ETF flow data.
At the moment, ETF flows are not showing a large-scale institutional exit from Bitcoin.
FOMC MEETING
The Federal Reserve meeting remains the biggest short-term market catalyst.
Current market pricing suggests:
• No rate change is the expected outcome.
• There is still a market-implied probability of a surprise hike.
A surprise rate hike would likely create volatility because it would differ from the market’s current expectation.
The main focus should be on the Fed’s communication around future policy.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BITCOIN
The key relationship to understand:
Fed policy = Interest rates = Dollar strength = Liquidity conditions = Risk assets
A more neutral Fed message could reduce uncertainty and potentially support risk appetite.
A more hawkish message could strengthen the dollar and create pressure across risk assets.
OUR VIEW
The current market narrative is becoming more speculative than the actual data suggests.
What we know:
• ETF outflows remain relatively small.
• BlackRock’s BTC movement does not prove selling.
• Current ETF data does not show aggressive institutional distribution.
• The FOMC decision and guidance remain the main short-term catalyst.
Where we differ:
Jordan is placing more emphasis on the possibility that BlackRock’s BTC movement signals selling.
We believe the available evidence does not confirm that.
Right now, the market appears to be waiting for clarity rather than showing clear signs of institutional exit.
The next major signals to watch:
• ETF flows after the FOMC.
• Bitcoin price reaction around key technical levels.
• Dollar strength and broader liquidity conditions.
The market will ultimately be decided by the data, not the narrative.